To buy or not to buy cars, the enemy is congestion

Primastuti Handayani, Jakarta

Imagine Jakartans buying hundreds of brand new cars every day, only to find that their newly acquired possessions can never leave their garage. It's possible, because Jakarta is heading towards total gridlock resulting from a growing imbalance between the constantly increasing number of cars and the total length of its roads -- not to mention a shortage of fuel.

Horrifying as this prospect may seem, it could actually become reality. In as early as January last year, in remarks he made at the launching of the city's new busway service, Governor Sutiyoso appealed to Jakarta's citizenry to leave the comfort of their private cars behind and to use the public transportation system instead.

He warned that Jakarta would be in gridlock by 2014 should people continue to buy cars. The city has a car population of 2.5 million, and about 140 new cars are sold every day.

A study made by the Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) last year revealed that by 2020 motorists will only be able to drive in this city at speeds of 10 kilometers per hour (kph) at the most, down from today's average of 14.75 kph.

This frightening figure, however, does not seem to be deterring consumers from continuing to buy new cars, thanks to the easing of import procedures and lower prices, while carmakers continue to launch new products.

The Gaikindo Auto Expo, which opens at the Jakarta Convention Center on Friday, essentially reflects the enthusiasm of Jakartans about new cars.

With an estimated 200,000 people expected to flock to the venue, the organizers project that sales will reach Rp 1 trillion (US$102.5 million).

Unlike previous events, where the emphasis was on sales, this year's expo will also feature car makers' latest alternative energy inventions.

The Association of Indonesian Automotive Manufacturers (Gaikindo) is upbeat that the event will help its members reach this year's sales target of 550,000 cars, higher than last year's 483,000.

With 75 percent of all vehicles owned in Indonesia being concentrated in Jakarta, private cars and motorcycles are blamed for causing chronic congestion, as the total length of roads in the city is only 7,500 kilometers.

The Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association's (AISI)'s sales estimation of five million motorcycles, higher than last year's 4.3 million, will also make traffic worse, considering that the city now has 3.4 million motorcycles.

But motorcycle owners refuse to take the blame and argue that their transportation costs are much lower, and the time they spend on the road is much less. And private car owners maintain that their journey is much more comfortable in their air- conditioned vehicles.

The automotive industry too refuses to be blamed and argues that the domestic market is still practically untapped and still has a large potential for further expansion. An industry player has stated that Indonesia's automotive production capacity could reach one million units by 2010.

Others say it is the government's duty to ensure that the vehicle population is spread out across the country by providing infrastructure in areas outside of the island of Java. They say the reconstruction program in tsunami-stricken Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam has helped to boost the distribution of commercial vehicles, trucks in particular, to this westernmost Indonesian province.

In terms of numbers, Indonesia's automotive production is much lower than that of Thailand. With its 65 million population, Thailand's automotive production is expected to hit 1.1 million units this year, partly because several Japanese carmakers have Thailand as their center of production for Southeast Asia.

The Ministry of Industry earlier said that the country's promising automotive sales outlook, along with its positive economic growth and current stable political environment, has persuaded some Japanese automotive manufacturers to commit themselves to setting up component plants here and to put up millions of U.S. dollars in investment funds.

This means more job creation in the automotive manufacturing sector, which has also contributes Rp 23 trillion in taxes every year.

However, vehicle owners are now facing another roadblock, with state oil and gas company Pertamina trying to slice premium gasoline supplies by 5 percent to meet this year's government-set quota of 59.6 million kiloliters.

The greater number of vehicles has increased domestic fuel consumption by 5 percent. This will bring as its consequence an increase in the funds required for fuel subsidies to Rp 110 trillion, up from the Rp 76.5 trillion already approved by the House of Representatives.

High global oil prices, which hit the US$60 per barrel mark recently, are also contributing to the possibility of a fuel subsidy raise as Pertamina has to cover the $15 a barrel deficit from the fuel price assumption mentioned in the revised state budget.

People may argue that it is now time to move to alternative sources of energy -- whether they be compressed natural gas (CNG) or hybrid systems. But these are yet to be made feasible, as just one CNG filling station requires more than Rp 150 million in investment while Jakarta's chronic traffic jams make hybrids useless.

Perhaps it is time to listen to Sutiyoso's words: Jump onto the public transportation bandwagon. But then another question arises: The public transportation system is still far from being convenient, it is not safe, and the drivers tend to treat the street as their own racing circuit.

So, are there any ideas on how to improve public transportation in the city?

Bylaw No. 12/2003 on Jakarta's transportation system contains a number of traffic restraining policies, including the three-in- one traffic policy, the sticker system, an area licensing system, road pricing, higher parking fees in the central business district and progressive taxes for vehicle ownership.

So far, only the three-in-one system is being implemented, but this system in fact doesn't really help relieve congestion all that much.

The government could have upgraded the existing electric commuter train network for those living in the outskirts of the capital as well as increase the number of carriages and service frequencies.

Ideally, once commuters reach their nearest destination -- their work places or their homes -- they should be able to hop onto existing busway coaches, whose network the Jakarta administration therefore needs to expand.

What about regular buses?

If the city administration sticks to its original plan to convert those buses to serve as feeders for the busway system and reroutes them so they don't overlap with the busway, then it could help reduce the number of vehicles along the busway route.

With all these problems, do we still need to buy new cars?

The author is a staff writer for The Jakarta Post.