Today's calm may turn to chaos
Today's calm may turn to chaos
By Hermawan Sulistyo
JAKARTA (JP): Renewed student demonstrations have marked the
local political landscape in the last three months. Many might
contend the rallies serve as an indicator of political and social
tensions.
Along with mounting and subsequently declining student
demonstrations, some small-scale riots also erupted here and
there. With student demonstrations used as a social indicator,
the riots also serve a similar function.
If the assumption is true, then what is likely to happen in
the near future?
As the situation was similar to today a year ago, it is
helpful to compare the two to understand possible scenarios which
may be played out.
During the fasting month of Ramadhan, the political climate is
always more subdued. Everyone, including students, restrains
herself or himself from any actions that could be counter-
productive to their cause.
Another factor is at play. Most companies are striving to
provide their employees and workers with the Tunjangan Hari Raya
(THR), an annual allowance to be given before Lebaran, or Idul
Fitri, the religious holiday marking the end of Ramadhan.
The situation, however, is pseudo in nature. Lebaran is a
religious and social event that is economically most draining
throughout the year.
This means that within days after Lebaran, members of the
lower class will have no money left to survive. Worse than last
year, today's lower purchasing power will make their survival
endurance shorter. It is unlikely that they can maintain the
minimum costs of living for more than one or two weeks, unless
they receive some fresh money to help the situation.
The scenario might be that the first stage of riots will occur
some time after Lebaran; a moderate estimate for the timeframe is
between Jan. 27 and Feb. 7.
After this period, social tensions will depend on how the
security apparatus reacts to the riots. If the security forces
use excessive violence, the result will be more violent
resistance. By contrast, a more lenient reaction will be more
effective in controlling the spread.
In nature, such riots will, at first, be local, sporadic,
small-scale and without any pattern of triggering factors. Any
small incidents, such as a fight between children, might spark a
larger brawl and even a riot.
If a riot is a sociological category to refer to a collective
running amok by a crowd, such unrest might be better termed
social anarchy. Collective running amok is a short-term outburst,
marked by the presence of violent actions. Anarchy is marked more
by continuing criminal actions rather than a short-term,
unfocused action by a crowd.
Where is the anarchy likely to occur? From a political
demographic perspective, regions with a nonagricultural base will
be the most vulnerable. These areas will include, but not be
limited to, industrial towns and cities, or places that are based
on services. Thus, around Jakarta, the most likely areas to have
such explosive potential are Bekasi, Tangerang and North Jakarta.
But due to North Jakarta's more intense exposure to political
activities, this area is the least likely among the other areas
to witness the first explosive anarchy in Jakarta.
In Java, cities and towns with trade, services and industry as
the societal base will be the more likely to be affected by
anarchy. Not all cities and towns along the north coast of Java
are based on agriculture; some are trading ports and industry-
based communities. For such a situation, anarchy is an imminent
threat in the post-immediate period of Lebaran.
On the other islands, similar situations can be found. In
Sumatra, for example, there are some vulnerable areas along the
route between Medan in North Sumatra and Aceh, and others in the
hinterland areas. In Kalimantan, towns and cities in East
Kalimantan, which have no food production areas, have the weakest
resilience to resist anarchy.
An interesting feature is that in some places where
agriculture is not the primary support for local life, there is
still no serious threat of anarchy. These places are most likely
the "suppliers" of urban migrants. Padang in West Sumatra and
Wonogiri in Central Java are only two examples.
The main reason for their resilient social systems is that the
migrants bring home economic resources from other areas when they
return during Lebaran. The influx of travelers from the capital
is a good supporting economic source for local residents.
In general, the countryside is more resilient to the potential
anarchy, since food stocks will sustain at least the subsistence
level of life or maintain the minimum standard of living.
Therefore, the agriculture-based society will be among the
least prone to experience anarchy. But, without any significant
changes in agricultural policies, it is difficult to imagine that
the rural society will keep its quiet and calm social performance
during the post-immediate period of Lebaran.
In March or April, after the harvest, farmers will have to
start planting again. With an unsubsidized fertilizer in the
market, it will be extremely difficult for them. Today's planting
season, which falls in December, is not as critical for the
farmers as it will be in April for many, if not most, of them
still have enough stocks of fertilizer. But after the next
harvest season, the boiling tensions in the countryside will be
as high as those in the urban areas.
In such a scenario, when will Jakarta experience the anarchy?
It is unlikely that this city will see it before mid-February.
First, many of Jakarta's middle to lower class residents will
not return to city within a couple days after Lebaran from their
hometowns. When such migrants, either permanent or temporary,
return to Jakarta, they usually use some small savings to survive
before they lose their hope because of the worsening crisis.
Jakarta students face a similar situation, with a longer
period of losing hope and adjustment. Say if, by the end of
January, they have returned to the city, it will be no less than
two weeks that they may consolidate their strength to launch
significant rallies again. Thus, do not expect them to move to
the streets again before mid-February.
The scenario of possible anarchy and even riots might be
exaggerated. But signs of such a trend are clear from the
beginning. Macroeconomic figures might be misleading -- deflation
is not a good sign, for instance, because lost purchasing power
shifts the normal supply-demand balance -- for they are not
expressing the political-economic conditions of the poor. In this
case, statistical mistreatment will cause a great impact on
social coherence.
With apparent social dislocation and anarchy, what should we
do? Most likely, many of us will doubt such a gloomy scenario
until it explodes into real danger for us. Precautionary and
conscientized policies are needed to anticipate such local
doomsdays. Otherwise, we will see history repeating itself; last
year, it was bad, but now it will be worse.
The writer is a researcher with the Research Institute for
Democracy and Peace.
Window: The scenario might be that the first stage of riots will
occur some time after Lebaran; a moderate estimate for the
timeframe is between Jan. 27 and Feb. 7.