Tsunami produces new political and geopolitical landscape
Tsunami produces new political and geopolitical landscape
Michael Vatikiotis, New Straits Times, Kuala Lumpur
Three months after the tsunami, Southeast Asia is feeling the
political and geopolitical aftershocks.
The Dec. 26 tsunami swept away more than a quarter of a
million lives in South and Southeast Asia and affected millions
more in terms of the numbers of aggrieved, homeless, and deeply
shocked.
So perhaps it seems callous to begin calculating the political
or geo-political fallout. And yet, as with any major event,
catastrophic or not, there is a political effect. Here are some
worth noting:
o Before the tsunami, the United States viewed much of Muslim
Asia as a haven for terrorists and had started to pull back on
aid and development programs to those areas deemed as terrorist
"friendly". After the tsunami, the U.S. realized that by playing
a humanitarian role, its military forces could win back trust and
friendship.
o Before the tsunami, Australia and Indonesia eyed each other
suspiciously in the wake of the East Timor debacle and two terror
attacks that killed Australians. After the tsunami, the two
countries were talking about a new security agreement and
Indonesia was offering to be a bridge for Australia into Asia.
o Before the tsunami, Indonesia's military was waging a low-
key war against Acehnese rebels and had killed almost 3,000
people in less than two years.
After the tsunami, the Indonesian government and the Gerakan
Aceh Merdeka resumed peace negotiations.
o Before the tsunami, Singapore was widely viewed by its
neighbors as a self-centered little nation that looked down on
its neighbors. After the tsunami, Singaporeans were lionized for
organizing effective and timely relief operations and were
referred to as "sons of the soil" in a Meulaboh marketplace.
o Before the tsunami, Sri Lanka was successfully rebuilding
its economy on the back of a tenuous but holding peace deal with
Tamil rebels and a thriving tourist industry. After the tsunami,
the fragile peace is still in place, but the tourists are gone
and the country has to start from scratch.
o Before the tsunami, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra
was battling perceptions at home that he was an autocratic leader
squandering his country's wealth. After the tsunami, he was
praised for being a decisive leader quick to rush help to
devastated Phuket Island. He won praise at home and a bigger than
expected landslide election victory.
Such is the way that disaster shapes politics amid so much
death and human suffering. The people of this region have a way
of putting natural calamity behind them and getting on with their
lives. In fact, it has been observed how fast the affected
economies seem to have recovered.
Thailand's tourist arrivals are back up even if Phuket, the
worst affected area, has been slow to recover. Indonesia's
currency is stable, the markets barely blinked and the only
weakness the region worries about is the value of the U.S.
dollar.
Having said this, there are certain lessons to be learned. For
the U.S., the tsunami drove home something that was forgotten in
the anger and aftermath of 9/11 and the rush to war in Iraq, and
that is that America has the capacity to wield soft power with
great effect.
Before the tsunami, the majority of Indonesians viewed
Americans darkly. Now, far fewer do and that's because the
Marines hit the beaches of Aceh with water and medicine.
In a broader sense, the tsunami helped prick the unhelpful and
divisive terrorist bubble. God knows there are bad people out
there and no one wants their cities bombed, their citizens maimed
or killed.
But the divisive way in which the war on terror has been waged
with those who are with or against the victims of terrorist acts,
and the flagrant lack of respect for judicial process and
sovereignty has seemingly been toned down as the media switched
from chasing smudged bearded faces wearing white caps to
spotlighting the compassion of the thousands who flocked to help
out from all parts of the world.
For ASEAN, the role played by Singapore, in particular, has
forever altered regional perceptions of the island republic.
Before the tsunami, people in Malaysia and Indonesia wondered why
the Singapore armed forces needed to be so potently armed and
equipped.
Now that this equipment has been used so effectively for
humanitarian purposes in a neighboring country, the whole region
will start to think about joint exercises to deal with
humanitarian disasters.
Indeed, you could say that the tsunami has brought the region
a little closer. Thailand spearheaded an immediate effort to set
up a regional tsunami warning system and opened its airspace and
air bases to relief flights destined for the worst hit areas in
Indonesia.
Singapore helped co-ordinate regional aid efforts as well,
offering to host the United Nations operation and acting as a
staging point for supplies.
How long this kind of co-ordination will last depends on what
aspects of this co-operation are set in concrete. Many barriers
were broken down in the rush to help.
And yet just three months later, Indonesia and Malaysia were
sparring over a disputed patch of the Sulawesi Sea and all
memories of how Malaysian aid workers were the first on the
ground in Aceh were quickly forgotten.
Perhaps it will take more than a tidal wave to erase deeply
ingrained suspicions and animosities.
The one thing that is helping, however, is a man-made tidal
wave of demands for justice and freedom.
Indonesia, the worst affected country, has a new government
that was democratically elected.
This explains why Susilo is moving towards resolving the
conflict in Aceh, broadening ties with Indonesia's neighbors and
putting relations with the U.S. on a better footing.
The writer is a visiting research fellow at the Institute of
Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.