Tudjman faces formidable challenges ahead

By Tjipta Lesmana

JAKARTA (JP): Franjo Tudjman indeed has the legitimacy of becoming the "Father of the Croatian Nation". It was him who consistently challenged the monopolistic power of Serbia in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY). It was him who finally brought independence to his people six years ago.

Vjkoslav Koprivnjak, the last FRY ambassador to Indonesia, told me that Tudjman, a former general, used to work as a speechwriter for Tito, the founding father of Yugoslavia.

No doubt he has been an admirer of Tito, also himself a Croat. The challenges to the central authority of Yugoslavia were not because Tudjman betrayed Tito's ideal of uniting all southern Slavs. His persistent struggle against Slobodan Milosevic, the Serbian leader, was strongly motivated by his suspicion that Milosevic was gradually positioning himself as Tito's heir and, out of fear, thought that Milosevic would sooner or later recreate the old Serbian dream of Great Serbia.

But the idea to secede at that time was considered beyond reason. "What will be the fate of Serbs living in Croatia? Will they just be thrown out?" asked Koprivnjak, a Croat, ignoring a 1995 plebiscitary ruling in his republic, which proclaimed Croats unanimous wish to leave Yugoslavia.

The Serbs promptly responded to the independent path of Croats (and Slovens) by incessantly firing rockets and dropping bombs. They ignored the fact that Tudjman had conditioned his people to fight "the occupier" vigorously, whatever the cost. Under his command and through world intervention, the Serbs finally bowed out and allowed Croatian freedom.

Croatian achievement in economic reformation has been amazing. "In the beginning we had nothing, but a strong will," Dr. Borislav Skegro, deputy prime minister in charge of the economy, told this writer at his modest office in Zagreb. "Inflation ran at about 25 percent per month, unemployment 30 percent to 40 percent, foreign currency reserves were nil. In addition to the fragile economy, we were also burdened by a great amount of FRY debt."

At the end of 1996 the economy had a growth rate of 8 percent, The Kuna stabilized and was made convertible (6.2 Kuna equals US$1), annual inflation ran only 2 percent, exports exceeded imports, and all foreign debt was repaid.

Today Croatia has totally different political, economic and social systems. Skegro said the success was partly due to foreign capital investment which was pumped into the economy rapidly. Participation of well-meaning Croats living abroad was a vital contribution, as well, particularly in making privatization a success. Most of all, he said, "Croatia, today, has a totally compatible legal framework for doing business."

Economic transformation undoubtedly carries over some enormous side effects. "Turning people from a communist system to a capitalist system is not easy," said Ivan Gradesic, a professor of political science at the University of Zagreb.

It is an expensive transformation, indeed, economically, socially and politically. The introduction of a market economy and private ownership has cut through the social safety net.

All socialistic institutions, including long-term unemployment benefits, education, easy to get sick leave, subsidized living expenses and rents, have been cut drastically in the post- communist era. People were thrown into the market arena very quickly, something they were not used to and were not mentally prepared for.

At this point, according to Prof. Gradesic, people have to learn how to live within the market system. "If you have nothing to offer the market -- skills, money or land -- you are either on state social welfare or thrown out into the street," he said.

Many problems arise from this transition. The most pervasive one is social injustice. There is a lot of talk about social injustice, either in the campaigns of local and municipal elections in April or the recent presidential election.

In essence, people ask that the burdens of transition be distributed more equally, since there were a lot of people who became rich quickly over night.

Why? "Because they were at the right place at the right time in terms of political connections or skills, or in other ways, not through their inheritance or the capital they invested. They just became rich through a different scheme," Gradesic said, mentioning a case of a truck driver who is now a major owner of a road industry.

Along with 180 journalists from 15 countries of Europe, the Americas and Asia, we cruised to the southern coast of Dubrovnik, Corcula, Hvar and Split. People in the streets talked to us and gave similar opinions of the current economic situation. They unanimously agreed that life is getting tougher today. "We cannot save even a penny. All the money we earn is entirely used for food and clothing only," said one person.

More and more people are becoming unemployed. Skegro said the current unemployment rate was 10 percent. The rate might be in fact much more. Elderly and disabled (casualties of war) people could also be added to the total rate.

Apart from economic hardship, there is no "let's go back to communism" backlash. Leaders of SDP, a former communist party, failed to exploit people's discontent for their political gain. All whom I have met said "no" in turning back the clock to communism.

But social injustice and inequality have became the main themes of opposition parties in their campaigns. The ruling party, HDZ, which was founded by Tudjman, was seemingly too strong to be defeated in both elections, thanks to his legacy as the "Father of the Croatian Nation".

Nevertheless, his popularity rating is undoubtedly sliding fast. There has been a lot of talk among people on the business activities run by his family, particularly his eldest daughter. His ability to manipulate television coverage has incited criticism, too. Meanwhile, the Western press, particularly the U.S., has put a spotlight on his moves to eradicate the crime of former traitors known as Ustashe.

During his reelection victory speech, Tudjman promised that a "rich and democratic" Croatia would be his second-term objective in office. The political, economic and social challenges confronting Tudjman are indeed paramount. The trickiest one has been his inability to name a potential heir at his age of 75 years.

The writer is a columnist and a lecturer at the political and social sciences department of the University of Indonesia.