Tudjman faces formidable challenges ahead

Tudjman faces formidable challenges ahead

By Tjipta Lesmana

JAKARTA (JP): Franjo Tudjman indeed has the legitimacy of
becoming the "Father of the Croatian Nation". It was him who
consistently challenged the monopolistic power of Serbia in the
Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY). It was him who finally
brought independence to his people six years ago.

Vjkoslav Koprivnjak, the last FRY ambassador to Indonesia,
told me that Tudjman, a former general, used to work as a
speechwriter for Tito, the founding father of Yugoslavia.

No doubt he has been an admirer of Tito, also himself a Croat.
The challenges to the central authority of Yugoslavia were not
because Tudjman betrayed Tito's ideal of uniting all southern
Slavs. His persistent struggle against Slobodan Milosevic, the
Serbian leader, was strongly motivated by his suspicion that
Milosevic was gradually positioning himself as Tito's heir and,
out of fear, thought that Milosevic would sooner or later
recreate the old Serbian dream of Great Serbia.

But the idea to secede at that time was considered beyond
reason. "What will be the fate of Serbs living in Croatia? Will
they just be thrown out?" asked Koprivnjak, a Croat, ignoring a
1995 plebiscitary ruling in his republic, which proclaimed Croats
unanimous wish to leave Yugoslavia.

The Serbs promptly responded to the independent path of Croats
(and Slovens) by incessantly firing rockets and dropping bombs.
They ignored the fact that Tudjman had conditioned his people to
fight "the occupier" vigorously, whatever the cost. Under his
command and through world intervention, the Serbs finally bowed
out and allowed Croatian freedom.

Croatian achievement in economic reformation has been amazing.
"In the beginning we had nothing, but a strong will," Dr.
Borislav Skegro, deputy prime minister in charge of the economy,
told this writer at his modest office in Zagreb. "Inflation ran
at about 25 percent per month, unemployment 30 percent to 40
percent, foreign currency reserves were nil. In addition to the
fragile economy, we were also burdened by a great amount of FRY
debt."

At the end of 1996 the economy had a growth rate of 8 percent,
The Kuna stabilized and was made convertible (6.2 Kuna equals
US$1), annual inflation ran only 2 percent, exports exceeded
imports, and all foreign debt was repaid.

Today Croatia has totally different political, economic and
social systems. Skegro said the success was partly due to foreign
capital investment which was pumped into the economy rapidly.
Participation of well-meaning Croats living abroad was a vital
contribution, as well, particularly in making privatization a
success. Most of all, he said, "Croatia, today, has a totally
compatible legal framework for doing business."

Economic transformation undoubtedly carries over some enormous
side effects. "Turning people from a communist system to a
capitalist system is not easy," said Ivan Gradesic, a professor
of political science at the University of Zagreb.

It is an expensive transformation, indeed, economically,
socially and politically. The introduction of a market economy
and private ownership has cut through the social safety net.

All socialistic institutions, including long-term unemployment
benefits, education, easy to get sick leave, subsidized living
expenses and rents, have been cut drastically in the post-
communist era. People were thrown into the market arena very
quickly, something they were not used to and were not mentally
prepared for.

At this point, according to Prof. Gradesic, people have to
learn how to live within the market system. "If you have nothing
to offer the market -- skills, money or land -- you are either on
state social welfare or thrown out into the street," he said.

Many problems arise from this transition. The most pervasive
one is social injustice. There is a lot of talk about social
injustice, either in the campaigns of local and municipal
elections in April or the recent presidential election.

In essence, people ask that the burdens of transition be
distributed more equally, since there were a lot of people who
became rich quickly over night.

Why? "Because they were at the right place at the right time
in terms of political connections or skills, or in other ways,
not through their inheritance or the capital they invested. They
just became rich through a different scheme," Gradesic said,
mentioning a case of a truck driver who is now a major owner of a
road industry.

Along with 180 journalists from 15 countries of Europe, the
Americas and Asia, we cruised to the southern coast of Dubrovnik,
Corcula, Hvar and Split. People in the streets talked to us and
gave similar opinions of the current economic situation. They
unanimously agreed that life is getting tougher today. "We cannot
save even a penny. All the money we earn is entirely used for
food and clothing only," said one person.

More and more people are becoming unemployed. Skegro said the
current unemployment rate was 10 percent. The rate might be in
fact much more. Elderly and disabled (casualties of war) people
could also be added to the total rate.

Apart from economic hardship, there is no "let's go back to
communism" backlash. Leaders of SDP, a former communist party,
failed to exploit people's discontent for their political gain.
All whom I have met said "no" in turning back the clock to
communism.

But social injustice and inequality have became the main
themes of opposition parties in their campaigns. The ruling
party, HDZ, which was founded by Tudjman, was seemingly too
strong to be defeated in both elections, thanks to his legacy as
the "Father of the Croatian Nation".

Nevertheless, his popularity rating is undoubtedly sliding
fast. There has been a lot of talk among people on the business
activities run by his family, particularly his eldest daughter.
His ability to manipulate television coverage has incited
criticism, too. Meanwhile, the Western press, particularly the
U.S., has put a spotlight on his moves to eradicate the crime of
former traitors known as Ustashe.

During his reelection victory speech, Tudjman promised that a
"rich and democratic" Croatia would be his second-term objective
in office. The political, economic and social challenges
confronting Tudjman are indeed paramount. The trickiest one has
been his inability to name a potential heir at his age of 75
years.

The writer is a columnist and a lecturer at the political and
social sciences department of the University of Indonesia.