VP's role to increase in future

VP's role to increase in future

By Hermawan Sulistyo

JAKARTA (JP): The life expectancy for men in Indonesia is 54,
while for its women it is 57. It is particularly due to this
statistic that people easily believe the rumors concerning
President Soeharto's deteriorating health, despite repeated
official announcements stating the contrary. The president is now
76 years old.

It is not important whether the rumors are true or not. What
is important is the dwindling "rate of trust" believed by many
observers to have played a central role in the recent sharp
fluctuations of the rupiah's exchange rate.

Speculation abounds over what might happen during the next
presidential term, especially after the President's own
announcement that he would take a "priestly position" in the
national leadership. Using Javanese political parlance, President
Soeharto said that he would prefer the process of lengser
keprabon, madheg pandito. Literally, the phrase means to step
down from the (administrative) post to take a priestly position
as guardian of the nation's political morality.

The president's words give credence to some of the existing
political predictions, all of which contain one definite
condition: that Soeharto would still assume the presidential
position while fulfilling whatever other roles he would create
for himself.

The first and the most conventional scenario is that in the
next five years, Soeharto would run his administration as he has
during his previous terms. This would mean that there would be no
significant change in the handling of governmental affairs and no
apparent shifts of economic as well as political policies.

In this scenario, all significant changes would occur only at
the end of the next five-year term in 2003. After that year,
Soeharto would start to play a role as the nation's moral
guardian. He would not be involved in the everyday political
decision-making process, but all significant political decisions
would still be passed to him for his consent.

What role would the vice president assume during the term when
President Soeharto is continuing to run the administration as
before?

The scenario implies that he would undergo a more intense
"internship" than before. If he successfully passes the
"internship", he would likely be the unchallenged contender for
the next presidential election in 2003. The most prominent defect
of this scenario, is that it would be very unlikely that
President Soeharto would be able to keep up with the increasing
complexities of his duties due to his age.

A second scenario is that President Soeharto would
increasingly reduce his role in his next term. Day-to-day
administrative duties, particularly those concerning political
affairs, would be slowly handed over to the hands of the vice
president and secretary of state affairs (not the American
"style" secretary of state which means the minister for foreign
affairs).

Soeharto would then assume a similar position as a senior
minister, much the same way as Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore did,
although his official title would still be President. Again, it
is unlikely that Soeharto would have the physical endurance to
keep pace with such duties.

Instead of retiring "Singaporean style", the more likely
situation would be that Soeharto would later transform himself
into the Thai type of political patriarch. A role much like the
Thai king would be physically "affordable" for President
Soeharto. He would not have to make day-to-day decisions but
would remain the last person to ask for any significant
decisions.

It seems that these two scenarios are replacing an older
scenario believed to be the most likely during President
Soeharto's last two terms. According to this older scenario,
Soeharto would step down in the course of his term and hand over
all presidential power to his vice president. This scenario has
it that an upcoming vice president would become the real
president.

This scenario was popular for one reason: that the most
important qualification for a vice presidential candidate was his
ability to "work closely" with the president. Thus, a vice
president in the next term would be a kind of crown prince,
chosen more by the "king" than by popular consent. Continuous
consultation then was a must for balancing what the President
wanted and what the public showed to be its hopes through the
election process.

Whatever scenario may apply, one thing is clear: the role of
the next vice president will be decisive.

Previously, the vice president's role was more ceremonial and
less operational. In the future, the vice president will take
more administrative roles, regardless whether in fact he would
take the office of the president. This further means that one of
the measures of his success story will lie in his ability to
exert control over the cabinet.

After the question of the role of the vice president, the test
of whether the cabinet could be controlled by someone other than
the president would be the next important question in the near
future. The formation of the cabinet, according to the law, is
the president's prerogative. A vice president has no control
whatsoever over the composition of the cabinet. If he would later
have to control the cabinet, then his task would be more
difficult. A power struggle could result involving some strong
cabinet ministers who may feel that they would be able to contest
the vice president's power.

In view of such a possible situation, a vice president should
be a man of politics, but many expect that he would also need to
be a man of economics. The latter is crucial considering the
current economic crisis and the upcoming economic liberalization.

A vice president, being the most potential candidate for the
next president, would therefore be required to at least know more
about the mechanics of economics and ideally be able to lead his
administration to confront world competition. He would also be a
good manager -- "a rational man" in every sense.

These important requirements for the next vice president makes
the topic the most heated political issue for the coming months
and even years. Speculation is increasing over who would be the
best candidate for the position. Not many citizens have the
privilege of being on the popular list. Among those are B.J.
Habibie, Edi Sudradjat, Ginandjar Kartasasmita, R. Hartono, Siti
Hardiyanti Rukmana, Moerdiono and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, in
addition to Try Sutrisno himself. Previously mentioned names also
included Harmoko and even Abdurrahman Wahid.

The bid for vice president has now become much more open than
ever before. Many political factions and interest groups are more
willing to discuss possible options for the candidates.

Habibie is still considered by many observers as one of the
strongest candidates, but some recent financial and labor
problems (two big labor strikes in IPTN Bandung and PT PAL
Surabaya) with his high-tech enterprises may have hampered his
chances.

Edi Sudradjat, the current defense minister, is increasingly
popular among various interest groups. West Java's branch of
Nahdlatul Ulama, the Islamic traditional organization and the
largest mass organization, has forwarded Sudrajat's name for the
vice presidency. Minister of Planning Ginandjar Kartasasmita is
also a strong candidate. Like Habibie, his background and
expertise provide him with some essential tools to lead the
country in the post-Soeharto era.

Minister of Information Hartono is a "new player" on the list,
but his recent political career is skyrocketing. His chances are
difficult to predict because his political influence over larger
segments of society is still to be seen. Minister of State
Moerdiono is another long-time-mentioned candidate, although his
chances seem to be waning.

Meanwhile, Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana, better known as Mbak
Tutut, President Soeharto's eldest daughter, has often been
mentioned as a possible future leader. But, President Soeharto
would be too wise to deliver the chance to her now.

Then, there is S.B. Yudhoyono, the youngest candidate on the
list. He is very young compared to the other candidates, but he
is definitely a favorite among segments of the younger
generation. Harmoko, assuming the role as the Speaker of the
House, is almost definitely out of the question.

The least discussed name on the list is Vice President Try
Sutrisno. Many believe that his current term of office is his
last. But he is a man of balance. His reputation as a good man,
devout Moslem and humble person overshadows his able managerial
skills, making him one of a very few leaders who would be
accepted among more than one political faction. His increasing
roles to replace President Soeharto in recent occasions is a hint
toward a better chance for a "man of balance".

Who will be the next vice president? Whoever he is, his
position will be very strategic and much more important than vice
presidents before him. But many observers unreasonably fear that
there will be no continuity in economic and political policies
when the next administration begins its term of office. Looking
at the possible existing scenarios, this fear is baseless.

Hermawan Sulistyo, Ph.D., is a researcher with the Center for
Political and Area Studies at the Indonesian Institute of
Sciences.