U.S., security and intelligence

If anything, the change of administration from Bill Clinton to George W. Bush in the USA will bring about a change in U.S. defense policy and intelligence gathering on a global scale and Indonesia will surely be affected. One needs only to look at the replacement of Madeleine Albright as U.S. Secretary of State by Colin Powell, plus the fact that Indonesia and its surroundings are not the most stable area in Asia, as seen from the Pentagon's point of view.

How, for instance, does the Pentagon assess the spate of bombing incidents which still puzzle Indonesian security officials. The left and the right are as dangerous to U.S. interests now. So, logically, Indonesia may now be the top security concern of U.S. security and foreign policy strategists. My question is, are we prepared to meet this new challenge looming on the horizon? Maybe the defense ministry is ready.

If Indonesia fails to keep its house in order and allows its economy to slide further, there is a greater likelihood that the new U.S. administration will get more jittery and be tempted to intervene, though Mr. Bush Jr. is not so hawkish as his father was. The U.S. surely does not want to see Indonesia and its economic and social problems become a security risk. Consequently, intelligence gathering will be intensified. Can some of our leaders still cry out: "Go to hell with your aid, with UN assistance"? Could President Abdurrahman Wahid's various proposed international political and economic axes, including the South West Asian regional cooperation forum, begin to sound less bizarre against the background of increased U.S. pressure?

The U.S. foreign ministry's officials under Secretary of State Colin Powell will surely want to find out if the series of recent bombing incidents in Indonesia, unresolved until today, is not part of a global network aimed at destroying the American and the capitalist systems. U.S. intelligence surely does not want to rely on intelligence gathering by the Indonesian security agencies which are often lax in this respect.

On the other hand, global economic considerations may temper any hawkish urges on the part of the U.S. There are still China and Russia who do not want to be sidelined as onlookers.

It is therefore of the utmost urgency for Indonesia to settle its internal security problems and come up with an acceptable formula for its troubled regions like Aceh and Papua, if it is not already too late.

GANDHI SUKARDI

Jakarta