Tough going for Taiwan's Chen during the first year in office

By Jenny Tumpelmann

TAIPEI (DPA): Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian marked his first anniversary in office on Sunday, but there has been little over the past year for the beleaguered leader to celebrate.

Chen swept to power in a landmark election victory last year that ended over half a century of Nationalist Party rule on promises to stamp out corruption and improve relations with mainland China.

But domestic political bickering, continued intransigence by mainland China and a slowdown in the global economy have left many campaign promises unfulfilled and Chen's own image tarnished, analysts say.

"The hard-liners within the (ruling) Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the hostile opposition are the two stones in Chen's path," said Alex Huang, assistant professor at the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University.

The opposition-dominated legislature has largely stymied the implementation of many of Chen's policies and resulted in political deadlock highlighted by a row over a partially built fourth nuclear plant on the island.

The government's unilateral decision last October to scrap the controversial facility incurred the wrath of opposition lawmakers who responded with moves that could have ousted Chen from office. The impasse only ended in February when the government bowed to opposition pressure and revoked its decision to abandon the project.

Moreover, Chen has failed to exert his leadership over dissenting voices within the DPP and his own administration, which has sent out a series of conflicting signals, analysts say.

"He swings back and forth...there's a lack of thorough consideration before a policy is announced," said Huang at Tamkang University.

Indeed, just hours before his government axed the fourth nuclear plant, Chen had met with Nationalist Party chairman Lien Chan and agreed to consider compromise proposals put forward by the opposition.

Not all of the problems that have confronted Chen are of his own making, though.

The local stock market has plunged to just over 5,000 points, around half of its level a year ago after Chen's election victory, unemployment is at a 15-year high and exports are sliding. But much of this has been due more to a slowdown in the global economy than the economic policies of the new government.

Likewise, numerous olive branches extended by Chen to mainland China have been rejected by the leadership in Beijing, which seems intent on frustrating his best efforts at reconciliation between the two sides and wooing his political opponents instead.

Taiwan and China separated in 1949 following a civil war and the mainland still regards the island as a renegade province to be reunited, by force if necessary.

Beijing has demanded Chen acknowledge the "One-China Principle" as a precondition for dialogue, something that the President -- whose DPP has traditionally backed formal independence for Taiwan -- has resisted.

Despite China's stubbornness, Chen, who has backed away from his previous independence stance, has achieved a measure of success on cross-straits issues.

At the start of the year, the government opened up the so- called "Three Mini Links" allowing direct shipping, trade and postal ties between the Taiwan-controlled islands of Kinmen and Matsu and the mainland ports of Xiamen and Fuzhou.

Moreover, it is also mulling plans to ease restrictions on investments on the mainland, which offers a large pool of low- cost labor and a potentially huge market.

Perhaps the government's greatest success has been its anti- graft campaign spearheaded by Justice Minister Chen Ting-nan, which has aggressively tackled the corruption, or "black gold", problem on the island, analysts say.

"The only aspect people are really satisfied with is anti- corruption," said Ling Tung-tai, head of the Graduate Institute of Mass Communications at Taiwan Normal University. "The government knows there are a lot of problems with corruption that need to be cleaned up."

And on the foreign policy front, Chen did at least score points in April when Taiwan was offered its largest arms package in a decade by the Bush administration.

How well Chen will handle his second year could well depend on whether he manages to break the political impasse on the island.

In a speech on Friday to mark his first year in office, Chen said he plans to form a coalition government following legislative elections at the end of the year in a bid to overcome the impasse. Analysts, though, were skeptical about the proposal, saying there is little room for cooperation between the government and opposition parties.

Chen will also set off on a two-week visit to Latin America on Monday that will include stopovers in the U.S.

During a similar visit last year, the Clinton administration strictly curtailed his movements and barred contact with U.S. politicians.

This time, despite China's opposition, Chen will be allowed to stop over in New York and Houston and -- most significantly -- meet with members of U.S. congress, giving the Taiwan leader a much-needed diplomatic success to start his second year in office.