Unrest to continue, even if 'poll successful'

JAKARTA (JP): Political violence would continue even if the June 7 general elections were successful, according to political observers Hermawan Sulistyo and Eep Saefulloh Fatah in a gloomy political forecast on Tuesday.

Both Hermawan, a researcher at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), and Eep, a lecturer at the University of Indonesia, cited Indonesians' inability to accept defeat as one of the reasons why they believed violence would prevail.

Speaking in a LIPI-organized discussion on "1998 Reflection and 1999 Prediction: Between Reality and Hope", Hermawan said: "Even if Megawati Soekarnoputri were to be defeated in a fair contest, I am sure her supporters would still be mad.

"We have yet to learn the ability of accepting defeat graciously," Hermawan added, referring to the popular chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle.

Eep concurred, saying good sportsmanship has failed to blossom over the past 30 years. He also speculated that parties currently optimistic of winning would also find it hard to accept should they eventually be defeated.

"This June election, in spite of its many positive changes, will not create a large corridor for the nation's transition to democracy," he said.

Political expert Dewi Fortuna Anwar, also of LIPI, said the poll could not be expected to serve as a panacea for all the crises plaguing the country.

"It's just a gate to nirvana, not nirvana itself," Dewi, who is also an advisor to President B.J. Habibie on foreign affairs, said when concluding the discussion she moderated.

Since the downfall of president Soeharto last May, the country has seen a series of outbreaks of lethal unrest which Hermawan believed were signs of "social disintegration".

According to Eep, the widespread political violence -- by both the state and the people -- has been the price the nation has to pay for mistakes made by the past regime under Soeharto.

But, both Eep and Hermawan believed a social revolution was not impending, saying the unrest was just "anarchy".

A failed election would make it possible for the military to take over power, according to Hermawan.

But he said it would be "stupid" for the military to make such a move as the country was facing an political and economic crisis the military would not know how to handle.

Hermawan warned of potential for unrest in many agricultural areas in April, when the crop planting season begins, as the state subsidy for fertilizers among other things would have been effectively lifted, forcing prices to soar.

"... it's a tinderbox, people will easily get mad... with or without provocateurs," he said.

Given the persisting dominance of the old elements, Eep predicted that the June polls, while remaining the only hope for improvement, would create a government still compromising on corruption, collusion and nepotism.

"It won't be a dignified and credible government... opening up a possible escalation of political violence," he said. (aan)