Two Asian giants should be friends
Dmitry Kosyrev, Political Analyst, RIA Novosti, Moscow
Last September, the foreign ministers of India, China and Russia met at a New York hotel, three minutes' walk from the United Nations' building. Moscow played an active role in setting up the event. During the recent trip by Russia's Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov to New Delhi, it was mentioned that a second such meeting was in preparation -- also in New York and also at a UN General Assembly session. It can be safely said that Moscow is keen to see closer ties between India and China.
In order to understand why, let us begin by stating the obvious. First, the process is already underway, and is accelerating. Second, Russian-Chinese ill feelings dating from the late 1950s and acting as a counterweight to the then-growing Russian-Indian friendship have been left behind in the geopolitics of last century. Today practically all political forces in Russia clearly see that thought can and should be given to a world in which Moscow's friends -- Beijing and Delhi -- are also friends themselves.
What brought together the two great Asian capitals is above all economic reality. Early attempts at rapprochement are known to have taken place back in 1988 by Rajiv Gandhi, but even five years later mutual trade did not exceed US$300 million a year. Over the past couple of years, however, it has surged to five billion. What is interesting is not the figure itself, but the rates at which trade boomed, i.e. at over 30 percent a year.
When such things happen to countries that had recently barely spoken to each other, it means that any territorial and other non-trading issues between them will sooner or later be resolved. And this is now occurring. Evidently the point of departure should be the visit to China by Jaswant Singha, India's former foreign minister, last spring. This is the only sensible course of action.
No issue is keener felt in inter-state relations than that of who drew the current border (or factual control line) between the countries, how and why. All the nation -- not just its political leadership -- should act wisely and calmly to solve such matters.
Territorial problems existed and exist between all neighboring states across the world, but in some cases they are solved quickly and effectively. Who would have thought, for example, that after two world wars France and Germany would become fraternal nations, and not only on paper?
Certainly, China and India are far from removed from the kind of economic integration that exists between Paris and Bonn. But it should be remembered that China is the world's second-largest economy in terms of real purchasing power, India is the fourth, and both are world front-runners in economic growth.
India looks to the Chinese market which imports $300 billion worth of goods a year. China wonders how Indian programmers earn up to $8 billion in offshore programming. In both cases the mutual interest results in further trade and economic deals.
The more actively India's new foreign policy pushes it to tapping external markets, the more opportunities there are for cooperation with China. It is not for nothing that there is talk of an approaching era of Asia, including its southern part.
We have here a trend towards rapprochement between the two giants, based on strong economic realities. Who else, apart from China and India, stand to gain from it?
Russia will be a winner beyond doubt. It is understood here that a full-scale three-way Moscow-Delhi-Beijing alliance is still a long way off, although the three capitals independently of each other see the world the same way. But the process of rapprochement between two of Russia's friends and allies spells new business prospects in Central Asia.
Moreover, with Indian-Chinese mutual understanding growing, Russia may fear less the threat of instability stemming from northern Pakistan and southern Afghanistan. Friendship with the Asian giants also earns European and American respect for Moscow.
Another winner will be Pakistan. This country, ever since it was established, has been nourished and at the same time eroded by third countries' dislike for India. Shedding such a dangerous ideological fundament will facilitate the nation's fruitful rebirth.
The U.S. will win, too. There will no longer be the possibility of dividing and ruling, thereby courting many disasters, with the Afghan example being only the most notorious one. As for Asia's economic growth, it may offer new chances for the American economy, which is now badly in need of clear prospects.
It cannot be ruled out that the final demarcation of the frontier between China and India will only become possible after the benefits of India and China's closer contacts begin to bear early and real fruit that can be felt by the peoples of the worldly biggest nations. Conditions for this are being created right now.