Transition to normalcy is start to real victory

Dmitri Kosyrev, Political Columnist, RIA Novosti, Moscow

Victory is easy. Post-war reconstruction is hard. These are the lesson learned by the Americans in Afghanistan and Iraq. The same lesson is, probably, in store for the Russians in Chechnya. Will the Indonesians contribute to that experience in Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam -- remains to be seen.

One may say that it is definitely wrong to compare Iraq, Afghanistan, Chechnya and Aceh. First two cases are about, plainly speaking, a foreign invasion, whatever are the reasons. The latter two cases are about the domestic insurgences that have to be put down. To some people, Iraq and Afghanistan are a bad war, while Chechnya and Aceh are the good wars.

It may be right or wrong -- but tell it to the soldiers. From a purely military point of view, devoid of "just and unjust" thinking, in each of the mentioned cases the situation is similar. The regular troops have defeated the regular enemy, and the enemy that has survived has become irregular -- turned to diversions, hit-and-run operations. A soldier, be it Russian or Indonesian, knows very well that in such a case he is becoming a hostage to the efforts of the civilians who now have to complement military effort with the peacemaking programs. And this is exactly where the question of a just or unjust war will become paramount.

There is no doubt that the recent decision of the Indonesian government to extend the emergency in Aceh for six months is reasonable and inevitable. The problem is, six months or even six years may not be enough for this. The key here is the economy, and the changes in the economy are usually very slow.

The experience in Chechnya shows that a relatively long rule by the criminals means a complete transformation of the lifestyles of the populace. Before the recent military operation the only sources of income of the Chechens, besides raising small crops, were kidnappings for ransom, kidnappings of slaves from the neighboring Russian villages, the financial returns from the crimes committed in other parts of Russia, and, finally, illicit oil wells. Which means that the task of Russia is to re-create the Chechen economy literally from nothing, and only then the real victory will come.

The criminal money inflow has been drastically reduced in todays Chechnya. But the small oil wells still exist, and the people around Kadyrov -- the newly-elected president of Chechnya -- freely admit that it is not easy to deprive the populace from operating these wells literally in their backyards. They have to make some living, after all. But this business has to be stopped, at least because such oil extraction kills the soil for many miles around.

(It is a little-known fact, but the Russian army, now pulling out the regular troops from Chechnya, has sent there the experts from the ecological directorate of the Armed Forces, normally responsible for the mop-up of the air bases with their regular fuel spills. The Russian eco-soldiers are now removing the whole square miles of the Chechnya soil grimed by the war and illicit oil wells, and has already planted there five thousand tree saplings.)

The same problem is evident in the post-war Afghanistan. People have to make living there -- and the illicit drug business, notably the poppy-raising, seems to be the favorite, if not the only, occupation of many peasants. Neither the Americans nor the UN (or the Karzai government) can do anything quick to change this situation. It means that any kind of old or new terrorists may resurface again there, making the drug economy their financial base.

All the terrorists, or shall we say -- freedom fighters, definitely live off the land where they are based. Some levy taxes on the local economy, some, like in Chechnya, make the whole economy criminal through and through. Others, like in Aceh, still have not altered the economic landscape to that extent.

Finally, some people -- like in Iraq -- have never even been terrorists, they were just drawing their salaries as Saddam's soldiers. And the final American victory in Iraq will depend on the American ability to win the hearts of the Iraqis who then are supposed not to support the anti-American resistance in any material way. (And this is very unlikely, especially after the U.S. Congress' decision not to fund the education and medical services in the country, thus saving less than US$2 billion).

It would be idealistic to dream about winning the hearts and minds of the terrorists themselves, be it in Chechnya, or Aceh. Likewise, if you are American, you cannot expect to make friends with the Talibs in Afghanistan or the military in Iraq.

Yes, there is a lot to be said about who was right or who was wrong in all these wars or domestic conflicts mentioned. But in the meantime you can win the minds of the "civilians" -- the ordinary local people, who have a perfect right to live their lives peacefully. Transition to normalcy is always the start of the real victory in a war, not just in a battle.