Verdicts in Germany case up the ante for undecided Khatami
By Jean-Michel Cadiot
TEHRAN (AFP): Embattled Iranian President Mohammad Khatami's decision whether to run for re-election has been complicated by the stiff jail terms handed down to reformist allies over an "un- Islamic" meeting in Germany, analysts say.
Khatami's strongest supporters, such as parliamentary speaker Mehdi Karubi, have been pressing him to make public his intentions for the June elections.
But his conservative rivals, who have blocked his program of liberalizing reforms at almost every turn, would like to see Khatami weakened as far as possible before presenting himself to voters.
"Conservatives want him to be a candidate. They don't have any alternative," says political analyst Dariush Abdali.
"But at the same time they want to weaken him. Khatami's problem is how to avoid getting caught short by their maneuvering," he says.
Despite the calls to announce his candidacy, and the obvious popular support he still enjoys, Khatami has been hesitant to make a formal public decision, although he hinted last summer that he would run.
"Conservatives have multiplied the traps they've set for him," says analyst Iraj Rashti, pointing to the wholesale closure of newspapers and the forced resignation of popular culture minister Ataollah Mohajerani.
Rashti says a recent social crackdown which saw the arrest of more than 300 people at "decadent" New Year's parties as well as the latest verdicts are "more or less aimed right at Khatami."
Maverick journalist Akbar Ganji and a translator at Germany's Tehran embassy were each slapped with 10-year jail sentences in connection with the conference, held in Berlin last year.
Several other reformists were given sentences of between four and nine years while a dissident cleric who used the seminar to challenge Iran's Islamic dress code for women was charged with waging war against God.
He is being tried separately by a special clerical court and could be facing the death sentence.
The conference was sponsored by a German foundation with links to the German Greens party.
"These were journalists, intellectuals, lawyers, women, students -- all those who make up the 'civil society' that is a cornerstone of Khatami's program -- who were sentenced," says analyst Khosro Abedi.
A Western diplomat who asked not to be named said the affair "could hurt the image of Iran, which has been far more open in recent years under Khatami."
He also said the verdict "could weigh on Khatami's decision" to run for a second four-year term, the maximum allowed under the Iranian constitution.
Nevertheless, Khatami still appeared to be appealing to voters on Monday, telling an audience of thousands in the southern city of Shiraz that it was "up to you to opt for democracy."
"Our salvation depends on the establishment and strengthening of a democratic regime based on religious values and in which man will be master of his own destiny," Khatami said.