The uncertainty of it all

The battle between President Abdurrahman Wahid and his political opponents has entered a new, but not necessarily decisive, phase this week.

Students from various elite state universities, led by those from the University of Indonesia, conducted a sit-in on Monday and Tuesday at the House of Representatives (DPR) complex, adding to the growing chorus of demands for the President to step down.

The call for a national strike by the network of Student Executive Boards (BEMs) of the leading universities may have gone largely unheeded on Monday, but their message for a change in the national leadership still reflects a growing sentiment among the people of this country.

The sight of thousands of students camping in the DPR compound and holding rallies prompted the leadership and working committee of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the country's supreme political institution, to meet on Tuesday and review the various options available for breaking the political impasse.

MPR chairman Amien Rais, arguing that a change of guard is now simply a matter of time, has outlined three scenarios.

The first is for Abdurrahman to resign and hand over executive power to Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri. This option would simplify matters, while also sparing the nation the agony of enduring the seemingly endless battle between the President and the legislature.

Megawati, in the meantime, has gained increasing endorsement to take over the helm, even from the Muslim political parties which, in 1999, conspired to deprive her of the presidency, instead giving it to Abdurrahman. While this may be the preferred option for the President's detractors, the matter is entirely in his hands. By the look of things, the President is not likely to bow down to the mounting pressure and resign any time soon.

The second option is to replace Abdurrahman through the constitutional mechanism. The House of Representatives has issued a memorandum of censure against the President, which is the first step of a long and arduous impeachment process. The President has until May to respond to the memorandum, which was issued in relation to his alleged role in two financial scandals. The House has an option to either accept his response, in which case the whole case against the President would be dropped, or issue a second memorandum.

If a second memorandum is issued, some two months later the House can ask the MPR to hold an extraordinary session seeking accountability from the President. The MPR's rejection of the President's response will lead to his impeachment. While this option may be arduous and time-consuming, it complies with the Constitution. This is the option that those who profess to respect the Constitution choose. Among them are Megawati and the Indonesian Military.

The third option is for the MPR to hold an extraordinary session to call for the President's accountability immediately, rather than waiting until the memorandum process runs its full course.

Critics of the government, including Amien Rais and students in the BEM network, say the nation cannot afford to wait until July or August to resolve the national leadership quandary. This option entails circumventing the Constitution, and even Amien is unsure that it could succeed in achieving the objective.

There are probably other scenarios, such as a military takeover or for the nation to simply degenerate into total chaos, but what is clear is that the current political impasse is undermining what little confidence in the government is still left among the people of this country and abroad.

With virtually the entire political elite in Indonesia consumed by the battle over the national leadership issue in the coming weeks or months, there is bound to be even less effective governance by the administration.

We have already witnessed what this lack of effective governance has done to the country, from the violence in Sampit, Central Kalimantan, and the ensuing flood of refugees, to the plunge in the rupiah's value and the International Monetary Fund's decision to delay the disbursement of badly needed financial assistance.

The fate of this nation is in the hands of its political leaders. While these leaders profess to play a little game they fondly call democracy, they should also realize that, unless the national leadership issue is quickly resolved, the 210 million people living in Indonesia cannot continue in this era of uncertainty for much longer. For, in areas like Maluku, Aceh, and parts of Central Kalimantan, democracy is already turning into anarchy.