Violence can flare up where it's least expected

Violence can flare up where it's least expected

JAKARTA (JP): The threat of outbreaks of violence and public
unrest now hang over the entire archipelago, according to a noted
observer.

"Anywhere could be affected," said Loekman Soetrisno, a
professor of sociology at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta.

Loekman told The Jakarta Post earlier that recent outbreaks of
violence were the result of increasing difficulty faced by the
ordinary citizens of Indonesia, and not through an intolerance of
different cultures and beliefs.

This week's clashes in Ambon, Maluku, had left 22 people dead
as of Thursday. The violence, which was reportedly triggered by a
personal dispute between youths from neighboring hamlets,
intensified after rumors circulated that mosques and churches in
the area had been vandalized and set on fire.

The clashes were the latest in a serious of riots, ethnic and
religious violence, and bloody feuds which has swept the country.

Last November, 14 people died during clashes in the Ketapang
area of Jakarta. During the trouble, 22 churches were either
looted and vandalized or set on fire.

Shortly afterwards, rioting erupted in Kupang, East Nusa
Tenggara, during which mobs burned or damaged six mosques in what
appeared to be in retaliation for the churches attacked in
Jakarta. A church was also damaged in Ujungpandang, South
Sulawesi.

Before clashes began to take on religious connotations towards
the end of last year, outbreaks of looting in which Chinese-
Indonesian businesses and properties were predominantly targeted
became commonplace around the country, particularly in Java.

Crops were plundered from fields and estates, symbols of the
government were vandalized and hundreds of Muslim clerics and
alleged practitioners of black magic were slaughtered in an
unexplained murder spree centering around East Java.

In Blora, Central Java, farmers angered by the removal of
subsidies on fertilizers and pesticides went on the rampage in
December last year.

Rizaldi Boer, an expert from Bogor Institute of Agriculture
told The Jakarta Post on Thursday that it would be vitally
important to ensure both fertilizers and pesticides were
available at affordable prices in the months ahead.

The removal of fertilizer and pesticide subsidies was "ill-
timed", Rizaldi said, adding that the government should have
waited until after the main harvest.

Experts believe the unrest sweeping the country has been
prompted by the country's worst economic crisis in over three
decades coupled with a political vacuum left by the resignation
of former president Soeharto last May after 32 years in power.

A number of observers have alleged that at least some of the
violence has been incited by groups within the political elite.

Worsen

Many analysts expect the violence to worsen as the June 7
general election approaches.

The security forces have shown they are unable, and in some
cases unwilling, to stop much of the violence.

"The security forces must strive to restore their lost
authority ... not through violence, but through a show of honesty
and courage," Loekman said.

This, he believed, would earn the security forces the public
support they badly need to uphold law and order.

Unrest often springs from long-held animosity between rival
religious and ethnic groups, This, he said, could lead to clashes
erupting almost without warning.

Loekman emphasized the role played by "chronic poverty" and a
"concentration of hardline religious sentiment", which he said
were key factors behind the violence.

Loekman said that examples of such areas could be found in
Java, Kalimantan, Sumatra, Sulawesi and Irian Jaya.

In Java, Loekman drew attention to a number of areas along the
northern coast in which poverty is rife, particularly in the
regencies of Pekalongan and Kendal in Central Java.

Potential flashpoints on the south coast lie in towns like
Cilacap and Tasikmalaya near the boundary between Central and
West Java.

The formerly peaceful fishing town of Cilacap was gripped by
rioting last August after resentment held against fishermen from
outside the area erupted in an outbreak of mob violence.

"There is a high poverty rate there," Loekman said.

In East Java, Loekman cited Pasuruan, Jember and Bondowoso,
where there are large populations of Madurese people, who were
considered to be aggressive.

In Kalimantan, he said that West Kalimantan harbored a potent
threat of unrest due to the simmering feud between immigrant
Madurese and the indigenous Dayaks.

In Sumatra, Lampung remains vulnerable due to its high
population density and multi-cultural hinterland, according to
Loekman.

Both Irian Jaya and Sulawesi were singled out because of
tension between indigenous people and more affluent groups of
migrants.

As an example, Loekman pointed to the latest incident in Luwu,
South Sulawesi, where a richer migrant community from Toraja has
borne the brunt of the wrath of the area's less affluent
indigenous inhabitants. Fighting among rival factions there left
six dead in the run-up to Idul Fitri.

In Irian Jaya, he said, poorer indigenous tribespeople
resented migrants creaming off wealth from their natural
resources and sending it out of the province.

Loekman said that while "affirmative action" was needed to
improve the welfare of the indigenous inhabitants of Indonesia's
eastern provinces, he pointed out that migrants should be
encouraged to distribute some of their wealth among indigenous
people by providing them with employment.

Among the most turbulent spots in the archipelago will be
Jakarta, he said, warning that the calm of Ramadhan would be
broken by a resumption of student protests after the Idul Fitri
holiday.

As in other major urban centers, anger over high prices and
unemployment prompted widespread looting and rioting in the
capital last year. This, he said, would continue if the economy
continued to worsen.

Many city residents expect further rises in crime and fear
that the situation will get even worse once the government
deploys a civilian militia around the country to boost the
security forces.

Other undisputed hot spots are in the provinces of Aceh and
East Timor. (aan)