The world of 2001

The world of 2001

One of the preeminent qualities of Sutan Sjahrir as prime
minister and foreign minister of the infant Republic at the end
of 1945 was his ability to make a sharp analysis of the post-
World War II world situation and to draw the correct conclusions
to position the Republic's diplomatic efforts in facing the
return of Dutch colonialism.

At present, as we approach the end of this eventful year of
2001, which according to the Chinese zodiac was the Year of the
Snake, it is perhaps even more important for us to have a clear
picture of this passing year to enable us to discover windows of
opportunities in the coming year that could enhance Indonesia's
national interests.

Undoubtedly, the horrific events of Sept. 11 have dominated
the world scene to the point of making it seem that nothing of
importance happened before that fateful day. In reality, what has
drastically altered the international map was not just the
terrorist attack of Sept.11. Of even greater importance was the
determination of the United States, the world's only super power,
to mobilize all forces in order to destroy Osama bin Laden and
his al-Qaeda terrorist organization, and in that connection also
the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, which provided a base of Osama
bin Laden.

Ironically, the world situation has become very much more
simplified because of the simple yardstick applied by President
George W. Bush in qualifying who are friends and who are foes.
Jiang Zemin in Beijing and Vladimir Putin in Moscow have managed
to make pragmatic adjustments toward the U.S. by declaring that
they too are against terrorist activities.

It is Pakistan's General Pervaiz Musharraf, however, who has
shown the steel nerves of a high-stakes poker player. Although
historically it was Pakistan that nurtured the Taliban movement
and acted as a conduit for CIA assistance to that organization
during its fight against Soviet occupation, President Musharraf
took the courageous and realistic decision of supporting the
U.S.'s action in Afghanistan.

Had the Taliban not crumbled in eight weeks, most probably the
Musharraf regime would have been toppled by a coup d'etat. Now at
least President Musharraf can benefit from the U.S.'s substantial
assistance to strengthen Pakistan's economy. Indeed, the hallmark
of high-caliber leaders is their courage to take risks without
becoming reckless. Against that backdrop, President Megawati's
government seems to be wavering in coping with the post-Sept.11
world situation.

To be fair, her government had been in existence for only
about a month and had inherited a policy mess when the Sept. 11
attacks in the U.S. took place. Her decision to go ahead and
visit Washington and meet with President George W. Bush could
have marked the beginning of a positive policy approach toward
the U.S. After all, given Indonesia's weakened position as a
result of the 1997 monetary crisis and President Soeharto's
dramatic resignation in 1998, confounded by the erratic policies
of his successors, B.J. Habibie and Abdurrahman Wahid, there is
every reason to argue for closer cooperation with the U.S.

The Megawati government should have realized from the
beginning that fighting terrorism at home is not aimed at
accommodating Washington, but at establishing a climate of peace
throughout this sprawling archipelagic state in order to speed up
social and economic rehabilitation. Instead, a series of
confusing signals emanated from Jakarta, reflecting an ambivalent
attitude to fighting terrorism that dampened Washington's
enthusiasm to assist Indonesia.

Another significant development in the passing year that
deserves Jakarta's wary attention is the emergence of the
People's Republic of China not only as an economic power, but as
a world power which in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks has
managed to forge a functioning relationship with the U.S. China's
final entry into the World Trade Organization underlines that
country's prominent international position. At least in this
respect the Megawati government has, surprisingly, shown much-
needed realism.

The recent visit by a delegation of Cabinet ministers led by
the President's husband, Taufik Kiemas, to China to secure the
sale of liquid natural gas from the Tangguh field in Irian Jaya
shows that Jakarta realizes the importance of developing a wide-
ranging scheme of cooperation with this impressive economic
locomotive in Asia. If Japan provided the economic and financial
underpinnings of President Soeharto's regime during the 1970s --
reciprocated by Jakarta with a steady supply of energy products
-- then perhaps China could well be the effective economic
partner of Indonesia in its effort to speed up its economic
recovery.

Another phenomenon that Indonesia should follow carefully is
the increasing economic muscle of a united Europe. The
introduction of the euro currency on Jan. 1 symbolizes Europe's
assertiveness on the international scene. We can observe this
assertiveness in a number of initiatives taken in Brussels with
relation to the Middle East and Afghanistan. Perhaps Indonesia's
scattered diplomatic representation throughout European countries
could be made more concentrated and focused in accordance with
the ongoing process in a Europe that is becoming more united.

Thus, the Megawati government should improve its capability in
the upcoming year 2002 to reap the maximum benefits from the
opportunities that present themselves, whether in North America,
Asia or Europe, in order to ensure that the process of
democratization at home, coupled with economic rehabilitation,
proceeds successfully. However, this adroitness in ferreting out
opportunities in the existing, seemingly perplexing world
situation requires a more decisive posture within the Megawati-
Hamzah Haz government.

As the economist Sjahrir pointed out recently in his year-end
statement as chairman of the Perhimpunan Indonesia Baru
(Association of a New Indonesia): "We have witnessed during the
year 2001 a government in which decision makers did not carry out
the task of decision making."