The two Philippine women presidents

William Esposo Philippine Daily Inquirer Asia News Network Manila

Last December, I was invited to address a class at the Asian Institute of Management (AIM) on how I compared the way Filipinos regard the terms and the characters of the two Philippine women presidents -- Corazon C. Aquino and Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.This was before President Macapagal-Arroyo made her historic Rizal Day announcement to no longer run in 2004 and which thereby bought her respite from the mounting public criticism and dismay over her administration.

I was addressing the communications strategy class of former Presidential Management Staff secretary Sonny Coloma, a dean at the AIM and a regular columnist of the Businessworld. The discussion took a clinical analysis of the net impressions the two women presidents have on our people. Having organized and managed the Cory Media Bureau for the 1986 Snap Campaign and having worked for two years as a Macapagal-Arroyo communications adviser from 1995 to 1997 (when she made a bid for the 1998 presidency but then only to drop out and settle for the Lakas- NUCD VP slot) made me a suitable resource person.

The highlights of my comparison:

1. Cory Aquino came to the job with only the moral high ground in tow, having nary any experience in governance and bereft of the affected pretensions common among elected politicians. Macapagal-Arroyo on the other hand came to the office academically prepared, with a presidential pedigree from her father, the former president, an executive and legislative experience, and the highest number of votes ever gotten by a vice presidential candidate.

2. Both women presidents came to the presidency via People Power: EDSA I for Aquino and EDSA II for Macapagal-Arroyo. Both their terms were marked by turmoil. Six coup attempts against President Aquino and one uprising against President Macapagal- Arroyo barely four months into her term.

3. Aquino to my view retained her following and to this day continues to be regarded the Joan of Arc of Asia while Macapagal- Arroyo is fast losing hers as followers shift focus back to their original cause.

4. Aquino dedicated her term to people empowerment and the ideals of EDSA I that made her president. Macapagal-Arroyo's coalition has splintered amid widespread disillusionment over her departure from the mandate of EDSA II. In business, the first and foremost rule is to retain and secure market share. Macapagal- Arroyo did not learn this lesson or may have simply forgotten it.

5. The people trusted Aquino while Macapagal-Arroyo suffered a big credibility problem. I attribute the trust people had in Aquino to the consistency of her actions. Her husband, the martyr Ninoy, was also a contributing factor but even this would not have mattered had Aquino had not been true to their shared ideals.

On the other hand, Macapagal-Arroyo's husband, Mike Arroyo, was her handicap: A male epitome of what I call the Imelda syndrome. After Imelda Marcos, I maintained that all future First Ladies or Gentlemen will have to deal with an overly suspicious public who will tend to think that every First Lady or First Gentleman is always the biggest Rasputin. Alas, for Macapagal- Arroyo, Mike did not learn this lesson at all and is now associated with just about every major scandal.

The court of public opinion does not operate in an equilibrium. Much of what shapes public opinion come from preconceived notions and biases which are further fueled by deliberate disinformation, Goebbels-style. The misshapen information is made even worse as each person tosses in his own commentaries. Mike Arroyo forgot how Caesar's wife had to be seen or did not realize that it also applied to Cleopatra's husband.

The core of the residual images and feelings Aquino and Macapagal-Arroyo left with people centered on character. People trusted Aquino. I am sad to say that the surveys corroborate the perception of deep distrust for Macapgal-Arroyo. Both presidents for instance shared an Iraq crisis during their respective terms. It was the 1991 Gulf War for Aquino (waged by then U.S. president George Bush) and for Macapagal-Arroyo it is the now looming showdown between Saddam Hussein and George W. Bush.

But the actions taken by Aquino and Macapagal-Arroyo contrast dramatically. Seeing that the greater national interest were overseas Filipino worker jobs and the supply of oil which rested in Arab hands, Aquino took a neutral stance. In contrast, even amid the anti-war positions of U.S. allies like France, Germany and Russia, Macapagal-Arroyo went on an all-out support for the U.S. position. Her recent sortie to Kuwait was perceived as another deception: She aids Bush promote war on one hand and turns around to assure jobs and safety to those in the vicinity of the war she just helped promote on the other.

Macapagal-Arroyo's Rizal Day announcement offered new opportunities and even her strongest critics were inclined to give her a chance to redeem her family's name in the pantheon of presidents -- hoping to see the country improve with it. However, too early in the year with barely a month and a half after her announcement, political watchers and the suspicious public are starting to see a course of action which belies her announcement not to run. Action speaks louder than words and recent presidential actions show that it is politics as usual.

Reliable sources have reported the existence of a separate communications staff composed of former Estrada press secretary Rod Reyes, former Marcos Office of Media Affairs chief Greg Cendana, new Chief of Staff Rigoberto Tiglao and presidential publicist Dante Ang among others. The group's first major undertaking is to manage a "clamor for the president to reconsider and run in 2004". The plan is to launch in the provinces before "snowballing" to the national scene (a recent Roxas City sortie seems to be the start of this plan). Per the report we got, there is even a plan to tell the people in the provinces, where pro-American sentiments run high, that U.S. president George W. Bush is endorsing Macapagal-Arroyo "to run in order to provide leadership during this time of crisis".

For the sake of Macapagal-Arroyo and the many who saw in her decision not to run in 2004 a chance for better times, we must just pray that none of these acts of deception are true. I shudder to think of the impact it will have on the populace. Before all these, I was one of those who dispelled the rumors that a coup or another EDSA is in the works and called these as nothing but wishful thinking by the doomsayers simply because I know the promoters of these scenarios are an insignificant minority with no real wide-scale national support.

But this deception, if true, could just about be the turning point the doomsayers warn about -- a bloody system overhaul which no one wants and I pray we never experience in our lifetime. Macapagal-Arroyo must learn from Marcos who lost his presidency when he lost his credibility. Losing his popularity and eventually his army was but the product of lost Marcos credibility.