U.S. interests in Turkey

Turkey, a key U.S. military ally straddling Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East, now awaits parliamentary confirmation of its first Islamic-led government since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk overthrew the sultans and proclaimed a secular republic in 1923.

Despite assurances from Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan that he wants continued cooperation with the United States, his rise to power could make Ankara a less-cooperative partner for Washington on issues like Israeli-Arab relations and U.S. relief assistance for Iraqi Kurds.

The new government still must survive a crucial confidence vote this week. If it does, America would serve its own best interests and its democratic principles by extending the hand of friendship.

Erbakan's Welfare Party earned its right to form a government in last December's parliamentary elections. Backed by millions of poor urban voters disillusioned by the corruption of secular parties and attracted by Welfare's subsidized food prices and expanded public services, it won 21 percent of the vote, more than any other party.

But the first post-election government was formed by a coalition of secular center-right parties that between them won nearly 40 percent. When the coalition fell apart over personal rivalries, Welfare got its turn.

During most of Erbakan's 25-year political career his ambitions have been thwarted by Turkey's powerful, secularist military. Military interventions led to the banning of several parties he formed, and a military regime in the early 1980's convicted him on charges of trying to create an Islamic state.

Erbakan's views have moderated over the years. He now pledges to maintain Turkey's secular character and to play by the democratic rules that brought him to power. But army leaders are concerned that he might endanger Ataturk's secular legacy and are sure to monitor his policies closely.

Erbakan's main hope for majority parliamentary support rests on the backing of former Prime Minister Tansu Ciller, who expects to alternate with him as prime minister. But some members of her secular party have refused to back the new alliance, putting the new government's survival in doubt.

Mrs. Ciller's improbable alliance with Welfare could provide her with parliamentary protection from prosecution for alleged corruption during her own term in office. Mrs. Ciller's prominent role, and her party's control over the foreign, defense and interior ministries, also offers the military reassurance that the new government will not deviate too far from secularism.

But while the basic tenets of secularism appear safe, Turkish foreign policy could veer in a more nationalist and Islamic direction. On Cyprus, where the rise of a moderate new Greek government has brought hope of a compromise to end two decades of partition and partial Turkish military occupation, Erbakan is likely to endorse the army's hard-line stance.

On the Middle East, where Turkey recently signed a strategic cooperation arrangement with Israel, Erbakan favors a pro-Arab tilt, perhaps including a softer line on Saddam Hussein.

But drastic shifts in Middle East policy seem unlikely given Turkey's longstanding quarrels with Syria and Iraq and the military's strong links to the West.

Washington would do best by working to maintain as much continuity and cooperation as possible with this NATO ally now experimenting with democratic Islamic rule.

-- The New York Times