The uncertainty of it all

The uncertainty of it all

The battle between President Abdurrahman Wahid and his
political opponents has entered a new, but not necessarily
decisive, phase this week.

Students from various elite state universities, led by those
from the University of Indonesia, conducted a sit-in on Monday
and Tuesday at the House of Representatives (DPR) complex, adding
to the growing chorus of demands for the President to step down.

The call for a national strike by the network of Student
Executive Boards (BEMs) of the leading universities may have gone
largely unheeded on Monday, but their message for a change in the
national leadership still reflects a growing sentiment among the
people of this country.

The sight of thousands of students camping in the DPR compound
and holding rallies prompted the leadership and working committee
of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the country's
supreme political institution, to meet on Tuesday and review the
various options available for breaking the political impasse.

MPR chairman Amien Rais, arguing that a change of guard is now
simply a matter of time, has outlined three scenarios.

The first is for Abdurrahman to resign and hand over executive
power to Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri. This option would
simplify matters, while also sparing the nation the agony of
enduring the seemingly endless battle between the President and
the legislature.

Megawati, in the meantime, has gained increasing endorsement
to take over the helm, even from the Muslim political parties
which, in 1999, conspired to deprive her of the presidency,
instead giving it to Abdurrahman. While this may be the preferred
option for the President's detractors, the matter is entirely in
his hands. By the look of things, the President is not likely to
bow down to the mounting pressure and resign any time soon.

The second option is to replace Abdurrahman through the
constitutional mechanism. The House of Representatives has issued
a memorandum of censure against the President, which is the first
step of a long and arduous impeachment process. The President has
until May to respond to the memorandum, which was issued in
relation to his alleged role in two financial scandals. The House
has an option to either accept his response, in which case the
whole case against the President would be dropped, or issue a
second memorandum.

If a second memorandum is issued, some two months later the
House can ask the MPR to hold an extraordinary session seeking
accountability from the President. The MPR's rejection of the
President's response will lead to his impeachment. While this
option may be arduous and time-consuming, it complies with the
Constitution. This is the option that those who profess to
respect the Constitution choose. Among them are Megawati and the
Indonesian Military.

The third option is for the MPR to hold an extraordinary
session to call for the President's accountability immediately,
rather than waiting until the memorandum process runs its full
course.

Critics of the government, including Amien Rais and students
in the BEM network, say the nation cannot afford to wait until
July or August to resolve the national leadership quandary. This
option entails circumventing the Constitution, and even Amien is
unsure that it could succeed in achieving the objective.

There are probably other scenarios, such as a military
takeover or for the nation to simply degenerate into total chaos,
but what is clear is that the current political impasse is
undermining what little confidence in the government is still
left among the people of this country and abroad.

With virtually the entire political elite in Indonesia
consumed by the battle over the national leadership issue in the
coming weeks or months, there is bound to be even less effective
governance by the administration.

We have already witnessed what this lack of effective
governance has done to the country, from the violence in Sampit,
Central Kalimantan, and the ensuing flood of refugees, to the
plunge in the rupiah's value and the International Monetary
Fund's decision to delay the disbursement of badly needed
financial assistance.

The fate of this nation is in the hands of its political
leaders. While these leaders profess to play a little game they
fondly call democracy, they should also realize that, unless the
national leadership issue is quickly resolved, the 210 million
people living in Indonesia cannot continue in this era of
uncertainty for much longer. For, in areas like Maluku, Aceh, and
parts of Central Kalimantan, democracy is already turning into
anarchy.