Unpopular leadership sinks PDI: Analysts

JAKARTA (JP): The Indonesian Democratic Party's performance has nose-dived in this year's general election due to unpopular leadership, observers said yesterday.

Of the 103.4 million votes counted by 3 p.m. Western Time Zone yesterday, the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) had obtained only 3.05 million.

Golkar had raced ahead with 76.3 million votes and United development Party (PPP) with 23.9 million.

Although he did not set a specific target, PDI chief Soerjadi once said he was optimistic PDI would win more seats in the House of Representatives this year.

Political observer Cornelis LAY and a PDI politician loyal to Megawati Soekarnoputri, Tarto Soediro, said PDI would be lucky to attain 5 percent of the total vote.

PDI, an uneasy alliance of nationalists and tiny Christian parties formed in 1973, performed best in the 1992 election when it obtained 15 percent of the vote -- up from 11 percent in 1987, 8 percent in 1982 and 8 percent in 1977.

Soerjadi said the party's plummeting turnout deeply concerned him.

The party's poor performance has been generally attributed to the ousting of popular leader Megawati last year by PDI old-timer Soerjadi in a government-backed congress in Medan, North Sumatra, last year.

A National Institute of Sciences survey presented at a recent seminar found that Megawati's ousting had angered not only the urban middle class but also people in the grassroots level.

The survey found that Megawati's ousting had no positive consequences that would have improved PDI's showing in the general election.

Institute respondents said they considered the politicians fielded as legislative candidates by Soerjadi were not as qualified as the incumbent PDI House members.

Cornelis and Tarto said in a separate interview with The Jakarta Post yesterday that PDI's downfall became predictable with the Medan congress which deepened the party's long-standing leadership conflict.

"Frankly, just how dramatic the drop in votes for PDI was surprises me," said Cornelis, a political observer from Yogyakarta's Gadjah Mada University.

Cornelis said Soerjadi's popularity nose-dived when he, assisted by the Armed Forces, forcibly took over the PDI headquarters on July 27 last year. The attack triggered a riot in Jakarta.

PDI's poor showing was seen imminent when Megawati -- who retains strong grassroots support, announced last week she would not vote. Although she did not call for her loyalists to do the same, many announced they would follow suit.

When campaigning in the provinces recently, Soerjadi was humiliated in several areas when PDI supporters loyal to Megawati renounced and threatened him.

Cornelis said that PDI's poor showing indicated that the government did not help him maintain the party's previous good standing.

Until Cornelis saw provisional poll results, he believed the government would help Soerjadi maintain at least 56 PDI seats in the House of Representatives in reward for his cooperation in dethroning Megawati.

"It is possible the government has learned that unfair treatment can easily spark unrest," he said.

If PDI does get only 5 percent of the vote, or about 22 seats in the House, the legislative body would be predominately Golkar and control of the government would further weaken.

Besides, he said it would heighten political tension between the Moslem-based PPP and Golkar.

PDI's all-time low performance was also lamented, albeit cynically, by Tarto Soediro, a senior House member loyal to Megawati.

Tarto said that in his opinion a party that obtained less than 5 percent of the vote should consider merging with another party.

He suggested that the PDI faction in the House merge with the Armed Forces faction, for example, so that it could perform its law-making activities without posing procedural problems to the House as a whole.

He said if PDI obtained only 22 seats, there would be no way the party could have representatives in all House commissions. This would be a problem because all decision-making should involve all factions, he added.

Tarto suggested that government officials who helped Soerjadi clinch the PDI leadership should share responsibility for all the political consequences resulting from its election shortcomings.

"Soerjadi will have to account for his failure to all PDI supporters," he said. "This (PDI's poor showing) is a national tragedy." (pan)