VP's role to increase in future

By Hermawan Sulistyo

JAKARTA (JP): The life expectancy for men in Indonesia is 54, while for its women it is 57. It is particularly due to this statistic that people easily believe the rumors concerning President Soeharto's deteriorating health, despite repeated official announcements stating the contrary. The president is now 76 years old.

It is not important whether the rumors are true or not. What is important is the dwindling "rate of trust" believed by many observers to have played a central role in the recent sharp fluctuations of the rupiah's exchange rate.

Speculation abounds over what might happen during the next presidential term, especially after the President's own announcement that he would take a "priestly position" in the national leadership. Using Javanese political parlance, President Soeharto said that he would prefer the process of lengser keprabon, madheg pandito. Literally, the phrase means to step down from the (administrative) post to take a priestly position as guardian of the nation's political morality.

The president's words give credence to some of the existing political predictions, all of which contain one definite condition: that Soeharto would still assume the presidential position while fulfilling whatever other roles he would create for himself.

The first and the most conventional scenario is that in the next five years, Soeharto would run his administration as he has during his previous terms. This would mean that there would be no significant change in the handling of governmental affairs and no apparent shifts of economic as well as political policies.

In this scenario, all significant changes would occur only at the end of the next five-year term in 2003. After that year, Soeharto would start to play a role as the nation's moral guardian. He would not be involved in the everyday political decision-making process, but all significant political decisions would still be passed to him for his consent.

What role would the vice president assume during the term when President Soeharto is continuing to run the administration as before?

The scenario implies that he would undergo a more intense "internship" than before. If he successfully passes the "internship", he would likely be the unchallenged contender for the next presidential election in 2003. The most prominent defect of this scenario, is that it would be very unlikely that President Soeharto would be able to keep up with the increasing complexities of his duties due to his age.

A second scenario is that President Soeharto would increasingly reduce his role in his next term. Day-to-day administrative duties, particularly those concerning political affairs, would be slowly handed over to the hands of the vice president and secretary of state affairs (not the American "style" secretary of state which means the minister for foreign affairs).

Soeharto would then assume a similar position as a senior minister, much the same way as Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore did, although his official title would still be President. Again, it is unlikely that Soeharto would have the physical endurance to keep pace with such duties.

Instead of retiring "Singaporean style", the more likely situation would be that Soeharto would later transform himself into the Thai type of political patriarch. A role much like the Thai king would be physically "affordable" for President Soeharto. He would not have to make day-to-day decisions but would remain the last person to ask for any significant decisions.

It seems that these two scenarios are replacing an older scenario believed to be the most likely during President Soeharto's last two terms. According to this older scenario, Soeharto would step down in the course of his term and hand over all presidential power to his vice president. This scenario has it that an upcoming vice president would become the real president.

This scenario was popular for one reason: that the most important qualification for a vice presidential candidate was his ability to "work closely" with the president. Thus, a vice president in the next term would be a kind of crown prince, chosen more by the "king" than by popular consent. Continuous consultation then was a must for balancing what the President wanted and what the public showed to be its hopes through the election process.

Whatever scenario may apply, one thing is clear: the role of the next vice president will be decisive.

Previously, the vice president's role was more ceremonial and less operational. In the future, the vice president will take more administrative roles, regardless whether in fact he would take the office of the president. This further means that one of the measures of his success story will lie in his ability to exert control over the cabinet.

After the question of the role of the vice president, the test of whether the cabinet could be controlled by someone other than the president would be the next important question in the near future. The formation of the cabinet, according to the law, is the president's prerogative. A vice president has no control whatsoever over the composition of the cabinet. If he would later have to control the cabinet, then his task would be more difficult. A power struggle could result involving some strong cabinet ministers who may feel that they would be able to contest the vice president's power.

In view of such a possible situation, a vice president should be a man of politics, but many expect that he would also need to be a man of economics. The latter is crucial considering the current economic crisis and the upcoming economic liberalization.

A vice president, being the most potential candidate for the next president, would therefore be required to at least know more about the mechanics of economics and ideally be able to lead his administration to confront world competition. He would also be a good manager -- "a rational man" in every sense.

These important requirements for the next vice president makes the topic the most heated political issue for the coming months and even years. Speculation is increasing over who would be the best candidate for the position. Not many citizens have the privilege of being on the popular list. Among those are B.J. Habibie, Edi Sudradjat, Ginandjar Kartasasmita, R. Hartono, Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana, Moerdiono and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, in addition to Try Sutrisno himself. Previously mentioned names also included Harmoko and even Abdurrahman Wahid.

The bid for vice president has now become much more open than ever before. Many political factions and interest groups are more willing to discuss possible options for the candidates.

Habibie is still considered by many observers as one of the strongest candidates, but some recent financial and labor problems (two big labor strikes in IPTN Bandung and PT PAL Surabaya) with his high-tech enterprises may have hampered his chances.

Edi Sudradjat, the current defense minister, is increasingly popular among various interest groups. West Java's branch of Nahdlatul Ulama, the Islamic traditional organization and the largest mass organization, has forwarded Sudrajat's name for the vice presidency. Minister of Planning Ginandjar Kartasasmita is also a strong candidate. Like Habibie, his background and expertise provide him with some essential tools to lead the country in the post-Soeharto era.

Minister of Information Hartono is a "new player" on the list, but his recent political career is skyrocketing. His chances are difficult to predict because his political influence over larger segments of society is still to be seen. Minister of State Moerdiono is another long-time-mentioned candidate, although his chances seem to be waning.

Meanwhile, Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana, better known as Mbak Tutut, President Soeharto's eldest daughter, has often been mentioned as a possible future leader. But, President Soeharto would be too wise to deliver the chance to her now.

Then, there is S.B. Yudhoyono, the youngest candidate on the list. He is very young compared to the other candidates, but he is definitely a favorite among segments of the younger generation. Harmoko, assuming the role as the Speaker of the House, is almost definitely out of the question.

The least discussed name on the list is Vice President Try Sutrisno. Many believe that his current term of office is his last. But he is a man of balance. His reputation as a good man, devout Moslem and humble person overshadows his able managerial skills, making him one of a very few leaders who would be accepted among more than one political faction. His increasing roles to replace President Soeharto in recent occasions is a hint toward a better chance for a "man of balance".

Who will be the next vice president? Whoever he is, his position will be very strategic and much more important than vice presidents before him. But many observers unreasonably fear that there will be no continuity in economic and political policies when the next administration begins its term of office. Looking at the possible existing scenarios, this fear is baseless.

Hermawan Sulistyo, Ph.D., is a researcher with the Center for Political and Area Studies at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences.