Vote of no confidence

The decision by the House of Representatives to issue a second motion of censure against President Abdurrahman Wahid on Monday really amounted to a vote of no confidence in his ability to lead this country. This much is clear from the opinions of the majority of the factions when they gave their views about the President's response to the first memorandum. If the first memorandum focused on the alleged role or the alleged indications of the President's involvement in two corruption scandals -- Buloggate and Bruneigate -- the second memorandum appeared to have focused solely on his leadership, or lack of it, especially in the three months since the first motion was issued.

By issuing the second censure motion, the House has taken the battle in the ongoing power struggle with the President to a new stage, although it does not necessarily mean that the end is in sight. What it does mean is that Abdurrahman's credibility and political legitimacy have been further eroded, which will make his leadership even more difficult, with all the consequences for the country that this entails. What it does mean is that the people in this country must be prepared for an even bumpier ride between now and the conclusion of this power struggle, whenever that may be.

Without credibility, or popular and political support, Abdurrahman today is left with only formal constitutional legitimacy to govern, the mandate that he received from the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) in October 1999. While this may be enough for him to keep the presidency, it is hardly sufficient to ensure an effective administration, something that has been missing in Indonesia for several months now.

Following the second censure motion, the most frequently asked question in Indonesia is "What's next?" This is something that President Abdurrahman, more than anybody else in this country, can determine. Several scenarios have been postulated, and their likelihood depends largely on what options the President takes.

Constitutionally, the President has one month to respond to the second censure motion. Given the level of enmity between the President and the major House factions, it is very likely that the House will reject whatever response he gives. Anything short of his resignation will prompt the House to call for an extraordinary session of the MPR to impeach the President.

While this is indeed the proper constitutional mechanism to unseat a serving president, few people in this country would like to see this happen for it would tarnish the nation's reputation and leave a deep national wound that would take time to heal. It is also inconceivable that the President would want to be remembered in history more for his impeachment than for the contributions he has made in the nation-building process, which are immense even despite all the shortcomings of his leadership.

The second most often postulated scenario is for the President to step down rather than face impeachment by the MPR. This option, which has been made available to him since the first censure motion was issued in February, provides him with a graceful exit. It is also a path that even some of his close friends, and not only his political adversaries, have asked him to consider, not only for the good of the nation, but also for the good of Abdurrahman and his die-hard supporters in the Nahdlatul Ulama.

A third scenario is for Abdurrahman to share power with Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri. The idea here is for Abdurrahman to assume the role of a figurehead president, leaving all the decisions and running of the government to Megawati.

There is a fourth and worst-case scenario emerging from the present situation, and that is for an outbreak of violent clashes between supporters and opponents of the President. The mobilization of supporters remains the preferred means for politicians in this country to flex their muscles, and the President, as well as some of his opponents, have been equally guilty for resorting to this primitive practice. Let us hope that these politicians have much more common sense than to allow massive bloodshed to be perpetrated on their accounts. Let us hope that they will be able to control and restrain their supporters in time.

Whichever scenario emerges, Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri, who is also chairperson of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) will succeed Abdurrahman as President if and when he steps down one way or another. This is not a mean feat by any measure because Megawati will inherit a nation that is not only deeply entrenched in economic crisis, but also politically fractured, perhaps even more so than when Abdurrahman took power 17 months ago.

Since it is now clear that a transition of power is not only inevitable, but also necessary, the best thing that the President and all the other political factions can do is to ensure that the changeover be made as smooth as possible, not for Megawati's sake, but more for the sake of the entire nation, our nation.