The sword that hangs heavy over Asia

By William Choong

SINGAPORE: Amid the debate raging about the deployment of a national missile defense (NMD) system in Washington last summer, French President Jacques Chirac made a telling remark about the viability of such a system.

In typical Gallic fashion, he said that "ever since man began waging war, you will see that there's a permanent race between sword and shield. The sword always wins".

Perhaps Washington should mull over the strategic impact of that statement.

Former American President Bill Clinton probably grasped that rudimentary concept when he delayed the deployment of the NMD system in September. His rationale for the delay was two-pronged -- the diplomatic costs stemming from a Russian reaction to an American withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and the strategic costs arising from Moscow and Beijing's halting of cooperation on key issues like arms control.

However, there now appears to be enough policy momentum on Capitol Hill to deploy an all-encompassing system that could knock out missiles launched anywhere from Baghdad to Beijing.

While on the campaign trail, President George W. Bush articulated a wider-reaching carapace that could knock down not only missiles from rogue states like North Korea and Iraq, but also from great powers, Russia and China. The upshot of arguments for some form of NMD is simple -- there needs to be some form of "strategic insurance" against missiles launched by pariahs like North Korea and Iraq.

At a more theoretical level, NMD advocates argue for the abandonment of what is termed "rational deterrence" -- a Cold War concept whereby the superpowers promise debilitating nuclear strikes against the other if it were ever attacked.

National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice dismisses the Anti- Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty as a "relic" of the rivalry between the United States and the now-defunct Soviet Union. But the problem with abandoning deterrence is that its premises still hold.

The beauty of deterrence lies in a paradox -- under it, nuclear weapons became virtually useless since their usefulness stemmed from their non-use.

A corollary of this somewhat-warped logic, however, would be that the adherence of deterrence between the United States and the Soviet Union ensured the long and febrile peace during the Cold War. Under the ABM Treaty, both superpowers enshrined deterrence in practice by banning the use of missile defenses. This rendered them vulnerable to nuclear strikes.

The abandonment of what international-relations experts term "strategic vulnerability" could turn Asia into a region chock- full of what late nuclear theorist Albert Wohlstetter called the "nuclear-armed crowd". In other words, any abandonment of deterrence through NMD deployment looks set to trigger a case of nuclear dominoes.

The deployment of countermeasures to pre-empt NMD by one state leads to the deployment of nuclear weapons by other states. China and Russia have made it clear that they would deploy more multiple-warhead missiles and other countermeasures to pre-empt Washington's NMD system.

According to a recent report, China is said to be increasing its small 20 long-range missile force to as many as 200 in a couple of years. Such actions will not go unheeded in Asia. The security futures of Asian states are so closely-knit and intertwined that the action of one would undoubtedly trigger a reaction by another.

If China were to deploy more nuclear weapons, Japan would feel threatened, prompting it to consider the nuclear option. India, too, might be pushed into considering wider nuclear options if Beijing accelerated its nuclear-weapons program.

The crux of the NMD deployment issue, therefore, is whether nuclear defense would replace the deterrence that we have known for five decades. But if Chirac's logic rules the day, swords will follow shields and, hence, more advanced nuclear-delivery systems will pre-empt NMD.

If that happens, dangerous pyrotechnics of the Asian variety would follow the abandonment of deterrence. It is up to Washington to take heed.

The writer, who is with The Straits Times, is the co-author of a research paper done at the University of Queensland on ballistic nuclear defense in Asia.

-- The Straits Times/Asia News Network