Upon entering a New Year

Upon entering a New Year

Looking at the security and political situation that prevails
as the year 2003 nears its end, we can say that the pattern of
conflict that has been affecting the security situation in this
country has reached stabilization point. In terms of open
conflict, the situation in Aceh has already reached its peak. The
problem now concerns whether well-thought-out follow-up plans
have been put in place to ensure Aceh's socio-economic
development, thereby eventually healing the wounds caused by such
a bloody conflict.

In Poso, the situation appears more puzzling, which raises the
question of why the conflict over there could not have been
prevented. There are strong indications that the conflict is
being directed from outside the area. Although it appears that
the situation has now calmed down, continued vigilance will be
needed throughout the coming year.

A recently discovered low explosive bomb is a case in point.
It is not too far-fetched an idea to expect that the same old
elements who do not want to see stability prevailing in Indonesia
could precipitate new flare-ups in Poso, and elsewhere in in the
country at the very same time that a series of elections are
being held in the coming months.

It is the situation in Papua that will warrant particular
scrutiny over the coming year. The province of West Irian Jaya
has now been officially established and will have its own
representatives in the House of Representatives after the April 5
general election. The formation of the province of Central Irian
Jaya has been stalled following several outbreaks of violence in
Timika that drew the attention of observers not only in
Indonesia, but also the international community.

It would seem, however, that attempts to establish the
province of Central Irian Jaya will resume in the coming year,
especially if President Megawati Soekarnoputri is reelected. We
have the strong impression that the socio-political unrest in
Papua plus West Irian Jaya province has been the result of
measures taken by the government of President Megawati. It has
acted on incorrect assumptions based on a rigid and doctrinaire
interpretation of what the unitary state is all about.

Of course, the suicidal bomb attack in front of Jakarta's
Marriott Hotel caused a serious setback to Indonesia's
reputation, which was on its way to recovery after the Bali
bombings of Oct. 22, 2002. The Marriott was chosen because it was
popular among expatriates, and a bomb attack there could be
counted on to have international repercussions. The Marriott bomb
attack on Aug. 5 once again showed that Indonesians cannot afford
to be complaisant regarding the threat of terrorist attacks. With
the prospect of possibly three elections looming, all potential
centers of terrorist activity should therefore be eliminated.

The most impressive political achievement in 2003, and one
that will have a huge impact in 2004, was arguably the completion
of all the necessary legislation for the holding of the elections
for legislatures at the regency and provincial levels, and for
the House of Representatives at the national level. The law that
determines which political parties will be allowed to contest the
upcoming general election was generally felt to be
bureaucratically inclined. Nevertheless, 24 passed the test and
have been affirmed as participants in the upcoming elections. It
is not too early to state that the current General Elections
Commission (KPU) is of superior quality than that of its 1999
predecessor. It is also worth noting that a number of
international organizations have given valuable assistance to the
commission so that all the necessary infrastructure could be put
in place in time.

One important question that needs to be asked at this point is
whether the Indonesian public still has confidence that political
change and good governance can be achieved by holding the general
election. Prominent leaders of the political parties currently
represented in the government are inclined to believe that their
political life will continue beyond the 2004 general election.
Perhaps unaware of existing realities, they live in a sort of
bubble and do not realize that significant changes are taking
place in terms of political sociology. The fact that some reports
reveal that perhaps 60 percent of the roughly 140 million
eligible voters are taking a wait and see attitude means that
these people will from this moment on be critically watching the
24 parties, and the presidential candidates they support.

Who, basically, are these eligible voters? A recent report
published by the World Bank under the title "Indonesia: Beyond
Macro-Economic Stability" helps to explain one important facet
concerning the 140 million holding the franchise. The title of
the report itself contains the message that macroeconomic
stability alone will not be enough to ensure the real fulfillment
of the basic needs of the poor. In Chapter 5, the report
emphasizes in forthright terms the fact that Indonesia is facing
a poverty challenge. With the national poverty line currently
established at approximately US$1.55 a day, the report reached
the startling conclusion that the majority of Indonesians earn
less than two dollars a day.

The document points out that a large percentage of households
are just above the poverty line, which means that approximately
110 million Indonesians are on the verge of falling into poverty,
with most of these concentrated in Java, Bali and Sumatra. The
crucial question that should be raised in this connection is
whether those Indonesians hovering just above the poverty line
are politically apathetic. Or, whether, precisely because of
their dire situation, they are politically alert.

We would like to submit that the penetration of electronic
media even into the remotest villages throughout this vast
archipelago is not only to the advantage of the powerholders as a
result of the recognition factor. The widespread penetration of
electronic media, which by now also reach the poor even if they
continue to lack access to some basic services, makes them more
aware than ever before of their political rights.

In other words, they have an increasing keenness to use their
electoral rights in order to bring about political change. The
fact is that what has been happening over the past several years
is that there has been a widening of the gap that exists between
those who are becoming increasingly rich, and those who are
sliding towards poverty.

That is why we believe that the year 2004 could well bring
about political changes that the current political elite,
afflicted as they are by a serious bout of cynicism, fails to
comprehend.

Since Indonesia, amid staggeringly high unemployment, will for
the first time hold a direct presidential election, which by
definition will be an emotional exercise, we sincerely hope that
the 2004 elections will proceed peacefully. The year 2004 is
indeed a challenging one for this country in its efforts to
establish a stable and mature democracy. Every Indonesian,
including those working for the media, is therefore called on to
perform his or her duty in helping to ensure that the upcoming
general and presidential elections proceed in a peaceful
atmosphere.