Vietnam's communists move to conservatism
By Frederik Balfour
HANOI (AFP): The Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) could see a significant reshuffle in top personnel this week that would mark a shift towards greater conservatism, diplomats say.
The week-long plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the CPV which opened Monday will decide on changes in the pecking order of the all-powerful party politburo, with some members facing disciplinary action and possible dismissal.
"It looks like it's going to be a game of musical chairs and people with shiny buttons want to play a vital role," said one European diplomat.
One expected move is the appointment of current Minister of Public Security Le Minh Huong to replace Nguyen Manh Cam as foreign minister.
Cam, an urbane diplomat who presided over the ASEAN summit hosted by Hanoi in December, would remain deputy premier with responsibility for foreign affairs. Both will retain their positions on the 19-man politburo.
Although Huong also has some experience in the foreign service -- he was a junior diplomat in Tokyo in the 1970s -- he is perceived as a conservative who is likely to stress stability over change, analysts say.
Another sign that conservatives are in the ascendant was the decision earlier this month to expel Gen. Tran Do from the party.
Do is a highly respected revolutionary and party member who was stripped of his membership for his outspoken criticisms of Communist leaders.
His expulsion on Jan. 4 was widely interpreted as a signal of Hanoi's determination to crack down on dissent and intended to send a strong warning to others.
Do is one of Vietnam's leading intellectuals and has broad support among army veterans, many of whom agree with his views that the party is riddled with corruption and has lost touch with the people.
But the party ignored his calls for "an open dialogue" and closed ranks instead, observers say.
Vietnam has come under increasing pressure from international donors to restart stalled economic reforms and push ahead with doi moi, or renovation, so that economic growth can be sustained.
But diplomats say there is no indication that political reforms are in the offing. Indeed, hardliners are using unrest sparked by economic adjustment as an excuse to preserve the status quo.
The party had a wake-up call in 1997 when local corruption sparked widespread protests in the northern province of Thai Binh, resulting in the sacking of several local officials.
However observers say that the underlying problems of Thai Binh exist throughout the country, and that corruption is rampant and reaches the highest levels of party and government.
There are now strong rumors that others could be kicked off the politburo.
"They are trying to get at the black sheep," said the European diplomat.
Other diplomats say that Prime Minister Phan Van Khai, broadly seen as a reformer, called for an investigation into illegal land sales which implicated deputy prime minister Ngo Xuan Loc and Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Xuan Gia.
However conservative elements in the party opposed the idea for fear of tarnishing the image of those in its inner sanctum.
Another expected move is that Truong Tan Sang, current party chief of Ho Chi Minh City, will be relocated to Hanoi to head up the party economic commission.
That move would allow the party to keep Sang, an independent- minded reformer, on a tighter leash, diplomats say.
Defense Minister Phan Van Tra could also be replaced as head of the military while remaining on the politburo.
The military wields considerable economic as well as political clout in Vietnam, participating in at least 56 joint ventures and wholly operating 200 other businesses.
Last year it generated revenues of US$609 million, thanks in part to lucrative concessions in timber, offshore oil-related services and helicopter transportation.