The world of 2001

One of the preeminent qualities of Sutan Sjahrir as prime minister and foreign minister of the infant Republic at the end of 1945 was his ability to make a sharp analysis of the post- World War II world situation and to draw the correct conclusions to position the Republic's diplomatic efforts in facing the return of Dutch colonialism.

At present, as we approach the end of this eventful year of 2001, which according to the Chinese zodiac was the Year of the Snake, it is perhaps even more important for us to have a clear picture of this passing year to enable us to discover windows of opportunities in the coming year that could enhance Indonesia's national interests.

Undoubtedly, the horrific events of Sept. 11 have dominated the world scene to the point of making it seem that nothing of importance happened before that fateful day. In reality, what has drastically altered the international map was not just the terrorist attack of Sept.11. Of even greater importance was the determination of the United States, the world's only super power, to mobilize all forces in order to destroy Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda terrorist organization, and in that connection also the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, which provided a base of Osama bin Laden.

Ironically, the world situation has become very much more simplified because of the simple yardstick applied by President George W. Bush in qualifying who are friends and who are foes. Jiang Zemin in Beijing and Vladimir Putin in Moscow have managed to make pragmatic adjustments toward the U.S. by declaring that they too are against terrorist activities.

It is Pakistan's General Pervaiz Musharraf, however, who has shown the steel nerves of a high-stakes poker player. Although historically it was Pakistan that nurtured the Taliban movement and acted as a conduit for CIA assistance to that organization during its fight against Soviet occupation, President Musharraf took the courageous and realistic decision of supporting the U.S.'s action in Afghanistan.

Had the Taliban not crumbled in eight weeks, most probably the Musharraf regime would have been toppled by a coup d'etat. Now at least President Musharraf can benefit from the U.S.'s substantial assistance to strengthen Pakistan's economy. Indeed, the hallmark of high-caliber leaders is their courage to take risks without becoming reckless. Against that backdrop, President Megawati's government seems to be wavering in coping with the post-Sept.11 world situation.

To be fair, her government had been in existence for only about a month and had inherited a policy mess when the Sept. 11 attacks in the U.S. took place. Her decision to go ahead and visit Washington and meet with President George W. Bush could have marked the beginning of a positive policy approach toward the U.S. After all, given Indonesia's weakened position as a result of the 1997 monetary crisis and President Soeharto's dramatic resignation in 1998, confounded by the erratic policies of his successors, B.J. Habibie and Abdurrahman Wahid, there is every reason to argue for closer cooperation with the U.S.

The Megawati government should have realized from the beginning that fighting terrorism at home is not aimed at accommodating Washington, but at establishing a climate of peace throughout this sprawling archipelagic state in order to speed up social and economic rehabilitation. Instead, a series of confusing signals emanated from Jakarta, reflecting an ambivalent attitude to fighting terrorism that dampened Washington's enthusiasm to assist Indonesia.

Another significant development in the passing year that deserves Jakarta's wary attention is the emergence of the People's Republic of China not only as an economic power, but as a world power which in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks has managed to forge a functioning relationship with the U.S. China's final entry into the World Trade Organization underlines that country's prominent international position. At least in this respect the Megawati government has, surprisingly, shown much- needed realism.

The recent visit by a delegation of Cabinet ministers led by the President's husband, Taufik Kiemas, to China to secure the sale of liquid natural gas from the Tangguh field in Irian Jaya shows that Jakarta realizes the importance of developing a wide- ranging scheme of cooperation with this impressive economic locomotive in Asia. If Japan provided the economic and financial underpinnings of President Soeharto's regime during the 1970s -- reciprocated by Jakarta with a steady supply of energy products -- then perhaps China could well be the effective economic partner of Indonesia in its effort to speed up its economic recovery.

Another phenomenon that Indonesia should follow carefully is the increasing economic muscle of a united Europe. The introduction of the euro currency on Jan. 1 symbolizes Europe's assertiveness on the international scene. We can observe this assertiveness in a number of initiatives taken in Brussels with relation to the Middle East and Afghanistan. Perhaps Indonesia's scattered diplomatic representation throughout European countries could be made more concentrated and focused in accordance with the ongoing process in a Europe that is becoming more united.

Thus, the Megawati government should improve its capability in the upcoming year 2002 to reap the maximum benefits from the opportunities that present themselves, whether in North America, Asia or Europe, in order to ensure that the process of democratization at home, coupled with economic rehabilitation, proceeds successfully. However, this adroitness in ferreting out opportunities in the existing, seemingly perplexing world situation requires a more decisive posture within the Megawati- Hamzah Haz government.

As the economist Sjahrir pointed out recently in his year-end statement as chairman of the Perhimpunan Indonesia Baru (Association of a New Indonesia): "We have witnessed during the year 2001 a government in which decision makers did not carry out the task of decision making."