U.S., security and intelligence

U.S., security and intelligence

If anything, the change of administration from Bill Clinton to
George W. Bush in the USA will bring about a change in U.S.
defense policy and intelligence gathering on a global scale and
Indonesia will surely be affected. One needs only to look at the
replacement of Madeleine Albright as U.S. Secretary of State by
Colin Powell, plus the fact that Indonesia and its surroundings
are not the most stable area in Asia, as seen from the Pentagon's
point of view.

How, for instance, does the Pentagon assess the spate of
bombing incidents which still puzzle Indonesian security
officials. The left and the right are as dangerous to U.S.
interests now. So, logically, Indonesia may now be the top
security concern of U.S. security and foreign policy strategists.
My question is, are we prepared to meet this new challenge
looming on the horizon? Maybe the defense ministry is ready.

If Indonesia fails to keep its house in order and allows its
economy to slide further, there is a greater likelihood that the
new U.S. administration will get more jittery and be tempted to
intervene, though Mr. Bush Jr. is not so hawkish as his father
was. The U.S. surely does not want to see Indonesia and its
economic and social problems become a security risk.
Consequently, intelligence gathering will be intensified. Can
some of our leaders still cry out: "Go to hell with your aid,
with UN assistance"? Could President Abdurrahman Wahid's various
proposed international political and economic axes, including the
South West Asian regional cooperation forum, begin to sound less
bizarre against the background of increased U.S. pressure?

The U.S. foreign ministry's officials under Secretary of State
Colin Powell will surely want to find out if the series of recent
bombing incidents in Indonesia, unresolved until today, is not
part of a global network aimed at destroying the American and the
capitalist systems. U.S. intelligence surely does not want to
rely on intelligence gathering by the Indonesian security
agencies which are often lax in this respect.

On the other hand, global economic considerations may temper
any hawkish urges on the part of the U.S. There are still China
and Russia who do not want to be sidelined as onlookers.

It is therefore of the utmost urgency for Indonesia to settle
its internal security problems and come up with an acceptable
formula for its troubled regions like Aceh and Papua, if it is
not already too late.

GANDHI SUKARDI

Jakarta