Today's calm may turn to chaos

By Hermawan Sulistyo

JAKARTA (JP): Renewed student demonstrations have marked the local political landscape in the last three months. Many might contend the rallies serve as an indicator of political and social tensions.

Along with mounting and subsequently declining student demonstrations, some small-scale riots also erupted here and there. With student demonstrations used as a social indicator, the riots also serve a similar function.

If the assumption is true, then what is likely to happen in the near future?

As the situation was similar to today a year ago, it is helpful to compare the two to understand possible scenarios which may be played out.

During the fasting month of Ramadhan, the political climate is always more subdued. Everyone, including students, restrains herself or himself from any actions that could be counter- productive to their cause.

Another factor is at play. Most companies are striving to provide their employees and workers with the Tunjangan Hari Raya (THR), an annual allowance to be given before Lebaran, or Idul Fitri, the religious holiday marking the end of Ramadhan.

The situation, however, is pseudo in nature. Lebaran is a religious and social event that is economically most draining throughout the year.

This means that within days after Lebaran, members of the lower class will have no money left to survive. Worse than last year, today's lower purchasing power will make their survival endurance shorter. It is unlikely that they can maintain the minimum costs of living for more than one or two weeks, unless they receive some fresh money to help the situation.

The scenario might be that the first stage of riots will occur some time after Lebaran; a moderate estimate for the timeframe is between Jan. 27 and Feb. 7.

After this period, social tensions will depend on how the security apparatus reacts to the riots. If the security forces use excessive violence, the result will be more violent resistance. By contrast, a more lenient reaction will be more effective in controlling the spread.

In nature, such riots will, at first, be local, sporadic, small-scale and without any pattern of triggering factors. Any small incidents, such as a fight between children, might spark a larger brawl and even a riot.

If a riot is a sociological category to refer to a collective running amok by a crowd, such unrest might be better termed social anarchy. Collective running amok is a short-term outburst, marked by the presence of violent actions. Anarchy is marked more by continuing criminal actions rather than a short-term, unfocused action by a crowd.

Where is the anarchy likely to occur? From a political demographic perspective, regions with a nonagricultural base will be the most vulnerable. These areas will include, but not be limited to, industrial towns and cities, or places that are based on services. Thus, around Jakarta, the most likely areas to have such explosive potential are Bekasi, Tangerang and North Jakarta. But due to North Jakarta's more intense exposure to political activities, this area is the least likely among the other areas to witness the first explosive anarchy in Jakarta.

In Java, cities and towns with trade, services and industry as the societal base will be the more likely to be affected by anarchy. Not all cities and towns along the north coast of Java are based on agriculture; some are trading ports and industry- based communities. For such a situation, anarchy is an imminent threat in the post-immediate period of Lebaran.

On the other islands, similar situations can be found. In Sumatra, for example, there are some vulnerable areas along the route between Medan in North Sumatra and Aceh, and others in the hinterland areas. In Kalimantan, towns and cities in East Kalimantan, which have no food production areas, have the weakest resilience to resist anarchy.

An interesting feature is that in some places where agriculture is not the primary support for local life, there is still no serious threat of anarchy. These places are most likely the "suppliers" of urban migrants. Padang in West Sumatra and Wonogiri in Central Java are only two examples.

The main reason for their resilient social systems is that the migrants bring home economic resources from other areas when they return during Lebaran. The influx of travelers from the capital is a good supporting economic source for local residents.

In general, the countryside is more resilient to the potential anarchy, since food stocks will sustain at least the subsistence level of life or maintain the minimum standard of living.

Therefore, the agriculture-based society will be among the least prone to experience anarchy. But, without any significant changes in agricultural policies, it is difficult to imagine that the rural society will keep its quiet and calm social performance during the post-immediate period of Lebaran.

In March or April, after the harvest, farmers will have to start planting again. With an unsubsidized fertilizer in the market, it will be extremely difficult for them. Today's planting season, which falls in December, is not as critical for the farmers as it will be in April for many, if not most, of them still have enough stocks of fertilizer. But after the next harvest season, the boiling tensions in the countryside will be as high as those in the urban areas.

In such a scenario, when will Jakarta experience the anarchy? It is unlikely that this city will see it before mid-February.

First, many of Jakarta's middle to lower class residents will not return to city within a couple days after Lebaran from their hometowns. When such migrants, either permanent or temporary, return to Jakarta, they usually use some small savings to survive before they lose their hope because of the worsening crisis.

Jakarta students face a similar situation, with a longer period of losing hope and adjustment. Say if, by the end of January, they have returned to the city, it will be no less than two weeks that they may consolidate their strength to launch significant rallies again. Thus, do not expect them to move to the streets again before mid-February.

The scenario of possible anarchy and even riots might be exaggerated. But signs of such a trend are clear from the beginning. Macroeconomic figures might be misleading -- deflation is not a good sign, for instance, because lost purchasing power shifts the normal supply-demand balance -- for they are not expressing the political-economic conditions of the poor. In this case, statistical mistreatment will cause a great impact on social coherence.

With apparent social dislocation and anarchy, what should we do? Most likely, many of us will doubt such a gloomy scenario until it explodes into real danger for us. Precautionary and conscientized policies are needed to anticipate such local doomsdays. Otherwise, we will see history repeating itself; last year, it was bad, but now it will be worse.

The writer is a researcher with the Research Institute for Democracy and Peace.

Window: The scenario might be that the first stage of riots will occur some time after Lebaran; a moderate estimate for the timeframe is between Jan. 27 and Feb. 7.