Transitional leadership is needed for reform

The government's offer to draft reform measures seems to have fallen on deaf ears as students keep on demonstrating. Marsilam Simanjuntak, a founder of the Forum for Democracy, foresees an escalation of clashes between students and the government.

Question: Do you see any shift in the power balance between the government and the students who have been demonstrating for months to seek political reform?

Marsilam: There are some indications that the power balance is now in favor of the demonstrating students. President Soeharto, who used to refuse any demand for political reform, for example, has now tried to accommodate the students' demands.

The House of Representatives (DPR) has also included the amendment of political laws in their agenda for formulating legislation, while the ruling Golkar grouping has announced its plan to propose a president be limited to a maximum of two terms in office.

The support of the government-sponsored Association of Indonesian Moslem Intellectuals (ICMI) for political reform also indicates that the power balance is now in favor of the students.

There seems to be a tendency to realign, under which some parties are trying to put some distance between them and the power holder, who is now under pressure, or adopting new attitudes to secure their future positions.

Q: Do you think that the Armed Forces (ABRI), whose approach toward student demonstrations is no longer as oppressive as before, is also trying to distance itself from the President?

M: I don't see such an indication yet. If ABRI is getting more persuasive in dealing with demonstrating students it does not necessarily mean that it is distancing itself from Soeharto. As a coercive instrument, ABRI remains authoritarian. It is just streamlining its coercive measures by avoiding the use of excessive methods to make itself more acceptable to the more civilized society and to show the process of democratization in the country.

Such an approach surely has relations with Indonesia's dependence on financial aid from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), whose shareholders certainly want Indonesia to meet international standards in the protection of human rights and democratic values.

And yet, ABRI continues showing its alliance to Soeharto by making ambiguous statements. An ABRI official, for instance, said: "We cannot tolerate total reform. We prefer gradual reform." But he did not explain what he meant by total and gradual. Actually, we can scientifically, objectively and contextually argue that organizing a special session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), even replacing the President and reshuffling the cabinet, are merely gradual reform.

Q: So, do you think that the students will have their demands for political reform fulfilled?

M: No. The reform planned by Soeharto is quite different from the one being pursued by the students.

The students explicitly demand that the MPR reconvene for an extraordinary session and that Soeharto step down from his presidency because he is part of the problem -- of an economic crisis partly caused by corruption, collusion and nepotism -- and, therefore, will never be able to solve the problem.

Meanwhile, Soeharto is offering reform procedures, under which he will be able to maintain his power. It's naive if we expected that he would not mobilize his power to maintain his presidential position and that he would not fight the students.

His efforts to sustain the national car project and the monopolistic practices in clove trading, in spite of agreements with the IMF, are evidence that he is a man who will never give in. We have never seen him concede anything without trying to regain it.

Q: Won't there be any compromise between the two sides?

M: Compromise might be a practical solution but the question mark is still there because both sides are not known to have the propensity to compromise.

Q: Does it mean that there will be a physical clash between the students and the government?

M: Small-scale clashes have occurred between demonstrating students and security officers. Students have not shown all their creativity for making their pressure more effective. I only hope that a civil war will never erupt as both parties do earnestly want the unity and integration of the nation to remain intact.

Q: Is it possible for ABRI to take power and seek the solution?

M: As it is now, ABRI has no such capacity. It has never been independent and it has no political equipment to make itself autonomous from the president.

Q: Do you have any proposals for a solution?

M: I think Soeharto has to step down first, by whatever means acceptable, to give way for the nation to disentangle the power which has thus far been too centralized and embodied in the President and to formulate a new system of government. To guarantee that the planned new system is democratic, citizens must be given operational sovereignty and power to establish the system of their own government and to reserve the ability to change it again if there is any demand for improvement.

Pressure groups must also be given an opportunity to oversee, should there be any deviation in political management. (riz)