Time for Golkar to be in opposition

By Jusuf Wanandi

JAKARTA (JP): Uncertainties about a new government have emerged in the aftermath of a successful election. This is due to problems relating to the complicated election rules on one hand and the high expectation from people that the elections will finally bring about reforms and change on the other. That means, the establishment of a new reform-oriented government. However, this process is being complicated by the amount of politicking that is taking place.

There are two problems with the rules of the elections that skewed the results against the reformist opposition parties. First is the problem that the result of the voting does not translate into the same proportion of seats in the parliament.

The outer islands, where Golkar remains strong, have proportionally more seats than Java, although the latter has more votes. Unofficial tallies based on 80 percent of the votes and about 85 percent of the seats allocated suggest that a coalition of Golkar, PPP and other Muslim parties might get 185 seats (Golkar 124, PPP 51, and other Muslim parties 10). A coalition of the reformist parties might get 202 seats, Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI Perjuangan) 149, National Awakening Party (PKB) 47 and National Mandate Party (PAN) 31. The ratio of seats is 92:100, although in terms of votes it is 69:100.

Second is the problem that the election result for the 462 members of parliament is only 69 percent of the electoral college, the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), which will elect the president and the vice president. The remaining 238 members consist of 38 representatives of the Armed Forces, 135 elected representatives of provincial councils and 65 representatives of social and professional groups. Golkar is likely to have more regional representatives in the MPR from among the 110 representatives from the outer islands compared to that of the opposition parties which are mainly based on Java and will have 25 representatives.

The numbers point to the possibility of a deadlock in the legislature as well as in the MPR. Thus, the Armed Forces with its 38 members and their additional regional representatives will have a pivotal position that can tip the balance.

There are high expectations on the part of students, intellectuals, the mass media, the majority of the middle class and other reformist groups in the society that Megawati, Gus Dur, and Amien Rais will form a coalition. In view of the absolute number of votes, it is expected that Megawati will come out as the winner. The campaign and the elections were a demonstration of Indonesians' power. People came out in the millions during the PDI Perjuangan campaigns to support Megawati but not for her party per se. Megawati has become the symbol of reform and change. She is seen as the leader of a new Indonesia.

Megawati's overwhelming support came from the people that have organized themselves and was not the result of the successful organization by her party. She wins because of the people's power. Thus, if she will not be elected president although she received almost 40 percent of the votes, it will be a real let down for them. Students, intellectuals, the media and the middle class will also be angry. They will feel cheated after having such high expectations to establish a legitimate government. This will definitely become a source of profound instability for the future. This is particularly true if Habibie uses all his means to get re-elected because in the eyes of the public, he and his government are seen as the embodiment of suppression, corruption and excesses of the Soeharto regime.

A new, legitimate government can only be formed on the basis of a coalition of the reformist parties. The alternative coalition of Golkar, United Development Party (PPP) and other Muslim parties will not be seen as a reformist government. In fact, on their own they may not have the majority that is necessary to form a government. They might try to woe Amien Rais or even Gus Dur to join them on the basis of Muslim solidarity. However, this may not work. They could try to use money politics to split the members of PAN and PKB. Golkar might even try to form a grand coalition between PDI Perjuangan and Golkar, minus Habibie. In view of Megawati's conservative views, this may not be impossible and some in Golkar have openly suggested this option.

The coming few weeks will be a period of horse-trading and positioning to enhance bargaining positions. It can be an engaging period, which the public will not be used to after being under Soeharto's authoritarian rule. They will be frustrated and there will be a widespread sense of uncertainty and insecurity about the future state of the nation. Such sense of deep uncertainty will be there until the completion of the MPR session. The students may try to exert some influence while the Armed Forces will only engage itself during the MPR session.

What then will lead to the establishment of a reformist coalition? A major factor is the pressure by public opinion on the three leaders, Megawati, Gus Dur and Amien Rais to overcome their personal ambitions and to create a genuine partnership that will help them form an effective government. Each must be aware that on its own, none can establish a government. Having the largest number of votes and seats, Megawati has to take the initiative and engage both Gus Dur and Amien Rais in a shared partnership in which all the important decisions will be made collectively. This should begin with the crafting of a common platform and an economic plan for recovery and development, followed by the formation of a cabinet.

Gus Dur has been the champion of democracy, reforms, and the creation of a harmonious blend of Islam and nationalism, and has the support of the minorities. He has to come out unambiguously in support of Megawati and be prepared to defend her against all kinds of accusations, especially from part of the Muslim right wing. It is absurd that because she is a woman she cannot become president when this has been possible in other Islamic-oriented countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Gus Dur has stood for these democratic principles during the last three decades. It has made him such a credible leader in the eyes of the nation. It can be expected that he will continue to hold these principles and will come to the defense of Megawati, especially if she is denied from what she has earned, including by some of his supporters in Nahdlatul Ulama, the nation's biggest Muslim organization.

Amien Rais has already stated that he would join a coalition with Megawati if reformist policies were accepted as the basis for the coalition.

These include the implementation of the law on decentralization, examining the lacunas in the Constitution and to improve upon them, a just solution of the East Timor problem, the political role of the Armed Forces and on the Soeharto problem. They can work out the modalities for dealing with each of these issues and can work out a time frame for implementing them, and this may involve compromises on the part of all three.

The two other leaders should accept Amien Rais as a full partner in establishing and running the government. Some have considered Amien Rais as being too opportunistic in his political views. Therefore, he needs to show that he really is a reformist leader and that he will only join in a reformist coalition.

Despite the apparent difficulties in forming this coalition, in the end it will happen because the survival of the nation is at stake. Public opinion will pressure them to cooperate since only they are being trusted to lead the nation.

As noted Muslim scholar Nurcholish Madjid has stated, the three reformist parties should be given the chance to establish a new government. Golkar and PPP should become the opposition, which is equally important in a democracy. They have been given the chance earlier but have not lived up to expectations.

The writer is chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.