Tudjman's death leaves politics in air

By Zoran Radosavljevic

ZAGREB (Reuters): The death of Croatia's powerful President Franjo Tudjman leaves a delicate political situation in which power could swing to his nationalist allies or towards backers of the nation's fragile democracy.

Tudjman's death was announced early last Saturday, only weeks before elections for a new House of Representatives whose mandate formally expired on Nov. 27. Croatians now also have to elect a new president within 60 days -- a thought unimaginable only a few months ago.

At the end of November, the government -- with Tudjman's illness paralyzing state functions -- proclaimed the president temporarily unfit and installed Parliamentary Speaker Vlatko Pavletic as acting president.

Pavletic, an academician with little experience in running the country, called parliamentary polls for Jan. 3, acting on cue from the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ).

With parliament dissolved and Tudjman gone, political analysts say real power lies with HDZ, and the steps it now takes will largely determine the country's future.

The conservative nationalist HDZ, struggling to overcome the loss of its paramount leader, has already taken steps to bridge a potentially fatal rift between its hardliners and moderates and gear up for two crucial elections.

HDZ's immediate task is to choose a new party leader who must rein in the warring factions by force or compromise, and a presidential candidate -- not necessarily the same person.

Foreign Minister Mate Granic, a soft-spoken leader of the retreating moderate faction, is the name on most lips to head the presidential race. Recent polls suggest he could beat opposition candidates.

Hardliners, led by Tudjman's adviser Ivic Pasalic and deputy parliamentary speaker Vladimir Seks, have a much weaker popular rating. Pasalic is believed to be heading a powerful lobby of nationalist Croats from the Herzegovina region of Bosnia.

As Pasalic's power emanated from his closeness to Tudjman, his position without that backing is far from certain. He is vastly unpopular and has been linked to business scandals, including the failure of two regional banks last year.

The party has apparently decided to make Pasalic the new party president and Seks parliamentary speaker, if it wins the election. Their candidate for prime minister is Nikica Valentic, a popular wartime leader who held the same position in 1993-1995.

Fears that Pasalic might use his influence to stay in power against the will of the general populace are not widespread, although he has loyal supporters in the secret services and several important media outlets.

"I do not see a realistic danger of someone trying to abuse this situation," said Mato Arlovic, a leader of the largest opposition party, the Social Democrats.

Defense Minister Pavao Miljavac, a moderate, has already said the army would respect the election outcome.

"The polls must be absolutely free and fair," HDZ Vice- President Vesna Skare Ozbolt told Reuters in November.

But a recent survey showed more than half of Croatians think that HDZ, whose popularity has plunged amid growing corruption and poverty, may not accept an opposition victory at the polls. More than 53 percent believe voting will not even be fair.

The independent weekly Feral Tribune listed a number of ways in which it said HDZ could meddle with the voting.

These include a biased electoral law, flawed voter rolls, ballots of expatriate Croats, computer processing of votes and manipulation of the top judicial body, the Constitutional Court, which confirms election results.

One thing appears almost certain, however.

A new parliament, regardless of who holds the majority, is likely to curb presidential powers and introduce a parliamentary system. The president's duties would be limited to coordinating parliament and government.

"I think all the parties sincerely want to have a multi-party democracy," said Arlovic.

Tudjman wielded wide constitutional powers, from appointing the prime minister and cabinet to enacting laws and taking final decisions on virtually everything from state television to the national soccer team.