Tourism target questioned by experts

JAKARTA (JP): A meeting of the Indonesian Hotel and Restaurant Association questioned the country's ability to attract the government's target of over 11 million tourists in 2005, spending US$15 billion.

Two of University of Indonesia's economists, Sri Mulyani Indrawati and Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, told yesterday's meeting that Indonesia should work tactfully to realize its target.

The government has assigned an expert team from the University of Indonesia, Jakarta, the University of Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, and the Bandung Institute of Technology. The team's job is to compile data and make strategies for the development of tourism for the next 15 to 20 years.

Sri, who represents the team entitled Rippnas, said it has predicted lower tourist arrival figures for the years 2000 and 2005.

"So far the country has used a projection prepared by the Economic Intelligence Unit, which estimates that the number of tourist arrivals is likely to reach 7.8 million in 2000 and 11.1 million in 2005," she said.

She said that Rippnas has projected its own targets according to three categories: optimistic, moderate and pessimistic.

Its tourist arrival predictions for 2000 are 6.82 million (an optimistic projection), 6.55 million (moderate) and 5.85 million (pessimistic). Its figures for 2005 are 10.67 million (optimistic), 9.72 million (moderate) and 7.84 million (pessimistic).

"I think the moderate figure is the more appropriate target," she said.

She also said that Rippnas thinks that the development of tourism is "economically viable, socially acceptable and environmentally sustainable".

The government expects tourism to become the country's biggest foreign exchange earner by the end of the Seventh Five Year Development Plan (Repelita VII) in 2004, outperforming the oil and gas sector.

Dorodjatun said there should be an alliance among Southeast Asian countries to avoid a price war which would reduce profits.

"Remember the market in the future will be a buyers market, not a sellers market."

He said the body which regulates and decides policies on tourism must be stricter than the current ministry.

"I think the name of the coordinating minister for production and distribution should be changed to the coordinating minister for production, distribution and tourism," he said. "Or, just create an independent ministry for tourism."

The two-day discussion which will end today includes presentations by executives of the Indonesian Tourism Promotion Board and the Indonesian Hotel and Restaurant Association. They are talking on ways to support tourism development for the Seventh Five Year Development Plan period. (icn)