Upon entering a New Year

Looking at the security and political situation that prevails as the year 2003 nears its end, we can say that the pattern of conflict that has been affecting the security situation in this country has reached stabilization point. In terms of open conflict, the situation in Aceh has already reached its peak. The problem now concerns whether well-thought-out follow-up plans have been put in place to ensure Aceh's socio-economic development, thereby eventually healing the wounds caused by such a bloody conflict.

In Poso, the situation appears more puzzling, which raises the question of why the conflict over there could not have been prevented. There are strong indications that the conflict is being directed from outside the area. Although it appears that the situation has now calmed down, continued vigilance will be needed throughout the coming year.

A recently discovered low explosive bomb is a case in point. It is not too far-fetched an idea to expect that the same old elements who do not want to see stability prevailing in Indonesia could precipitate new flare-ups in Poso, and elsewhere in in the country at the very same time that a series of elections are being held in the coming months.

It is the situation in Papua that will warrant particular scrutiny over the coming year. The province of West Irian Jaya has now been officially established and will have its own representatives in the House of Representatives after the April 5 general election. The formation of the province of Central Irian Jaya has been stalled following several outbreaks of violence in Timika that drew the attention of observers not only in Indonesia, but also the international community.

It would seem, however, that attempts to establish the province of Central Irian Jaya will resume in the coming year, especially if President Megawati Soekarnoputri is reelected. We have the strong impression that the socio-political unrest in Papua plus West Irian Jaya province has been the result of measures taken by the government of President Megawati. It has acted on incorrect assumptions based on a rigid and doctrinaire interpretation of what the unitary state is all about.

Of course, the suicidal bomb attack in front of Jakarta's Marriott Hotel caused a serious setback to Indonesia's reputation, which was on its way to recovery after the Bali bombings of Oct. 22, 2002. The Marriott was chosen because it was popular among expatriates, and a bomb attack there could be counted on to have international repercussions. The Marriott bomb attack on Aug. 5 once again showed that Indonesians cannot afford to be complaisant regarding the threat of terrorist attacks. With the prospect of possibly three elections looming, all potential centers of terrorist activity should therefore be eliminated.

The most impressive political achievement in 2003, and one that will have a huge impact in 2004, was arguably the completion of all the necessary legislation for the holding of the elections for legislatures at the regency and provincial levels, and for the House of Representatives at the national level. The law that determines which political parties will be allowed to contest the upcoming general election was generally felt to be bureaucratically inclined. Nevertheless, 24 passed the test and have been affirmed as participants in the upcoming elections. It is not too early to state that the current General Elections Commission (KPU) is of superior quality than that of its 1999 predecessor. It is also worth noting that a number of international organizations have given valuable assistance to the commission so that all the necessary infrastructure could be put in place in time.

One important question that needs to be asked at this point is whether the Indonesian public still has confidence that political change and good governance can be achieved by holding the general election. Prominent leaders of the political parties currently represented in the government are inclined to believe that their political life will continue beyond the 2004 general election. Perhaps unaware of existing realities, they live in a sort of bubble and do not realize that significant changes are taking place in terms of political sociology. The fact that some reports reveal that perhaps 60 percent of the roughly 140 million eligible voters are taking a wait and see attitude means that these people will from this moment on be critically watching the 24 parties, and the presidential candidates they support.

Who, basically, are these eligible voters? A recent report published by the World Bank under the title "Indonesia: Beyond Macro-Economic Stability" helps to explain one important facet concerning the 140 million holding the franchise. The title of the report itself contains the message that macroeconomic stability alone will not be enough to ensure the real fulfillment of the basic needs of the poor. In Chapter 5, the report emphasizes in forthright terms the fact that Indonesia is facing a poverty challenge. With the national poverty line currently established at approximately US$1.55 a day, the report reached the startling conclusion that the majority of Indonesians earn less than two dollars a day.

The document points out that a large percentage of households are just above the poverty line, which means that approximately 110 million Indonesians are on the verge of falling into poverty, with most of these concentrated in Java, Bali and Sumatra. The crucial question that should be raised in this connection is whether those Indonesians hovering just above the poverty line are politically apathetic. Or, whether, precisely because of their dire situation, they are politically alert.

We would like to submit that the penetration of electronic media even into the remotest villages throughout this vast archipelago is not only to the advantage of the powerholders as a result of the recognition factor. The widespread penetration of electronic media, which by now also reach the poor even if they continue to lack access to some basic services, makes them more aware than ever before of their political rights.

In other words, they have an increasing keenness to use their electoral rights in order to bring about political change. The fact is that what has been happening over the past several years is that there has been a widening of the gap that exists between those who are becoming increasingly rich, and those who are sliding towards poverty.

That is why we believe that the year 2004 could well bring about political changes that the current political elite, afflicted as they are by a serious bout of cynicism, fails to comprehend.

Since Indonesia, amid staggeringly high unemployment, will for the first time hold a direct presidential election, which by definition will be an emotional exercise, we sincerely hope that the 2004 elections will proceed peacefully. The year 2004 is indeed a challenging one for this country in its efforts to establish a stable and mature democracy. Every Indonesian, including those working for the media, is therefore called on to perform his or her duty in helping to ensure that the upcoming general and presidential elections proceed in a peaceful atmosphere.