Unleaded gasoline
In their June 18, 1996 articles, Messrs. Kardono and Gary Gentry argue that the replacement of leaded gasoline with unleaded would be misguided and expensive -- that it will not improve Jakarta's air quality or may replace airborne lead with possibly more dangerous pollutants. Both articles contain much useful information, but their conclusions are not supported by fact.
The effects of lead on health are now well-known. As little as 10 micrograms per deciliter (ug/dl) in children's blood has been shown to cause behavioral problems and impaired intelligence. Lead is also linked to high blood pressure and cardiovascular disease in adults. Residents of low-income neighborhoods are evidently most at risk; 74 percent of those tested in Jakarta had lead levels above 30 ug/dl.
Reducing or eliminating lead in gasoline can change this dramatically, and is not expensive. Japan, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, United States, Austria, the Slovak Republic, Sweden, and Thailand have completed the shift to unleaded gasoline. At least 30 other countries, including Malaysia and the Philippines, have reduced the permissible lead content (0.15 g/l compared to 0.4 g/l for Indonesia) and begun selling unleaded gasoline. In the U.S., as the amount of lead used annually in producing gasoline declined by 50 percent between 1976 and 1980 in the U.S., average lead concentrations in blood fell from 16 to 10 ug/dl. The average after the complete conversion is now less than 3 ug/dl. A U.S. government estimate of the additional cost was US$0.04 per gallon, or Rp 25 per liter.
Prices in Jakarta would increase by two to four percent for low-lead and five to 10 percent for unleaded. Looked at another way, if all of the 1.1 billion liters of gasoline consumed in Indonesia in 1990 had been low-lead, the total additional price paid at the pump would have been between Rp.16.5 billion and Rp. 39.6 billion. Had it all been unleaded, the total would have been between Rp. 27.5 billion and Rp.88.0 billion. Contrast these estimates with one estimate of Jakarta's annual health costs related to airborne lead -- Rp.140 billion -- and one may conclude that not making the change to unleaded gasoline is a greater cost.
The risk of valve damage from unleaded gasoline in older engines is recognized, but its actual incidence has been small, limited to vehicles traveling consistently at very high speeds and loads. Other additives or a small amount of lead can protect them. On the other hand, surveys in the U.S. and Canada show that mufflers, tailpipes and spark plugs last longer and the time between oil changes can be extended when unleaded gasoline is used. An Australian estimate of the maintenance cost savings works out to A$0.024 (Rp.44) per liter -- enough to offset all the additional cost for unleaded gasoline.
Dr. Kardono correctly notes that benzene, other aromatic hydrocarbons and olefins used as lead substitutes pose significant health hazards, particularly when catalytic converters are not used. Fortunately, MTBE (which is becoming the additive of choice) and alcohol can increase the octane rating without the use of aromatics. Hong Kong's unleaded gasoline has the same aromatic content as its leaded fuel.
Conversion to unleaded gasoline was strongly recommended in the 1994 JABOTABEK Environmental Protection and Pollution Control Strategy prepared for the Ministry of Environment and BAPEDAL. The World Bank recommends it to all countries. Indonesia should implement the change without delay, especially in Jakarta, along with reformulated diesel fuel, vehicle emission and fuel efficiency standards, and the excellent recommendations for vehicle maintenance and inspection presented in Mr. Gentry's article.
THOMAS E. WALTON
Senior Environmental Specialist
Environmental and Social Impacts Unit
The World Bank, Resident Staff in Indonesia
Jakarta