The Texas summit

By all accounts the meeting between the leader of China, Jiang Zemin, and U.S. President George Bush Jr. in the latter's Texas ranch at Crawford today deserves to be referred to as one of the most important events in 2002. Here we have a meeting between the leader of a large, modernizing Asian country with a total population of roughly 1.3 billion people and the leader of the world's only superpower which possesses the most modern technology, especially in the military field. This meeting has been prepared for months and the smallest details discussed by scores of officials from both sides.

Obviously, the most important component in the structured program while Jiang Zemin is in Crawford -- besides a barbecue and a boat cruise with President Bush on the ranch lake -- is the scheduled meeting between just the two of them, witnessed only by their personal interpreters. It is true that Jiang Zemin, who is now 76-years old, has to give up his party post as secretary- general and chairman of the military committee during the 16th party congress that will commence on Nov. 8. And in March next year, during the annual session of the National People's Congress, he is expected to step down from the presidency.

However, with regard to China-U.S. bilateral relations Jiang Zemin is carrying with him the unified stand of the party's Politburo. In basic terms, for years to come, China needs a stabilized relationship with the U.S. in order to complete its gigantic modernization process. In that regard, President George Bush Jr. is not facing the lame duck leader of China during their summit today. Most probably, they will discuss the following main issues.

Taiwan: Beijing is willing to resolve the unification issue peacefully, since time is on its side, as long as Washington D.C. stops providing the island with modern weaponry and does not pledge to co-defend it.

Tibet: The U.S. will prod China to open a dialogue with the Dalai Lama.

Technology: Jiang Zemin will appeal to his host to lift the suspension of U.S. technology that has been in force since 1989 due to the suppression of the Tienanmen uprising.

Trade: The U.S. expects that China will scrupulously adhere to the WTO rules by opening its huge and expanding market to American exports. China's total trade volume for this year is expected to achieve US$ 600 billion with a GDP growth for 2002 by 7.8 percent.

Iraq: Washington expects that Beijing will at least adopt a position of abstention in the UN Security Council when the draft resolutions on Iraq are tabled.

Human rights: George Bush will perfunctorily raise this issue in a friendly manner and will refrain from applying moralistic judgments on China's not-so-perfect record in this regard.

Signs that China is keen on creating a conducive atmosphere on the eve of the summit meeting in Texas today can be observed from the fact that a number of purchasing contracts were signed by China Unicom Group with Lucent Technologies Inc. and Motorola Inc., covering telecommunication equipment worth almost US$1 billion. Earlier this week, China Petroleum and Chemical Corp. signed an agreement with Exxon Mobile covering several joint venture projects, including a planned $3 billion refinery and petrochemical complex.

It is important for us in Indonesia to keep following the developments in bilateral relations between China and the U.S. since the instability that could arise from tensions or friction between those two giants across the Pacific could be detrimental to Indonesia and other countries of the Southeast Asian region, which already are beset by myriad of complex problems.

On the other hand, we need to analyze whether cooperation between the two -- China, which is still officially a communist state, and the U.S., which has the largest capitalist economic system in the world -- will be beneficial to both Indonesia and the region.