War in Chechnya to end soon unlikely

By Barry Renfrew

MOSCOW (AP): The battle for Grozny may be in its final throes, but the war in Chechnya is likely to grind on for as long as Russian forces remain in the breakaway republic.

The Russian military is still far from its key objectives of destroying the Chechen forces and ending the republic's separatist movement. In Grozny, one of the world's largest armies failed to defeat a few thousand guerrillas, who had no tanks, planes or heavy weapons.

Hundreds of rebel fighters pulled out of Grozny on Monday after holding off the Russian military for four months despite devastating artillery and air attacks that destroyed much of the Chechen capital. Some Chechen forces remained in the city to go on fighting.

The Russian high command, instead of being jubilant, tried to play down the development. The Russians' main goal was to trap the Chechen forces and destroy them -- a breakout was the last thing Moscow wanted.

Russia thought it had crushed the Chechens after Grozny fell in 1995 during the first Chechen war. But the Chechens retreated to the mountains and went on fighting until they retook Grozny in 1996 and compelled Russian forces to pull out of the territory.

The rebel fighters who escaped Grozny can now join the rebel forces in the south of the republic. Many of the fighters who came out of Grozny showed no sign of giving up the fight.

Rebel commanders never intended to mount a suicidal defense of Grozny. Their aim was to fight long enough to inflict heavy losses on the Russians, who did lose hundreds of men in the battle.

Grozny was an ideal battlefield for the rebels. The Russian military has lots of tanks and planes, but its ill-trained conscript soldiers were little match for the rebels in street fighting.

But the rebels also paid a price for their defense of Grozny. The rebels admit that they lost lots of fighters and their supplies ran very low during the battle.

Several prominent Chechen field commanders, including some of the most militant leaders, reportedly were killed or wounded in the breakout. Such men played a major role in the Chechen struggle and their loss would be a serious setback.

The deaths of some of the top Chechen radicals could clear the way for a political deal between Moscow and Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov, who is regarded as a moderate.

Acting President Vladimir Putin, who faces presidential elections March 26, may try to use the fall of Grozny to say that his military has triumphed and that some kind of political settlement can now be considered. Or the Russian military may have to go on fighting until it destroys the rebels.

Maskhadov, aware that Chechnya is in terrible condition after years of war and endemic lawlessness, may want an accommodation. But he is unlikely to give up Chechen demands for independence. If he does, other Chechens will repudiate Maskhadov and continue to fight the Russians.

For more than a century, the Chechens have been fighting the Russians for their independence. There is little sign that they will give up that struggle now.