Violence can flare up where it's least expected
JAKARTA (JP): The threat of outbreaks of violence and public unrest now hang over the entire archipelago, according to a noted observer.
"Anywhere could be affected," said Loekman Soetrisno, a professor of sociology at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta.
Loekman told The Jakarta Post earlier that recent outbreaks of violence were the result of increasing difficulty faced by the ordinary citizens of Indonesia, and not through an intolerance of different cultures and beliefs.
This week's clashes in Ambon, Maluku, had left 22 people dead as of Thursday. The violence, which was reportedly triggered by a personal dispute between youths from neighboring hamlets, intensified after rumors circulated that mosques and churches in the area had been vandalized and set on fire.
The clashes were the latest in a serious of riots, ethnic and religious violence, and bloody feuds which has swept the country.
Last November, 14 people died during clashes in the Ketapang area of Jakarta. During the trouble, 22 churches were either looted and vandalized or set on fire.
Shortly afterwards, rioting erupted in Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara, during which mobs burned or damaged six mosques in what appeared to be in retaliation for the churches attacked in Jakarta. A church was also damaged in Ujungpandang, South Sulawesi.
Before clashes began to take on religious connotations towards the end of last year, outbreaks of looting in which Chinese- Indonesian businesses and properties were predominantly targeted became commonplace around the country, particularly in Java.
Crops were plundered from fields and estates, symbols of the government were vandalized and hundreds of Muslim clerics and alleged practitioners of black magic were slaughtered in an unexplained murder spree centering around East Java.
In Blora, Central Java, farmers angered by the removal of subsidies on fertilizers and pesticides went on the rampage in December last year.
Rizaldi Boer, an expert from Bogor Institute of Agriculture told The Jakarta Post on Thursday that it would be vitally important to ensure both fertilizers and pesticides were available at affordable prices in the months ahead.
The removal of fertilizer and pesticide subsidies was "ill- timed", Rizaldi said, adding that the government should have waited until after the main harvest.
Experts believe the unrest sweeping the country has been prompted by the country's worst economic crisis in over three decades coupled with a political vacuum left by the resignation of former president Soeharto last May after 32 years in power.
A number of observers have alleged that at least some of the violence has been incited by groups within the political elite.
Worsen
Many analysts expect the violence to worsen as the June 7 general election approaches.
The security forces have shown they are unable, and in some cases unwilling, to stop much of the violence.
"The security forces must strive to restore their lost authority ... not through violence, but through a show of honesty and courage," Loekman said.
This, he believed, would earn the security forces the public support they badly need to uphold law and order.
Unrest often springs from long-held animosity between rival religious and ethnic groups, This, he said, could lead to clashes erupting almost without warning.
Loekman emphasized the role played by "chronic poverty" and a "concentration of hardline religious sentiment", which he said were key factors behind the violence.
Loekman said that examples of such areas could be found in Java, Kalimantan, Sumatra, Sulawesi and Irian Jaya.
In Java, Loekman drew attention to a number of areas along the northern coast in which poverty is rife, particularly in the regencies of Pekalongan and Kendal in Central Java.
Potential flashpoints on the south coast lie in towns like Cilacap and Tasikmalaya near the boundary between Central and West Java.
The formerly peaceful fishing town of Cilacap was gripped by rioting last August after resentment held against fishermen from outside the area erupted in an outbreak of mob violence.
"There is a high poverty rate there," Loekman said.
In East Java, Loekman cited Pasuruan, Jember and Bondowoso, where there are large populations of Madurese people, who were considered to be aggressive.
In Kalimantan, he said that West Kalimantan harbored a potent threat of unrest due to the simmering feud between immigrant Madurese and the indigenous Dayaks.
In Sumatra, Lampung remains vulnerable due to its high population density and multi-cultural hinterland, according to Loekman.
Both Irian Jaya and Sulawesi were singled out because of tension between indigenous people and more affluent groups of migrants.
As an example, Loekman pointed to the latest incident in Luwu, South Sulawesi, where a richer migrant community from Toraja has borne the brunt of the wrath of the area's less affluent indigenous inhabitants. Fighting among rival factions there left six dead in the run-up to Idul Fitri.
In Irian Jaya, he said, poorer indigenous tribespeople resented migrants creaming off wealth from their natural resources and sending it out of the province.
Loekman said that while "affirmative action" was needed to improve the welfare of the indigenous inhabitants of Indonesia's eastern provinces, he pointed out that migrants should be encouraged to distribute some of their wealth among indigenous people by providing them with employment.
Among the most turbulent spots in the archipelago will be Jakarta, he said, warning that the calm of Ramadhan would be broken by a resumption of student protests after the Idul Fitri holiday.
As in other major urban centers, anger over high prices and unemployment prompted widespread looting and rioting in the capital last year. This, he said, would continue if the economy continued to worsen.
Many city residents expect further rises in crime and fear that the situation will get even worse once the government deploys a civilian militia around the country to boost the security forces.
Other undisputed hot spots are in the provinces of Aceh and East Timor. (aan)