Vote of no confidence

Vote of no confidence

The decision by the House of Representatives to issue a second
motion of censure against President Abdurrahman Wahid on Monday
really amounted to a vote of no confidence in his ability to lead
this country. This much is clear from the opinions of the
majority of the factions when they gave their views about the
President's response to the first memorandum. If the first
memorandum focused on the alleged role or the alleged indications
of the President's involvement in two corruption scandals --
Buloggate and Bruneigate -- the second memorandum appeared to
have focused solely on his leadership, or lack of it, especially
in the three months since the first motion was issued.

By issuing the second censure motion, the House has taken the
battle in the ongoing power struggle with the President to a new
stage, although it does not necessarily mean that the end is in
sight. What it does mean is that Abdurrahman's credibility and
political legitimacy have been further eroded, which will make
his leadership even more difficult, with all the consequences for
the country that this entails. What it does mean is that the
people in this country must be prepared for an even bumpier ride
between now and the conclusion of this power struggle, whenever
that may be.

Without credibility, or popular and political support,
Abdurrahman today is left with only formal constitutional
legitimacy to govern, the mandate that he received from the
People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) in October 1999. While this
may be enough for him to keep the presidency, it is hardly
sufficient to ensure an effective administration, something that
has been missing in Indonesia for several months now.

Following the second censure motion, the most frequently asked
question in Indonesia is "What's next?" This is something that
President Abdurrahman, more than anybody else in this country,
can determine. Several scenarios have been postulated, and their
likelihood depends largely on what options the President takes.

Constitutionally, the President has one month to respond to
the second censure motion. Given the level of enmity between the
President and the major House factions, it is very likely that
the House will reject whatever response he gives. Anything short
of his resignation will prompt the House to call for an
extraordinary session of the MPR to impeach the President.

While this is indeed the proper constitutional mechanism to
unseat a serving president, few people in this country would like
to see this happen for it would tarnish the nation's reputation
and leave a deep national wound that would take time to heal. It
is also inconceivable that the President would want to be
remembered in history more for his impeachment than for the
contributions he has made in the nation-building process, which
are immense even despite all the shortcomings of his leadership.

The second most often postulated scenario is for the President
to step down rather than face impeachment by the MPR. This
option, which has been made available to him since the first
censure motion was issued in February, provides him with a
graceful exit. It is also a path that even some of his close
friends, and not only his political adversaries, have asked him
to consider, not only for the good of the nation, but also for
the good of Abdurrahman and his die-hard supporters in the
Nahdlatul Ulama.

A third scenario is for Abdurrahman to share power with Vice
President Megawati Soekarnoputri. The idea here is for
Abdurrahman to assume the role of a figurehead president, leaving
all the decisions and running of the government to Megawati.

There is a fourth and worst-case scenario emerging from the
present situation, and that is for an outbreak of violent clashes
between supporters and opponents of the President. The
mobilization of supporters remains the preferred means for
politicians in this country to flex their muscles, and the
President, as well as some of his opponents, have been equally
guilty for resorting to this primitive practice. Let us hope that
these politicians have much more common sense than to allow
massive bloodshed to be perpetrated on their accounts. Let us
hope that they will be able to control and restrain their
supporters in time.

Whichever scenario emerges, Vice President Megawati
Soekarnoputri, who is also chairperson of the Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) will succeed
Abdurrahman as President if and when he steps down one way or
another. This is not a mean feat by any measure because Megawati
will inherit a nation that is not only deeply entrenched in
economic crisis, but also politically fractured, perhaps even
more so than when Abdurrahman took power 17 months ago.

Since it is now clear that a transition of power is not only
inevitable, but also necessary, the best thing that the President
and all the other political factions can do is to ensure that the
changeover be made as smooth as possible, not for Megawati's
sake, but more for the sake of the entire nation, our nation.