Tourism target questioned by experts

Tourism target questioned by experts

JAKARTA (JP): A meeting of the Indonesian Hotel and Restaurant
Association questioned the country's ability to attract the
government's target of over 11 million tourists in 2005, spending
US$15 billion.

Two of University of Indonesia's economists, Sri Mulyani
Indrawati and Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, told yesterday's meeting
that Indonesia should work tactfully to realize its target.

The government has assigned an expert team from the University
of Indonesia, Jakarta, the University of Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta,
and the Bandung Institute of Technology. The team's job is to
compile data and make strategies for the development of tourism
for the next 15 to 20 years.

Sri, who represents the team entitled Rippnas, said it has
predicted lower tourist arrival figures for the years 2000 and
2005.

"So far the country has used a projection prepared by the
Economic Intelligence Unit, which estimates that the number of
tourist arrivals is likely to reach 7.8 million in 2000 and 11.1
million in 2005," she said.

She said that Rippnas has projected its own targets according
to three categories: optimistic, moderate and pessimistic.

Its tourist arrival predictions for 2000 are 6.82 million (an
optimistic projection), 6.55 million (moderate) and 5.85 million
(pessimistic). Its figures for 2005 are 10.67 million
(optimistic), 9.72 million (moderate) and 7.84 million
(pessimistic).

"I think the moderate figure is the more appropriate target,"
she said.

She also said that Rippnas thinks that the development of
tourism is "economically viable, socially acceptable and
environmentally sustainable".

The government expects tourism to become the country's biggest
foreign exchange earner by the end of the Seventh Five Year
Development Plan (Repelita VII) in 2004, outperforming the oil
and gas sector.

Dorodjatun said there should be an alliance among Southeast
Asian countries to avoid a price war which would reduce profits.

"Remember the market in the future will be a buyers market,
not a sellers market."

He said the body which regulates and decides policies on
tourism must be stricter than the current ministry.

"I think the name of the coordinating minister for production
and distribution should be changed to the coordinating minister
for production, distribution and tourism," he said. "Or, just
create an independent ministry for tourism."

The two-day discussion which will end today includes
presentations by executives of the Indonesian Tourism Promotion
Board and the Indonesian Hotel and Restaurant Association. They
are talking on ways to support tourism development for the
Seventh Five Year Development Plan period. (icn)