Volcano warning system

The way people look at the apocalyptic Dec. 26 tsunami in Aceh has changed somewhat. With a magnitude of 9 on the Richter scale, the catastrophe looks like the apex of a string of major earthquakes in this archipelago, both before and after Boxing day.

We cannot get away completely from the fury of nature. What we can do is to limit, in so far as possible, the number of victims and the people's suffering.

This seemingly endless string of earthquakes calls for extra efforts from the volcanology experts. While a tsunami early- warning system is being put in place to prevent any recurrence of the Aceh tsunami, the efforts to reduce the number of victims of volcanic eruptions have a longer history.

In the easternmost part of Indonesia, a 6.4-magnitude tremor jolted the Papuan town of Nabire in November killing at least 32 people and injuring hundreds of others. In the same month, an earthquake of similar magnitude shook the East Nusa Tenggara island of Alor, also in the eastern part of the archipelago, killing at least 36 people and injuring thousands of others.

After the colossal Aceh tsunami that killed more than 129,000 people, an 8.7-magnitude tremor struck nearby Nias island on March 29, killing more than 1,000 people.

Last week, 3.2- and 4.0-magnitude quakes jolted the Southeast Sulawesi town of Kendari causing panic across the town. After recurrent tremors across many cities in Sumatra, the 2,500-meter Mount Talang, located near the city of Padang, erupted on Tuesday. Increased activity has since been detected in several other volcanoes. The famous Mount Krakatau in the Sunda Strait, sandwiched between Java and Sumatra, and Mount Tangkuban Perahu near Bandung in West Java, are all on level 3 alert. This is only one level below the highest alert.

Famous for their superstitious ways, Indonesians are asking what all this means, and when will it end?

The number of victims is often linked to the magnitude of a disaster. The bigger the number of victims, the greater the magnitude of the disaster, in the popular imagination. The physical and psychological sufferings of survivors tend to pale in comparison to the total number of victims.

In reality, the total number of victims is only one element to be used in assessing the misery inflicted upon people. Survivors experience horrible suffering after disasters. The people of Nias, for example, were terrified that the earthquake that struck their island would be followed by a tsunami, as was the case in Aceh. It was fortunate that the feared tidal wave did not materialize but the people have been living in intense fear ever since.

The ceaseless aftershocks experienced by the Acehnese even today continuously refresh the memory of the catastrophe in their minds. The psychological trauma suffered by the survivors will take years to heal.

In nearby Simeulue island, nearly the entire population of 78,000 people left the island for fear of a tsunami, just days after an earthquake struck Nias island. Tales of suffering in the places where the survivors end up, like Batam island or Medan, are indicative of their plight.

Ever since the colonial period, governments have been aware of the dangers posed by the country's more than 100 volcanoes.

This is the reason why Mount Merapi on Java island, near the city of Yogyakarta, is a world-renowned center for the study of volcanoes. The experts working there undoubtedly have an important role to play in warning the potential victims of the dangers they face.

But they need to make their warnings louder. The latest eruption of Mount Talang has shown that, to say the least, their voices have been rather subdued. Stronger warnings from the volcanology experts are badly needed, particularly at the present time, or otherwise the people will fall prey to all kinds of rumors, and irresponsible rumormongers.