U.S.-Vietnamese ties good for ASEAN

JAKARTA (JP): The United States' decision to normalize diplomatic relations with Vietnam bodes well for Indonesia and other countries in Southeast Asia, officials and international relations experts said yesterday.

The experts, Juwono Sudarsono and Dewi Fortuna Anwar, see the restoration of ties, announced in Washington on Tuesday, as helping to redress the imbalance of power that exists between Southeast Asian nations on the one hand, and China on the other.

They said that the normalization would bolster the strength of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the strategic equation against China, which is increasingly perceived as a threat to the region.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Alatas also welcomed the news, although he expressed it more in diplomatic terms.

"This is a very welcome development," Alatas told a group of foreign correspondents based in Jakarta yesterday.

"Indonesia has always stated its view in the past that normalization of relations between the United States and Vietnam would contribute positively to developments in this part of the world," Alatas was reported by Reuters as saying.

Vietnam is scheduled to formally join Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand as the seventh member of ASEAN later this month.

Dewi told The Jakarta Post that the resumption of relations between Washington and Hanoi would inevitably have a strategic effect on the region and, in particular, on relations with China.

"It certainly would account for a new important strategic balance," said the National Institute of Science's international relations expert.

Juwono, vice governor of the National Resilience Institute, concurred on the implications of Washington's moves as fortifying ASEAN's position with China.

The move would help to "not contain, but off-set" China's growing military threat, Juwono said.

Juwono however stressed that China has a rightful role to play in the region, describing its status as a "non-status quo" power.

Apart from Vietnam, three ASEAN states are entangled in a potentially explosive territorial dispute with China over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.

The issue heated up earlier this year when Manila and Beijing flexed their military muscles over one of the disputed islands causing a near stand-off.

Vietnam has a rather antagonistic history with China, with several cross-border armed conflicts in the late 1970s.

The normalization of relations has enabled Vietnam to gain the upper-hand with China by effectively creating a security umbrella.

As Dewi pointed out: "It would not be that easy to push Vietnam around anymore. It will not be that easy to `teach Vietnam a lesson'" referring to the phrase Beijing often used in justifying the border attacks against Vietnam.

Political weight

As a consequence, the ASEAN countries will increase their own political weight by having an equally political powerful ally vis-a vis China, Dewi said.

"ASEAN is of course very happy that Vietnam is a member of ASEAN. In the whole of southeast Asia, Vietnam is the only country that has successfully shown that it is able to bloody China's nose," Dewi said, referring to the Chinese invasion in which the weaker Vietnamese forces were able to inflict severe casualties on China.

"It will certainly strengthen ASEAN in that respect. Not necessarily more confrontational with China, but at least show our deterrence capability," she added.

When asked whether Vietnam's entry into ASEAN had any bearing on Washington's decision to normalize ties, Dewi expressed her belief that it might have helped smoothen the process.

"I think the fact that Vietnam is becoming a member of ASEAN also tilts the balance. It makes it that much easier for the United States to normalize relations with Vietnam," she explained.

Politically it also seems more desirable for Hanoi, as a member of ASEAN, to have ties with a superpower whom all the other ASEAN states maintain amiable relations with.

"It would be extremely difficult if Vietnam does not have relations with the United States. How would Vietnam manage during the dialog relationship if it doesn't have representation in Washington?" Dewi said referring to the various dialog forums ASEAN has established with Washington, including the new ASEAN Regional Forum.

The forum conducts regional security discussion between ASEAN members and its dialog partners which includes both China and the United States.

The coming forum in August is expected to be the first test on the impact of the normalization of ties between Hanoi and Washington. (mds)