Unrest to continue, even if 'poll successful'

Unrest to continue, even if 'poll successful'

JAKARTA (JP): Political violence would continue even if the
June 7 general elections were successful, according to political
observers Hermawan Sulistyo and Eep Saefulloh Fatah in a gloomy
political forecast on Tuesday.

Both Hermawan, a researcher at the Indonesian Institute of
Sciences (LIPI), and Eep, a lecturer at the University of
Indonesia, cited Indonesians' inability to accept defeat as one
of the reasons why they believed violence would prevail.

Speaking in a LIPI-organized discussion on "1998 Reflection
and 1999 Prediction: Between Reality and Hope", Hermawan said:
"Even if Megawati Soekarnoputri were to be defeated in a fair
contest, I am sure her supporters would still be mad.

"We have yet to learn the ability of accepting defeat
graciously," Hermawan added, referring to the popular chairwoman
of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle.

Eep concurred, saying good sportsmanship has failed to blossom
over the past 30 years. He also speculated that parties currently
optimistic of winning would also find it hard to accept should
they eventually be defeated.

"This June election, in spite of its many positive changes,
will not create a large corridor for the nation's transition to
democracy," he said.

Political expert Dewi Fortuna Anwar, also of LIPI, said the
poll could not be expected to serve as a panacea for all the
crises plaguing the country.

"It's just a gate to nirvana, not nirvana itself," Dewi, who
is also an advisor to President B.J. Habibie on foreign affairs,
said when concluding the discussion she moderated.

Since the downfall of president Soeharto last May, the country
has seen a series of outbreaks of lethal unrest which Hermawan
believed were signs of "social disintegration".

According to Eep, the widespread political violence -- by both
the state and the people -- has been the price the nation has to
pay for mistakes made by the past regime under Soeharto.

But, both Eep and Hermawan believed a social revolution was
not impending, saying the unrest was just "anarchy".

A failed election would make it possible for the military to
take over power, according to Hermawan.

But he said it would be "stupid" for the military to make such
a move as the country was facing an political and economic crisis
the military would not know how to handle.

Hermawan warned of potential for unrest in many agricultural
areas in April, when the crop planting season begins, as the
state subsidy for fertilizers among other things would have been
effectively lifted, forcing prices to soar.

"... it's a tinderbox, people will easily get mad... with or
without provocateurs," he said.

Given the persisting dominance of the old elements, Eep
predicted that the June polls, while remaining the only hope for
improvement, would create a government still compromising on
corruption, collusion and nepotism.

"It won't be a dignified and credible government... opening
up a possible escalation of political violence," he said. (aan)