To buy or not to buy cars, the enemy is congestion

To buy or not to buy cars, the enemy is congestion

Primastuti Handayani, Jakarta

Imagine Jakartans buying hundreds of brand new cars every day,
only to find that their newly acquired possessions can never
leave their garage. It's possible, because Jakarta is heading
towards total gridlock resulting from a growing imbalance between
the constantly increasing number of cars and the total length of
its roads -- not to mention a shortage of fuel.

Horrifying as this prospect may seem, it could actually become
reality. In as early as January last year, in remarks he made at
the launching of the city's new busway service, Governor Sutiyoso
appealed to Jakarta's citizenry to leave the comfort of their
private cars behind and to use the public transportation system
instead.

He warned that Jakarta would be in gridlock by 2014 should
people continue to buy cars. The city has a car population of 2.5
million, and about 140 new cars are sold every day.

A study made by the Japanese International Cooperation Agency
(JICA) last year revealed that by 2020 motorists will only be
able to drive in this city at speeds of 10 kilometers per hour
(kph) at the most, down from today's average of 14.75 kph.

This frightening figure, however, does not seem to be
deterring consumers from continuing to buy new cars, thanks to
the easing of import procedures and lower prices, while carmakers
continue to launch new products.

The Gaikindo Auto Expo, which opens at the Jakarta Convention
Center on Friday, essentially reflects the enthusiasm of
Jakartans about new cars.

With an estimated 200,000 people expected to flock to the
venue, the organizers project that sales will reach Rp 1 trillion
(US$102.5 million).

Unlike previous events, where the emphasis was on sales, this
year's expo will also feature car makers' latest alternative
energy inventions.

The Association of Indonesian Automotive Manufacturers
(Gaikindo) is upbeat that the event will help its members reach
this year's sales target of 550,000 cars, higher than last year's
483,000.

With 75 percent of all vehicles owned in Indonesia being
concentrated in Jakarta, private cars and motorcycles are blamed
for causing chronic congestion, as the total length of roads in
the city is only 7,500 kilometers.

The Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association's (AISI)'s
sales estimation of five million motorcycles, higher than last
year's 4.3 million, will also make traffic worse, considering
that the city now has 3.4 million motorcycles.

But motorcycle owners refuse to take the blame and argue that
their transportation costs are much lower, and the time they
spend on the road is much less. And private car owners maintain
that their journey is much more comfortable in their air-
conditioned vehicles.

The automotive industry too refuses to be blamed and argues
that the domestic market is still practically untapped and still
has a large potential for further expansion. An industry player
has stated that Indonesia's automotive production capacity could
reach one million units by 2010.

Others say it is the government's duty to ensure that the
vehicle population is spread out across the country by providing
infrastructure in areas outside of the island of Java. They say
the reconstruction program in tsunami-stricken Nanggroe Aceh
Darussalam has helped to boost the distribution of commercial
vehicles, trucks in particular, to this westernmost Indonesian
province.

In terms of numbers, Indonesia's automotive production is much
lower than that of Thailand. With its 65 million population,
Thailand's automotive production is expected to hit 1.1 million
units this year, partly because several Japanese carmakers have
Thailand as their center of production for Southeast Asia.

The Ministry of Industry earlier said that the country's
promising automotive sales outlook, along with its positive
economic growth and current stable political environment, has
persuaded some Japanese automotive manufacturers to commit
themselves to setting up component plants here and to put up
millions of U.S. dollars in investment funds.

This means more job creation in the automotive manufacturing
sector, which has also contributes Rp 23 trillion in taxes every
year.

However, vehicle owners are now facing another roadblock, with
state oil and gas company Pertamina trying to slice premium
gasoline supplies by 5 percent to meet this year's government-set
quota of 59.6 million kiloliters.

The greater number of vehicles has increased domestic fuel
consumption by 5 percent. This will bring as its consequence an
increase in the funds required for fuel subsidies to Rp 110
trillion, up from the Rp 76.5 trillion already approved by the
House of Representatives.

High global oil prices, which hit the US$60 per barrel mark
recently, are also contributing to the possibility of a fuel
subsidy raise as Pertamina has to cover the $15 a barrel deficit
from the fuel price assumption mentioned in the revised state
budget.

People may argue that it is now time to move to alternative
sources of energy -- whether they be compressed natural gas (CNG)
or hybrid systems. But these are yet to be made feasible, as just
one CNG filling station requires more than Rp 150 million in
investment while Jakarta's chronic traffic jams make hybrids
useless.

Perhaps it is time to listen to Sutiyoso's words: Jump onto
the public transportation bandwagon. But then another question
arises: The public transportation system is still far from being
convenient, it is not safe, and the drivers tend to treat the
street as their own racing circuit.

So, are there any ideas on how to improve public
transportation in the city?

Bylaw No. 12/2003 on Jakarta's transportation system contains
a number of traffic restraining policies, including the three-in-
one traffic policy, the sticker system, an area licensing system,
road pricing, higher parking fees in the central business
district and progressive taxes for vehicle ownership.

So far, only the three-in-one system is being implemented, but
this system in fact doesn't really help relieve congestion all
that much.

The government could have upgraded the existing electric
commuter train network for those living in the outskirts of the
capital as well as increase the number of carriages and service
frequencies.

Ideally, once commuters reach their nearest destination --
their work places or their homes -- they should be able to hop
onto existing busway coaches, whose network the Jakarta
administration therefore needs to expand.

What about regular buses?

If the city administration sticks to its original plan to
convert those buses to serve as feeders for the busway system and
reroutes them so they don't overlap with the busway, then it
could help reduce the number of vehicles along the busway route.

With all these problems, do we still need to buy new cars?

The author is a staff writer for The Jakarta Post.