Ties with West must for N. Korea

By Avram Agov and Marina Kaneti

JAKARTA (JP): Within the framework of the ASEAN Regional Forum, held in Jakarta last month, the foreign ministers of South Korea, Japan and the United States discussed current problems on the Korean peninsula. South Korea's Gong Romyung, America's Warren Christopher and Japan's Yukihiko Ikeda gambled with donating additional food to North Korea to tempt the latter into participating in a four-nation peace meeting.

The three countries' foreign ministers also discussed North Korean incorporation into a broader security regime in North East Asia, the reduction of economic sanctions against Pyongyang, increased investment in the North, participation in the UN- sponsored Tumen River development project and other topics.

North Korea, despite widely spread pictures of well-fed children in Pyongyang, suffers from an increasingly aggravating economic crisis and will most probably be lured into a four- nation peace meeting. Besides, the South Korean-U.S. proposal for such a meeting sounds more an ultimatum than an invitation. As officials have pointed out explicitly, the North has no other way out of the economic crisis and there are no other solutions to its security concerns.

Problems on the Korean peninsula, however, will not end with the peace talks because of the various domestic and international issues involved.

Rather than limiting Pyongyang's ground for action and thus cutting off its availability of face-saving choices, foreign governments would themselves gain more by establishing diplomatic relations with this most isolated country. It should be obvious that any government is more than willing to enter negotiations if treated on equal grounds as other parties.

Since 1989, however, North Korea has lost almost all of the few allies that it had. The collapse of the Eastern Bloc and the Soviet Union was a heavy blow to the North Korean economy, but probably even a heavier one was when North Korea's two biggest allies China and Russia established diplomatic relations with South Korea in 1990 and 1992 respectively. In the meantime, none of the members of the European Union, the U.S. or Japan has yet established diplomatic relations with North Korea.

Ironically, in the world of political agreements, North Korea has more legitimacy than South Korea, because the latter did not even sign the 1953 armistice agreement between UN representatives, the United States, North Korea and China. On paper, after more than 40 years, North and South Korea, are still two warring states.

For the world, the Korean War meant a major clash of two ideologies, a clash of Soviet Union and United States' interests. For Koreans on both sides of the peninsula, the Korean War was also three million casualties and entire cities leveled to the ground. Even today many families are separated with little knowledge about their relatives' whereabouts.

In the South, bitter memories still haunting the old generation are mixed with the younger generation's indifference toward unification. The war experience, as well as Cold War hostilities in the following decades, cultivated a very strong conservative trend in the South Korean polity.

Today, concessions to Pyongyang, even amid aggravating food crises in the North, are made after many deliberations. The South Korean constitution refers to the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea, an antigovernment organization. Under the National Security Law, coined soon after the end of the war in 1953, any contact is considered a crime.

North Korea is not far behind with its Cold War-style propaganda. It refers to the South as the "South Korean puppets" mainly because of the U.S. troops stationed there. Whereas there are 38,000 American troops stationed on South Korean soil, North Korea claims that no foreign troops have been stationed there since 1958.

Indeed, South Korean political and strategic reliance on the United States probably served well the policy of containment and deterrence on the peninsula. In the present moment, however, it becomes a heavy burden in the process of political reconciliation between the Pyongyang and Seoul governments.

The U.S. troops stationed in South Korea complicate the game because North Koreans consider them as an American military threat to their country. On the other hand, withdrawal of the troops is possible only after an overall peace settlement on the peninsula as well as security readjustments in East Asia.

Apart from the Korean peninsula, the U.S. government is concerned with the overall regional stability and nuclear nonproliferation. These priorities transform into attempts to incorporate Pyongyang into a larger international security and economic system and to secure North Korean internal "soft landing", that is changes without major disruptions that might prove problematic for the entire region.

In fact, the South Korean government also watches carefully American involvement in the region and especially the attempts to improve relations with the North. Also, whenever there is talk about an American pullout, conservatives claim that there is a danger of "Vietnamization plot" or a communist takeover in the aftermath. Others, however, would blame obstacles for reunification entirely on the Americans.

Although peace talks have ruled out the Russians (the four- country peace talks are to include the two Koreas, China and the U.S.), Moscow is making attempts to reclaim its influence in the region. A momentary disengagement in East Asia because of domestic problems and shifted foreign policy concerns, is now addressed by Russian attempts to restore the until recently neglected relations with North Korea.

Polite American rejection of an international conference on Korea to be held in Russia, lack of influence over South Korea, and a crumbling Soviet Pacific fleet have allowed Moscow to reconsider its lost influence over North Korea. Thus, for example, a Committee for Economic and Science Cooperation emerged and its first conference was held in Pyongyang last April. Before that, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ignatenko and his North Korean counterpart, Hong Song Nam, agreed on developing joint projects in fields like investment, mining, construction, forestry, etc. Obviously, the Russian government hopes to recover lost ground in East Asia by improving relations with Pyongyang.

Not surprisingly, Japan also plays its own game using the North-South controversy. It has been trying to develop ties with the North partly because of a sizable pro-Pyongyang minority in the country. At the same time, Japan is also trying to improve its own leverage on the peninsula. Although it coordinates its North Korea policies with South Korea and the U.S., the frequent political and commercial fractions between Tokyo and Seoul have made the Japanese government search for ways to improve relations with the North. The emerging rivalry between Japan and China also places developments on the Korean peninsula in the center of the battle for future economic supremacy.

China has always played a major role in Korean affairs and close relations with the North in the past decades have proven crucial for international negotiations with Pyongyang. China itself, although looking more and more south of Pyongyang, still gives a hand to its old ally. Last month, Beijing agreed to provide North Korea with vital grain and oil supplies. An historic aim of China's has been to secure a friendly Korean government with which to share the 1,000-mile common border. Currently, Beijing sees this possible if it supports the Pyongyang regime.

A widening economic gap between the two Koreas makes unification prospects rather murky. South Korea might not be able to meet the economic cost of unification. The number of South Koreans who are willing to pay the price is also becoming smaller and smaller.

The North Korean economy suffered heavily from the collapse of the Eastern bloc, its condition has been even further aggravated by natural disasters. In an unprecedented move, Pyongyang acknowledged the existence of food shortages and made an appeal to international organizations for food aid. Food aid is now becoming a powerful diplomatic instrument when pressuring the North Korean government to make concessions on the international level.

The only way to narrow the economic gap between the two Koreas is to revitalize the North Korean economy through exports and foreign investment. These in turn will require economic liberalization.

Cheaper labor and resources in the North have spurred the interest of many South Korean investors. The chairman of the North's External Economic Promotion Committee has been trying to convince the international business community to invest in the North Korean free trade zones. A big business delegation from South Korea will attend an investment symposium in mid-September in the Rajin-Sonbong free trade zone in the North

These are positive signs which indicate that improvement of Pyongyang's relations with the industrialized countries on the one hand, and South Korea on the other, can advance simultaneously. South Korean investment will be a critical element in invigorating the North Korean economy as well as tying up the two markets and economies.

A sudden collapse of the North Korean regime will only bring political chaos, regional instability and an unbearable economic burden for the South. At the same time, historical animosities and bitter ideological and political hostility have impeded any reconciliation between the two states.

Thus, improvement of South-North relations requires improvement of Pyongyang's relations with Western industrialized countries and Japan because it will lead to the opening up of the North Korean reclusive system.

Diplomatic recognition will give Pyongyang security assurances and much needed economic aid. Besides, two sides cannot have a constructive relationship while pretending that the other side is illegitimate. The signing of a peace treaty would determine the pace and direction of the South-North relations, their reconciliation and reunification.

Window:

Improvement of South-North relations requires improvement of Pyongyang's relations with western industrialized countries and Japan because it will lead to the opening up of the North Korean reclusive system.