The real threat to security in Asia

The real threat to security in Asia

Michael Vatikiotis, Bangkok

Forget Taiwan. The real threat to security in Asia is the
brewing cold war between Japan and China. Most people believe
that serious animosity between China and Japan is constrained by
the growing economic symbiosis between Asia's largest economy and
its largest market-and more than US$100 billion in trade. Dream
on.

Feelings of hostility between Tokyo and Beijing run so deep
right now that China's Premier Wen Jiabao refused to hold a
bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Junichero Koizumi on the
sidelines of the recent Asia Europe meeting in Hanoi. This is a
disturbing development because up till now, China has managed to
maintain a working relationship with Japan on larger economic and
security issues that affect the entire region.

China's engagement with Japan has helped enhance regional
cooperation within the ASEAN plus three framework and develop
ideas for closer financial cooperation. As the Chinese put it:
"To jointly rejuvenate Asia." Engagement with Japan also helped
build the six-party talks framework, which keeps the United
States talking to North Korea over nuclear issues.

But ties have been strained by a number of recent issues.
Perhaps top of Beijing's list of grievances is the recent spate
of visits by Japanese leaders to the Yasukuni shrine, which
honours Japan's war dead. Koizumi already angered China by
visiting the shrine and as a result has yet to be invited to
visit China. Then in August, his presumptive heir, Shinzo Abe,
paid a visit, saying that as prime minister he would continue the
practice.

If it's hard to imagine why China continues to harp on Japan's
invasion and occupation of Chinese soil more than half a century
ago, then talk to the Jews about the holocaust. But for China
it's not just about the 300,000 who died in the Nanjing Massacre
of 1937-1938; it's also about Japan's refusal to fully repent.

In Japan, there are still those who deny that atrocities took
place, the most recent evidence of this being the successful
banning of a comic strip depicting the massacre in a youth
magazine, which was orchestrated by a group of right wing
politicians.

For its part, China has exploited anti-Japanese sentiment as a
useful incubator of nationalism in a society all too prone to
putting individual gain before the party's interest. Cruise the
China Daily's "on line community" website and the strength of
anti-Japanese sentiment becomes very evident. "The Japanese
committed many grievous and horrible crimes, and, unlike Germany,
was never made to fully repent," writes one contributor. "p.s.
two A-bombs were not enough," the contributor adds.

This refusal to forgive and forget has been cemented in
Chinese foreign policy. At a recent banquet to welcome his
arrival in Tokyo, China's ambassador Wang Yi, perhaps the most
senior Chinese career diplomat posted to an overseas mission,
reminded his hosts that the official slogan for Sino-Japanese
ties is "to face the future with the history as a mirror."

The tone is very bitter, even though his words are delivered
ostensibly in the spirit of friendship: "The correct attitude is:
to face squarely the historical facts, to oppose the words and
deeds for embellishing invasion and do nothing to injure the
feelings of the people of the war-victim country."

Bitterness aside, there are real geopolitical issues at stake
here. China's antipathy towards Japan could torpedo Tokyo's bid
for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council since
China has affirmed it supports India's bid over Japan's. China
also favours a European site for the world's first nuclear fusion
reactor rather than in Japan -- a multi-billion dollar investment
that could give Asia the leading edge in cheaper energy.

Energy could well provide the spark for a future conflict
between China and Japan. The flashpoint is a small chain of
islands off the coast of Japan, which China also claims. The
Senaku islands, known as the Diaoyu in China, are thought to
straddle potential fields of oil and gas. Tokyo recently angered
Beijing again, by renting several privately owned islands in the
chain to reinforce its claim.

At a recent security conference, one Chinese academic went so
far as to imagine a military clash if a Chinese oil company began
prospecting for oil and gas in the area and Japan mounted a
challenge.

Given China's appetite for oil, and Japan's rigid stance on
matters of sovereignty, it does seem more plausible that
accidents will occur here, than in the much feared Taiwan Strait.

The writer is a former editor and chief correspondent of the
Far Eastern Economic Review. He can be reached at
michaelvatikiotis@yahoo.com