Triangular contest for Japan's next Prime Minister

Today, July 24th, 413 Liberal Democratic Party members will decide the direction and dynamism of the post-Hashimoto leadership in Japan. Hopes are excessively high that they will opt for change but our Asia correspondent Harvey Stockwin suggests that factional logic may favor the leader who runs last in the opinion polls.

HONG KONG (JP): Three candidates put themselves forward in Tokyo today to be the next Prime Minister of Japan, as nominations closed for the post of president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

While the triangular contest arouses speculation that the influence of the secretive LDP factions will be further diminished, it is still far from certain that this conclusion is warranted. Rather there is a distinct likelihood that traditional factional arithmetic will prevail making Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi the 54th Prime Minister of Japan.

The election comes about because of the resignation of caretaker Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto following the severe setback sustained by the LDP in the elections for half the upper House of Councilors on July 12th.

Since the LDP has a clear majority in the more powerful lower House of Representatives, the post of party president means almost automatic elevation to the Prime Ministership.

The election for LDP president will take place on July 24th while the Diet will meet to formally elect the Prime Minister on Friday July 30th.

The three candidates, as expected, are Obuchi, 61, the former Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiroku Kajiyama, 72, and the Minister for Health and Welfare Junichiro Koizumi, 56.

As Japanese newspapers and television produce several opinion polls on the triangular race they conjure up the illusion of a real election not decided by factional realpolitik in the smoke- filled backrooms of Nagata-cho, the main political district in Tokyo.

In polls of public opinion Koizumi tends to lead, with Kajiyama not too far behind and Obuchi trailing in third place.

In one poll measuring opinion only among LDP members and supporters, Kajiyama led with 41 percent while both Obuchi and Koizumi won 28 percent.

But the illusory nature of these polls stems from the fact that neither the general public nor the ordinary LDP members have any vote in the leadership contest. The polls are only important to the extent that they may, possibly, influence those who do have a vote on Friday.

Similarly the "debates" between the three candidates on television also present an illusion of change. But the fact that they are not real "debates" (rather, polite exchanges) and that the three broadly agree on what needs to be done to revive the economy indirectly reveals that factional logic rather than either knowledge of the issues or the promise of policy change, is likely to determine the outcome.

There are 413 voters in all, consisting of 263 LDP members of the House of Representatives, 103 LDP members of the House of Councilors, and one LDP representative from each of the 47 prefectures in Japan.

The prefectural LDP representatives may not have any strong factional loyalties but the 366 LDP members of the Diet certainly do. The factional "logic" behind the contest adds spice to it.

Obuchi is the nominal leader of the largest LDP faction with around 100 of the 366 members. The faction is the descendant of the large faction originally expanded by former Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka and then taken over by former Prime Minister Noburo Takeshita.

Takeshita is widely considered to be the real factional leader rather than Obuchi. Hashimoto is also a member of this faction. But so is Kajiyama.

For the largest faction to put up two candidates for the one post, theoretically dividing its own strength, is unusual to say the least. Normally the Tanaka-Takeshita faction puts all its weight behind one man. If they do so this time, that man will be Obuchi.

No doubt the fact that the second largest faction, led by former Finance Minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka, has backed Koizumi's nomination rests in part on the hope that the Takeshita faction will be divided. The Mitsuzuka faction is thought to have between 80 and 90 members and descends from the faction fostered by Tanaka's great rival, former Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda, and then by former Foreign Minister Shintaro Abe.

But it will be a big surprise if indeed the Takeshita faction, which knows full well that unity is strength, will fall for this gambit.

Seeing that the international money markets, and a substantial section of public opinion tended to favor Kajiyama in the perhaps naive belief that he was likely to be a more forthright reformist leader than Obuchi, the Takeshita faction considered it prudent to allow Kajiyama to enter the contest.

Equally, since he is next in line after Hashimoto in terms of seniority, it had to allow Obuchi's nomination to go forward, too. Keeping to the code of factional loyalty, Kajiyama has nominally resigned from the Takeshita faction.

Kajiyama, who is a vocal conservative within the LDP, is however known to be receiving strong support from the faction cultivated by former Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone, and now sometimes still known as the faction of former Foreign Minister, the late Michio Watanabe. It is thought to have between 60 and 70 members.

Factional arithmetic and the public opinion polls both suggest that no one candidate will emerge as the clear winner in the first ballot. To become LDP president, the winner must secure a minimum of 207 votes out of the 413.

By itself even the Takeshita faction could only provide slightly less than half that number.

So older members of the Takeshita faction may well support Obuchi in the belief that they can swing their support to Kajiyama if he does unexpectedly well on the first ballot. Kajiyama might win over younger LDP members from the Takeshita and other factions, plus the Nakasone faction. But he and Koizumi will probably divide the younger, reformist-minded LDP vote.

Koizumi may be popular with the public but his only hope of getting into the run-off ballot is if he can get the total support of his own faction, and also the support of the around 80 members of the faction pioneered by former Prime Minister Masayoshi Ohira, but now led by former Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa.

But almost as if they anticipated this possibility, the Takeshita faction has moved smartly to cover its flanks, and the indications are that Miyazawa is pressuring his faction to vote for Obuchi.

While the opinion polls now being taken may influence some of the 413 votes, as many and probably more will cast their ballot in the three-way contest according to the complex strands of personal and political loyalty that thread their way through LDP factionalism.

Kajiyama and Koizumi may appear more dynamic leaders to both foreigners and many Japanese, and their election will almost certainly provoke a favorable reaction on the international money markets. But many, maybe most middle-aged and elderly LDP parliamentarians are notoriously indifferent to the opinion of outsiders, whether they be foreigners or even Japanese voters. So it will be a truly seismic change if Obuchi does not finally emerge as the next LDP President.