Time for Golkar to be in opposition

Time for Golkar to be in opposition

By Jusuf Wanandi

JAKARTA (JP): Uncertainties about a new government have
emerged in the aftermath of a successful election. This is due to
problems relating to the complicated election rules on one hand
and the high expectation from people that the elections will
finally bring about reforms and change on the other. That means,
the establishment of a new reform-oriented government. However,
this process is being complicated by the amount of politicking
that is taking place.

There are two problems with the rules of the elections that
skewed the results against the reformist opposition parties.
First is the problem that the result of the voting does not
translate into the same proportion of seats in the parliament.

The outer islands, where Golkar remains strong, have
proportionally more seats than Java, although the latter has more
votes. Unofficial tallies based on 80 percent of the votes and
about 85 percent of the seats allocated suggest that a coalition
of Golkar, PPP and other Muslim parties might get 185 seats
(Golkar 124, PPP 51, and other Muslim parties 10). A coalition of
the reformist parties might get 202 seats, Indonesian Democratic
Party (PDI Perjuangan) 149, National Awakening Party (PKB) 47 and
National Mandate Party (PAN) 31. The ratio of seats is 92:100,
although in terms of votes it is 69:100.

Second is the problem that the election result for the 462
members of parliament is only 69 percent of the electoral
college, the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), which will
elect the president and the vice president. The remaining 238
members consist of 38 representatives of the Armed Forces, 135
elected representatives of provincial councils and 65
representatives of social and professional groups. Golkar is
likely to have more regional representatives in the MPR from
among the 110 representatives from the outer islands compared to
that of the opposition parties which are mainly based on Java and
will have 25 representatives.

The numbers point to the possibility of a deadlock in the
legislature as well as in the MPR. Thus, the Armed Forces with
its 38 members and their additional regional representatives will
have a pivotal position that can tip the balance.

There are high expectations on the part of students,
intellectuals, the mass media, the majority of the middle class
and other reformist groups in the society that Megawati, Gus Dur,
and Amien Rais will form a coalition. In view of the absolute
number of votes, it is expected that Megawati will come out as
the winner. The campaign and the elections were a demonstration
of Indonesians' power. People came out in the millions during the
PDI Perjuangan campaigns to support Megawati but not for her
party per se. Megawati has become the symbol of reform and
change. She is seen as the leader of a new Indonesia.

Megawati's overwhelming support came from the people that have
organized themselves and was not the result of the successful
organization by her party. She wins because of the people's
power. Thus, if she will not be elected president although she
received almost 40 percent of the votes, it will be a real let
down for them. Students, intellectuals, the media and the middle
class will also be angry. They will feel cheated after having
such high expectations to establish a legitimate government. This
will definitely become a source of profound instability for the
future. This is particularly true if Habibie uses all his means
to get re-elected because in the eyes of the public, he and his
government are seen as the embodiment of suppression, corruption
and excesses of the Soeharto regime.

A new, legitimate government can only be formed on the basis
of a coalition of the reformist parties. The alternative
coalition of Golkar, United Development Party (PPP) and other
Muslim parties will not be seen as a reformist government. In
fact, on their own they may not have the majority that is
necessary to form a government. They might try to woe Amien Rais
or even Gus Dur to join them on the basis of Muslim solidarity.
However, this may not work. They could try to use money politics
to split the members of PAN and PKB. Golkar might even try to
form a grand coalition between PDI Perjuangan and Golkar, minus
Habibie. In view of Megawati's conservative views, this may not
be impossible and some in Golkar have openly suggested this
option.

The coming few weeks will be a period of horse-trading and
positioning to enhance bargaining positions. It can be an
engaging period, which the public will not be used to after being
under Soeharto's authoritarian rule. They will be frustrated and
there will be a widespread sense of uncertainty and insecurity
about the future state of the nation. Such sense of deep
uncertainty will be there until the completion of the MPR
session. The students may try to exert some influence while the
Armed Forces will only engage itself during the MPR session.

What then will lead to the establishment of a reformist
coalition? A major factor is the pressure by public opinion on
the three leaders, Megawati, Gus Dur and Amien Rais to overcome
their personal ambitions and to create a genuine partnership that
will help them form an effective government. Each must be aware
that on its own, none can establish a government. Having the
largest number of votes and seats, Megawati has to take the
initiative and engage both Gus Dur and Amien Rais in a shared
partnership in which all the important decisions will be made
collectively. This should begin with the crafting of a common
platform and an economic plan for recovery and development,
followed by the formation of a cabinet.

Gus Dur has been the champion of democracy, reforms, and the
creation of a harmonious blend of Islam and nationalism, and has
the support of the minorities. He has to come out unambiguously
in support of Megawati and be prepared to defend her against all
kinds of accusations, especially from part of the Muslim right
wing. It is absurd that because she is a woman she cannot become
president when this has been possible in other Islamic-oriented
countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Gus Dur has stood for these democratic principles during the
last three decades. It has made him such a credible leader in the
eyes of the nation. It can be expected that he will continue to
hold these principles and will come to the defense of Megawati,
especially if she is denied from what she has earned, including
by some of his supporters in Nahdlatul Ulama, the nation's
biggest Muslim organization.

Amien Rais has already stated that he would join a coalition
with Megawati if reformist policies were accepted as the basis
for the coalition.

These include the implementation of the law on
decentralization, examining the lacunas in the Constitution and
to improve upon them, a just solution of the East Timor problem,
the political role of the Armed Forces and on the Soeharto
problem. They can work out the modalities for dealing with each
of these issues and can work out a time frame for implementing
them, and this may involve compromises on the part of all three.

The two other leaders should accept Amien Rais as a full
partner in establishing and running the government. Some have
considered Amien Rais as being too opportunistic in his political
views. Therefore, he needs to show that he really is a reformist
leader and that he will only join in a reformist coalition.

Despite the apparent difficulties in forming this coalition,
in the end it will happen because the survival of the nation is
at stake. Public opinion will pressure them to cooperate since
only they are being trusted to lead the nation.

As noted Muslim scholar Nurcholish Madjid has stated, the
three reformist parties should be given the chance to establish a
new government. Golkar and PPP should become the opposition,
which is equally important in a democracy. They have been given
the chance earlier but have not lived up to expectations.

The writer is chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Centre
for Strategic and International Studies.