Tung faces obstacles to political survival

By Peter Lim

HONG KONG (AFP): How Hong Kong chief executive Tung Chee-hwa balances the conflicting demands of rich and poor in his policy address Wednesday is likely to determine his chances of a second five-year term amid growing frustration with his unpopular reforms.

In his fourth annual policy address to the newly-elected legislative council, there are wide expectations that the fight against poverty will top the chief executive's agenda.

Education and environmental protection are also likely to remain the main themes this year, while the government will continue to focus on achieving 70 percent home ownership. Half of Hong Kong's 6.7 million population live in public housing.

Whether Tung can balance the demands of haves and have-nots will be crucial for him if he opts to try for a further five years in power.

"There is a lot of frustration among people. If Tung stays in power for another five years what will happen to Hong Kong?" said political commentator Joseph Cheng.

"To build up confidence in his reforms, Tung must demonstrate his willingness to listen in addressing problems such as unemployment and the widening gap between the rich and the poor," said Cheng.

"Tung has to prove he is in command," he said, adding that "people in Hong Kong are pragmatic. They know instability will not bring in prosperity."

Although Tung retains a firm grip at the helm of this former British colony, three years after its handover to Chinese rule his popularity has slumped amid protests over rising unemployment and falling property prices.

Tung's reforms in various sectors, including education, welfare, healthcare and the civil service have stirred up fierce opposition with even usually undemonstrative groups taking to the streets in past months.

Protestors have demanded Tung step down and not seek a second term in 2001 when his five-year stint ends. Pro-democracy politicians have called for a swifter path to full democracy than the 2006 date prescribed in the Basic Law, Hong Kong's mini- constitution.

Tung's plan to provide 85,000 new flats a year was blamed for contributing to the property slump and had to be abandoned in a drastic U-turn.

Nevertheless, Hong Kong's economy has resumed steady growth, with a 8.5 percent expansion forecast in 2000.

Political commentator Chris Yeung said, "This disillusionment cannot be resolved by putting together initiatives for specific problems, but only by building a confidence-inspiring leadership that can bring the people together."

Legislator Emily Lau of pro-democracy party the Frontier said, "After three years of misrule, the Hong Kong people have little expectation" from Tung, adding that "in spite of all the hype on housing, education, welfare for the elderly and cleaning up the environment, none of these policy areas have been a resounding success."

"Some were umitigated disasters," she said on local radio over the weekend.

Lau said Tung has proven to be "a man of mediocrity, lacking in charisma and leadership quality."

Tung, however, said his reforms had been successful, adding that there was bound to be resistance to change.

"The easiest way of managing (Hong Kong) is doing nothing at all, but it is not a responsible way," he said in an interview on government-run TV.

Elsie Tu, a former veteran legislator, said, "We need to unite to find new ways of creating jobs, we should all respond by thinking less about ourselves and more about those in greater need than ourselves.

"This is no time for political fighting. It is a time to unite and think out ways of raising our economy, and abstract political ideologies will certainly not do that," she said.

"Employment should be top on our human rights agenda, for that is the foundation for other improvements," she said.

A report by the Confederation of Trade Unions showed about 370,000 households, or 1.24 million people, were living in poverty with an average monthly income of HK$2,500 (US$321). This was half the government-recorded average wage last year of 5,000 dollars.

The widening gap between rich and poor comes after Tung pushed the high technology sector as Hong Kong's savior in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

But the new economy has yet to live up to expectations.