Uncertainty feared on Lebanese-Israeli border

By Jack Redden

BEIRUT (Reuters): The ambiguous attitude of Lebanon and Syria towards UN plans for securing peace in south Lebanon raises the prospect of an indefinite period of uncertainty along the border with Israel.

The two governments, which had pressed for a broader peace settlement before Israeli troops abruptly left Lebanon last week, continue to set harder terms than the United Nations for confirming that the Israeli occupation has ended.

While saying they will cooperate with the United Nations, both have demanded Israel hand over to Lebanon disputed land it captured from Syria in the 1967 Middle East war.

The Lebanese government, echoing the views of the Hizbollah guerrillas who led the campaign to expel the Israelis, has also sought the release of all Lebanese prisoners and the return of the bodies of guerrillas buried in Israel.

"I am much more optimistic," a banker, who asked not be identified, said after the occupation ended without the feared bloodshed. "But a complete solution of the situation requires the army to be in south Lebanon and a comprehensive agreement between Syria and Israel."

Neither seems imminent.

The United Nations wants Lebanon to deploy its army in the area abandoned by Israel as soon as UN experts officially confirm it has withdrawn to the international border.

Lebanon could carry out threats to say the withdrawal is incomplete and refuse to send the army because Israel is not returning the Shebaa Farms, which the United Nations concluded is inside Syrian land occupied by Israel.

But even if Lebanon accepts UN confirmation of a withdrawal, which UN experts are rushing to complete, the government shows little desire to augment Lebanese police who have been deployed with soldiers.

Lebanon is reluctant to put troops on the border who could be seen as protecting Israel from cross-border attacks. Syria would prefer that Israel remains nervous.

In a statement from Prime Minister Selim al-Hoss' office on Tuesday, the government not only noted it had to await UN confirmation of a withdrawal before deciding on sending troops, it appeared to raise arguments why it might not happen afterwards.

"From a practical and military viewpoint it is difficult for two armies with separate commands to deploy in one area of operation even if they are friendly armies in order to avoid conflicting authorities and duties," said the statement.

Although Larsen has interpreted the 1978 Security Council resolutions that called for Israeli withdrawal and restoration of Lebanese authority as meaning the presence of Lebanese troops, the government suggested otherwise.

"The press office of the prime minister hopes that all those discussing the issue of sending the army to the south will look at these facts and see that resolutions 425 and 426 did not specifically stipulate deploying the army but rather spoke about the return of Lebanese sovereignty," Hoss' office said.

"The Lebanese government alone decides the effectiveness of its return to the area and the means it would use to do so."

That raises the prospect of the area remaining under control of Lebanese police, guerrillas and an expanded UN peacekeeping force that is to deploy toward the Israeli border. Calls in the Lebanese press this week for deployment of the army underlined fears that this is inadequate.

Lebanon and Syria, which sets foreign policy for its small neighbor, wanted an Israeli withdrawal to be part of a broad peace agreement that would return Syria's Golan Heights. But talks are frozen over Israel's demand to retain enough land to ensure control of the Sea of Galilee.

Syria has had little to say since Israel ended its 22-year occupation -- and its losses in Lebanon that had been seen as leverage for Damascus in peace talks.

The Iranian foreign minister toured south Lebanon a day after Israel left; a delegation from the United Arab Emirates was there on Tuesday. No Syrian official has joined in the celebrations.

"The Syrians are playing a waiting game," said a western diplomat in Damascus. "They are just waiting to see what the UN has to say before taking a decision."

Lebanon is much better off than it was a week ago, with the occupied 10 percent of its territory now restored. The deep pessimism of recent months has lifted.

But in the absence of peace with Israel, Syrian interests may require continued uncertainty along the Israeli-Lebanese border, including keeping Hizbollah guerrillas as a threat in the background.