The trial of Saddam will inflame the Arab world

Georgy Mirsky, Chief Researcher and Professor, Institute of World Economy and International Relations (Russian Academy of Sciences), RIA Novosti, Moscow

The answer to the questions of whom, when and how should try former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein depends on how soon Iraq regains sovereignty and the structure of power. Besides, the U.S. election campaign can influence Saddam's fate, too.

There are two variants of the trial of the deposed Iraqi dictator: Either by an international tribunal like the Hague Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia or by an Iraqi court.

The latter variant seems more probable, as Saddam Hussein committed his most heinous crimes against his own people. One of his greatest crimes was the genocide of Kurds: 100,000-160,000 Kurds died in the Anfal campaign initiated by Saddam in 1989. In Halabja alone, at least 5,000 died a flaming death and many more were maimed when the city was bombed with tanks with toxic materials.

After the international coalition liberated Kuwait from the Iraqi occupation in 1991, the Kurds and Shiite Arabs rose against the central authorities, hoping that the Americans would support their uprising -- which they didn't do. Instead, they allowed Saddam to suppress the revolt, killing tens of thousands of the rebels and forcing many Shiite leaders into emigration.

Before that, the regime dealt with the Marsh Arabs, the tribes that lived at the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates who have always lived separately and in opposition to the central authorities.

Besides, Saddam Hussein had always dealt harshly with his political opponents. When he became president, he ordered the execution of the top leaders of the Baath party, including his relatives, and the leaders of the Communist Party, and the persecution of the Shiite spiritual leaders.

The list of military crimes of Saddam also includes the aggression against Kuwait in August 1990 and the use of toxic agents in the war with Iran in violation of the relevant international convention. Kuwait and Iran plan to submit a list of their complaints to Saddam, yet the people of Iraq will be his main prosecutor.

When the Americans arrested the dictator, the people of Iraq walked out demanding that Saddam be turned over to them. If he is tried by an international court, a considerable part of Iraqis will be outraged.

However, the international community, in particular lawyers, will call for an international trial, arguing that the Iraqis are biased, not to mention the fact that there is no proper judicial system or any other system of governance in Iraq. It will be created only after power is turned over to Iraqis, who will form a government and other state institutions.

Iraq is expected to regain sovereignty by July 1. But will the occupation administration keep to the schedule stipulated by the Americans and the temporary ruling council of Iraq?

The Shiites demand that direct elections to the Iraqi parliament be held before July 1 (they constitute 60 percent of the population and hence hope to gain broad representation in all bodies of power).

However, direct elections cannot be held in conditions of daily terrorism, as they should be preceded by a population census and the creation of electoral districts and election commissions. Besides, nobody can guarantee that the people who will come to the polling stations will not become easy targets for terrorists.

The UN inspectors, whom the Americans have involved in the restoration of political life in Iraq, believe that direct elections should be postponed until the end of the year.

Hence, the Americans, who do not want the Shiites to rise against them, may decide to postpone also the transfer of sovereignty to the Iraqis -- and the trial of Hussein. The advocates of an international trial may use this to advance their case. The probability of an international trial cannot be ruled out because the U.S. presidential elections will be held in November and the trial of Saddam may be useful as a PR action. In this case, Saddam will be sentenced to life imprisonment.

If the trial is held in Iraq, the verdict will be capital punishment, which international lawyers cannot accept. Western Europe is against capital punishment as such and hence will rise against such a sentence in the case of Saddam Hussein, though the U.S. would welcome it.

But no matter what verdict is passed on Saddam Hussein, the trial will not improve the situation in Iraq and other countries. On the contrary, it may spur on the terrorist war in Iraq. International terrorists, who have flocked to the country from all over the world, want to oust the Americans and take revenge on them for the loss of the 60 bases in Afghanistan.

If they succeed, they would be free to strike at other countries, including Europe and Russia. But the Americans had not challenged the world community and the UN, risked quarreling with their NATO allies, and suffered so many moral and physical losses in Iraq to leave the country now.

Besides, a civil war will break out there as soon as they leave because of major differences between the Shiites and Sunnis, between Arabs and Kurds, between Kurds and Turkomans, and so on. These differences will be only aggravated after the elections, when the constitution will be signed and the forms of the new Iraqi regime will be elaborated. So far, only the presence of the Western coalition in the country is keeping the Iraqis from settling accounts with each other.

So, even if George Bush loses the November elections, his successor will do his best to create a stable local power in Iraq before withdrawing U.S. troops.

The reaction of the Arab world to the trial of Saddam will be equivocal. The ruling elite in the Arab countries has always hated the dictator, but the common people loved him. Many viewed Saddam as the only modern Arab leader who dared to challenge the U.S. and Israel. He was the hero of the Arab world praised as "the great leader of the Arab nation" and "the immortal knight of Arabism."

The Americans broadcast the humiliating arrest of the "knight" in an attempt to discredit him in the eyes of the Arabs. But anti-American sentiments continue growing in the Arab world. The defeat of Iraq, one of the largest and strongest Arab countries, was humiliating for Arabs and the arrest of Saddam became an additional heavy blow at their pride.

No statistics can show how many people heaved a sigh of relief when the regime of Saddam Hussein was toppled. But the trouble is that it happened with the help of Americans, which split the mind of Iraqis and other Arabs. On the one hand, they are glad that Saddam's dictatorship has fallen. On the other hand, they are not happy that dictatorship was replaced with foreign occupation.

As for the other countries, they do not care what happens to the dictator.