The U.S. 'revitalizes' its Southeast Asia policy

Kavi Chongkittavorn, The Nation, Asia News Network, Bangkok

It was a splendid coincidence in Washington. Last week the cherry blossoms (sakura) were in full bloom, beautifully dotting the curve of the Potomac River and hanging over the sidewalks, giving this capital city the air of Tokyo's Yoyogi Park.

This springtime also brings with it a more focused U.S. diplomacy towards Southeast Asia. When U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visits Vientiane to attend the ASEAN foreign ministerial meeting in July, Washington will have worked out its policy for the next four years for this region, which was much neglected during the Bush administration's first term.

The State Department is very upbeat now that the new foreign- policy team under Rice has been finalized. Assistant Secretary of State for Asia and Pacific Affairs Chris Hill reported to work at the State Department last week, joining Deputy Secretary of State Robert B Zoellick, who is planning to tour the region soon.

A senior administration official who has been posted in Thailand and Malaysia said that U.S. policy towards ASEAN during the second Bush term would be more attentive to the cooperative schemes in the region.

In the past, the official admitted, there had been some slippage regarding the grouping and individual members. The U.S. will be more active in two key regional meetings, the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec), which the U.S. helped found. These two bodies serve useful purposes as they represent key opportunities for U.S. leaders to meet their Asian counterparts.

After a burst of enthusiasm that lasted from 1994 until 2000, U.S. interest in the ARF gradually faded. This is partly due to the snail's pace of progress at the ARF over the past decade. The U.S. and other non-ASEAN members, including Japan, would like to see the ARF moving at a faster pace towards the second stage of preventive diplomacy. But China and ASEAN prefer to proceed as cautiously as possible. After all, they believe the ARF is a forum for dialogue, not a settlement mechanism.

China has now become a major driving force in the ARF along with ASEAN. Beijing has also effectively used the forum to air and share its security interests and perspectives on the region.

Apec has lost its luster since it was founded in 1989, mainly due to the changed priorities after September 11. Instead of focusing on trade liberalization and tariff reduction, the forum has dwelt on measures to forge closer alliances to fight terrorism and militancy.

This time around the U.S. will utilize the Enterprise for ASEAN Initiative (EAI) as a framework to create a new strategic alliance with individual ASEAN members that are committed to economic reforms and openness.

The official warned that one issue that could force a stand- off between the U.S. and ASEAN was the intransigence in Burma. In the next few weeks the U.S. Congress is expected to renew the Burma Freedom and Democracy Act and continue the total ban on exports from Burma.

Washington is receptive to the initiative by ASEAN MPs who have called for the suspension of Burma's chairmanship in ASEAN next year and hopes that the move will produce a concrete outcome when the ASEAN foreign ministers meet in Vientiane. At the meeting last week in Cebu, the Philippines, the ASEAN foreign ministers left it to Burma to decide whether to chair and subsequently host the ASEAN annual and summit meetings.

In the next four years one can expect stronger statements from the U.S. to consolidate its cooperation and friendship with Singapore, Indonesia and Vietnam. The leaders of these three ASEAN countries are scheduled to visit Washington before July, when their ASEAN colleagues meets in Laos. The White House has yet to invite Thaksin to visit the U.S. officially.

The U.S.'s attitude towards Thailand remains ambivalent at best. Despite the high-profile praise from the U.S. for Thailand's quick response to the tsunami disaster, the decision to open U-tapao air base, dispatching troops to Iraq and anti- terrorism cooperation, administration and Congress sources continue to be perplexed by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's strong support for Rangoon.

Other core ASEAN members, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore, have already stepped up pressure on Burma through their MPs. Thailand's backing of Burma has already diminished the Thai role as an honest broker.

In the months to come Thai policy could further hamper Thai- U.S. ties, including the ongoing free-trade agreement negotiations between the two countries. Congress has expressed serious concern over Thailand's handling of Burmese refugees as well as Burma's effort to turn itself into a nuclear state.

Burma's renewed ties with North Korea have come under the watchful eye of nuclear-proliferation experts and the U.S. Congress. Russia and North Korea are helping Burma to build a nuclear-power plant and utilize nuclear-related technology, according to Congressional sources. At least 300 Burmese officials are receiving training in nuclear technology in Russia.

While the U.S. has made it clear that it values its ties with ASEAN, it will not jump on the ASEAN-plus-one bandwagon. The U.S. is the only superpower that does not have a summit with the group. China, Russia and India both have an annual summit with ASEAN.

The Bush administration continues to believe that attractiveness and power lie in a country's freedom and democracy. In the 21st century, the world community will be made up of countries with ideas of freedom, not raw power. As a reflection of this broad framework, the U.S. policy towards the region will zero in on openness and choice.

That explains why Washington remains cool to the concept of the East Asian Summit (EAS), which will meet in Kuala Lumpur later this year. Singapore and Indonesia would like to see the EAS develop into a new form of regional cooperation incorporating other countries, but ASEAN has not yet reached a consensus on this issue.