Ties with West must for N. Korea

Ties with West must for N. Korea

By Avram Agov and Marina Kaneti

JAKARTA (JP): Within the framework of the ASEAN Regional
Forum, held in Jakarta last month, the foreign ministers of South
Korea, Japan and the United States discussed current problems on
the Korean peninsula. South Korea's Gong Romyung, America's
Warren Christopher and Japan's Yukihiko Ikeda gambled with
donating additional food to North Korea to tempt the latter into
participating in a four-nation peace meeting.

The three countries' foreign ministers also discussed North
Korean incorporation into a broader security regime in North East
Asia, the reduction of economic sanctions against Pyongyang,
increased investment in the North, participation in the UN-
sponsored Tumen River development project and other topics.

North Korea, despite widely spread pictures of well-fed
children in Pyongyang, suffers from an increasingly aggravating
economic crisis and will most probably be lured into a four-
nation peace meeting. Besides, the South Korean-U.S. proposal for
such a meeting sounds more an ultimatum than an invitation. As
officials have pointed out explicitly, the North has no other way
out of the economic crisis and there are no other solutions to
its security concerns.

Problems on the Korean peninsula, however, will not end with
the peace talks because of the various domestic and international
issues involved.

Rather than limiting Pyongyang's ground for action and thus
cutting off its availability of face-saving choices, foreign
governments would themselves gain more by establishing diplomatic
relations with this most isolated country. It should be obvious
that any government is more than willing to enter negotiations if
treated on equal grounds as other parties.

Since 1989, however, North Korea has lost almost all of the
few allies that it had. The collapse of the Eastern Bloc and the
Soviet Union was a heavy blow to the North Korean economy, but
probably even a heavier one was when North Korea's two biggest
allies China and Russia established diplomatic relations with
South Korea in 1990 and 1992 respectively. In the meantime, none
of the members of the European Union, the U.S. or Japan has yet
established diplomatic relations with North Korea.

Ironically, in the world of political agreements, North Korea
has more legitimacy than South Korea, because the latter did not
even sign the 1953 armistice agreement between UN
representatives, the United States, North Korea and China. On
paper, after more than 40 years, North and South Korea, are still
two warring states.

For the world, the Korean War meant a major clash of two
ideologies, a clash of Soviet Union and United States' interests.
For Koreans on both sides of the peninsula, the Korean War was
also three million casualties and entire cities leveled to the
ground. Even today many families are separated with little
knowledge about their relatives' whereabouts.

In the South, bitter memories still haunting the old
generation are mixed with the younger generation's indifference
toward unification. The war experience, as well as Cold War
hostilities in the following decades, cultivated a very strong
conservative trend in the South Korean polity.

Today, concessions to Pyongyang, even amid aggravating food
crises in the North, are made after many deliberations. The South
Korean constitution refers to the Democratic Peoples Republic of
Korea, an antigovernment organization. Under the National
Security Law, coined soon after the end of the war in 1953, any
contact is considered a crime.

North Korea is not far behind with its Cold War-style
propaganda. It refers to the South as the "South Korean puppets"
mainly because of the U.S. troops stationed there. Whereas there
are 38,000 American troops stationed on South Korean soil, North
Korea claims that no foreign troops have been stationed there
since 1958.

Indeed, South Korean political and strategic reliance on the
United States probably served well the policy of containment and
deterrence on the peninsula. In the present moment, however, it
becomes a heavy burden in the process of political reconciliation
between the Pyongyang and Seoul governments.

The U.S. troops stationed in South Korea complicate the game
because North Koreans consider them as an American military
threat to their country. On the other hand, withdrawal of the
troops is possible only after an overall peace settlement on the
peninsula as well as security readjustments in East Asia.

Apart from the Korean peninsula, the U.S. government is
concerned with the overall regional stability and nuclear
nonproliferation. These priorities transform into attempts to
incorporate Pyongyang into a larger international security and
economic system and to secure North Korean internal "soft
landing", that is changes without major disruptions that might
prove problematic for the entire region.

In fact, the South Korean government also watches carefully
American involvement in the region and especially the attempts to
improve relations with the North. Also, whenever there is talk
about an American pullout, conservatives claim that there is a
danger of "Vietnamization plot" or a communist takeover in the
aftermath. Others, however, would blame obstacles for
reunification entirely on the Americans.

Although peace talks have ruled out the Russians (the four-
country peace talks are to include the two Koreas, China and the
U.S.), Moscow is making attempts to reclaim its influence in the
region. A momentary disengagement in East Asia because of
domestic problems and shifted foreign policy concerns, is now
addressed by Russian attempts to restore the until recently
neglected relations with North Korea.

Polite American rejection of an international conference on
Korea to be held in Russia, lack of influence over South Korea,
and a crumbling Soviet Pacific fleet have allowed Moscow to
reconsider its lost influence over North Korea. Thus, for
example, a Committee for Economic and Science Cooperation emerged
and its first conference was held in Pyongyang last April. Before
that, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ignatenko and his North
Korean counterpart, Hong Song Nam, agreed on developing joint
projects in fields like investment, mining, construction,
forestry, etc. Obviously, the Russian government hopes to recover
lost ground in East Asia by improving relations with Pyongyang.

Not surprisingly, Japan also plays its own game using the
North-South controversy. It has been trying to develop ties with
the North partly because of a sizable pro-Pyongyang minority in
the country. At the same time, Japan is also trying to improve
its own leverage on the peninsula. Although it coordinates its
North Korea policies with South Korea and the U.S., the frequent
political and commercial fractions between Tokyo and Seoul have
made the Japanese government search for ways to improve relations
with the North. The emerging rivalry between Japan and China also
places developments on the Korean peninsula in the center of the
battle for future economic supremacy.

China has always played a major role in Korean affairs and
close relations with the North in the past decades have proven
crucial for international negotiations with Pyongyang. China
itself, although looking more and more south of Pyongyang, still
gives a hand to its old ally. Last month, Beijing agreed to
provide North Korea with vital grain and oil supplies. An
historic aim of China's has been to secure a friendly Korean
government with which to share the 1,000-mile common border.
Currently, Beijing sees this possible if it supports the
Pyongyang regime.

A widening economic gap between the two Koreas makes
unification prospects rather murky. South Korea might not be able
to meet the economic cost of unification. The number of South
Koreans who are willing to pay the price is also becoming smaller
and smaller.

The North Korean economy suffered heavily from the collapse of
the Eastern bloc, its condition has been even further aggravated
by natural disasters. In an unprecedented move, Pyongyang
acknowledged the existence of food shortages and made an appeal
to international organizations for food aid. Food aid is now
becoming a powerful diplomatic instrument when pressuring the
North Korean government to make concessions on the international
level.

The only way to narrow the economic gap between the two Koreas
is to revitalize the North Korean economy through exports and
foreign investment. These in turn will require economic
liberalization.

Cheaper labor and resources in the North have spurred the
interest of many South Korean investors. The chairman of the
North's External Economic Promotion Committee has been trying to
convince the international business community to invest in the
North Korean free trade zones. A big business delegation from
South Korea will attend an investment symposium in mid-September
in the Rajin-Sonbong free trade zone in the North

These are positive signs which indicate that improvement of
Pyongyang's relations with the industrialized countries on the
one hand, and South Korea on the other, can advance
simultaneously. South Korean investment will be a critical
element in invigorating the North Korean economy as well as tying
up the two markets and economies.

A sudden collapse of the North Korean regime will only bring
political chaos, regional instability and an unbearable economic
burden for the South. At the same time, historical animosities
and bitter ideological and political hostility have impeded any
reconciliation between the two states.

Thus, improvement of South-North relations requires
improvement of Pyongyang's relations with Western industrialized
countries and Japan because it will lead to the opening up of the
North Korean reclusive system.

Diplomatic recognition will give Pyongyang security assurances
and much needed economic aid. Besides, two sides cannot have a
constructive relationship while pretending that the other side is
illegitimate. The signing of a peace treaty would determine the
pace and direction of the South-North relations, their
reconciliation and reunification.

Window:

Improvement of South-North relations requires improvement of
Pyongyang's relations with western industrialized countries and Japan
because it will lead to the opening up of the North Korean reclusive
system.