Tsunami produces new political and geopolitical landscape

Michael Vatikiotis, New Straits Times, Kuala Lumpur

Three months after the tsunami, Southeast Asia is feeling the political and geopolitical aftershocks.

The Dec. 26 tsunami swept away more than a quarter of a million lives in South and Southeast Asia and affected millions more in terms of the numbers of aggrieved, homeless, and deeply shocked.

So perhaps it seems callous to begin calculating the political or geo-political fallout. And yet, as with any major event, catastrophic or not, there is a political effect. Here are some worth noting:

o Before the tsunami, the United States viewed much of Muslim Asia as a haven for terrorists and had started to pull back on aid and development programs to those areas deemed as terrorist "friendly". After the tsunami, the U.S. realized that by playing a humanitarian role, its military forces could win back trust and friendship.

o Before the tsunami, Australia and Indonesia eyed each other suspiciously in the wake of the East Timor debacle and two terror attacks that killed Australians. After the tsunami, the two countries were talking about a new security agreement and Indonesia was offering to be a bridge for Australia into Asia.

o Before the tsunami, Indonesia's military was waging a low- key war against Acehnese rebels and had killed almost 3,000 people in less than two years.

After the tsunami, the Indonesian government and the Gerakan Aceh Merdeka resumed peace negotiations.

o Before the tsunami, Singapore was widely viewed by its neighbors as a self-centered little nation that looked down on its neighbors. After the tsunami, Singaporeans were lionized for organizing effective and timely relief operations and were referred to as "sons of the soil" in a Meulaboh marketplace.

o Before the tsunami, Sri Lanka was successfully rebuilding its economy on the back of a tenuous but holding peace deal with Tamil rebels and a thriving tourist industry. After the tsunami, the fragile peace is still in place, but the tourists are gone and the country has to start from scratch.

o Before the tsunami, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was battling perceptions at home that he was an autocratic leader squandering his country's wealth. After the tsunami, he was praised for being a decisive leader quick to rush help to devastated Phuket Island. He won praise at home and a bigger than expected landslide election victory.

Such is the way that disaster shapes politics amid so much death and human suffering. The people of this region have a way of putting natural calamity behind them and getting on with their lives. In fact, it has been observed how fast the affected economies seem to have recovered.

Thailand's tourist arrivals are back up even if Phuket, the worst affected area, has been slow to recover. Indonesia's currency is stable, the markets barely blinked and the only weakness the region worries about is the value of the U.S. dollar.

Having said this, there are certain lessons to be learned. For the U.S., the tsunami drove home something that was forgotten in the anger and aftermath of 9/11 and the rush to war in Iraq, and that is that America has the capacity to wield soft power with great effect.

Before the tsunami, the majority of Indonesians viewed Americans darkly. Now, far fewer do and that's because the Marines hit the beaches of Aceh with water and medicine.

In a broader sense, the tsunami helped prick the unhelpful and divisive terrorist bubble. God knows there are bad people out there and no one wants their cities bombed, their citizens maimed or killed.

But the divisive way in which the war on terror has been waged with those who are with or against the victims of terrorist acts, and the flagrant lack of respect for judicial process and sovereignty has seemingly been toned down as the media switched from chasing smudged bearded faces wearing white caps to spotlighting the compassion of the thousands who flocked to help out from all parts of the world.

For ASEAN, the role played by Singapore, in particular, has forever altered regional perceptions of the island republic. Before the tsunami, people in Malaysia and Indonesia wondered why the Singapore armed forces needed to be so potently armed and equipped.

Now that this equipment has been used so effectively for humanitarian purposes in a neighboring country, the whole region will start to think about joint exercises to deal with humanitarian disasters.

Indeed, you could say that the tsunami has brought the region a little closer. Thailand spearheaded an immediate effort to set up a regional tsunami warning system and opened its airspace and air bases to relief flights destined for the worst hit areas in Indonesia.

Singapore helped co-ordinate regional aid efforts as well, offering to host the United Nations operation and acting as a staging point for supplies.

How long this kind of co-ordination will last depends on what aspects of this co-operation are set in concrete. Many barriers were broken down in the rush to help.

And yet just three months later, Indonesia and Malaysia were sparring over a disputed patch of the Sulawesi Sea and all memories of how Malaysian aid workers were the first on the ground in Aceh were quickly forgotten.

Perhaps it will take more than a tidal wave to erase deeply ingrained suspicions and animosities.

The one thing that is helping, however, is a man-made tidal wave of demands for justice and freedom.

Indonesia, the worst affected country, has a new government that was democratically elected.

This explains why Susilo is moving towards resolving the conflict in Aceh, broadening ties with Indonesia's neighbors and putting relations with the U.S. on a better footing.

The writer is a visiting research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.