The real threat to security in Asia
Michael Vatikiotis, Bangkok
Forget Taiwan. The real threat to security in Asia is the brewing cold war between Japan and China. Most people believe that serious animosity between China and Japan is constrained by the growing economic symbiosis between Asia's largest economy and its largest market-and more than US$100 billion in trade. Dream on.
Feelings of hostility between Tokyo and Beijing run so deep right now that China's Premier Wen Jiabao refused to hold a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Junichero Koizumi on the sidelines of the recent Asia Europe meeting in Hanoi. This is a disturbing development because up till now, China has managed to maintain a working relationship with Japan on larger economic and security issues that affect the entire region.
China's engagement with Japan has helped enhance regional cooperation within the ASEAN plus three framework and develop ideas for closer financial cooperation. As the Chinese put it: "To jointly rejuvenate Asia." Engagement with Japan also helped build the six-party talks framework, which keeps the United States talking to North Korea over nuclear issues.
But ties have been strained by a number of recent issues. Perhaps top of Beijing's list of grievances is the recent spate of visits by Japanese leaders to the Yasukuni shrine, which honours Japan's war dead. Koizumi already angered China by visiting the shrine and as a result has yet to be invited to visit China. Then in August, his presumptive heir, Shinzo Abe, paid a visit, saying that as prime minister he would continue the practice.
If it's hard to imagine why China continues to harp on Japan's invasion and occupation of Chinese soil more than half a century ago, then talk to the Jews about the holocaust. But for China it's not just about the 300,000 who died in the Nanjing Massacre of 1937-1938; it's also about Japan's refusal to fully repent.
In Japan, there are still those who deny that atrocities took place, the most recent evidence of this being the successful banning of a comic strip depicting the massacre in a youth magazine, which was orchestrated by a group of right wing politicians.
For its part, China has exploited anti-Japanese sentiment as a useful incubator of nationalism in a society all too prone to putting individual gain before the party's interest. Cruise the China Daily's "on line community" website and the strength of anti-Japanese sentiment becomes very evident. "The Japanese committed many grievous and horrible crimes, and, unlike Germany, was never made to fully repent," writes one contributor. "p.s. two A-bombs were not enough," the contributor adds.
This refusal to forgive and forget has been cemented in Chinese foreign policy. At a recent banquet to welcome his arrival in Tokyo, China's ambassador Wang Yi, perhaps the most senior Chinese career diplomat posted to an overseas mission, reminded his hosts that the official slogan for Sino-Japanese ties is "to face the future with the history as a mirror."
The tone is very bitter, even though his words are delivered ostensibly in the spirit of friendship: "The correct attitude is: to face squarely the historical facts, to oppose the words and deeds for embellishing invasion and do nothing to injure the feelings of the people of the war-victim country."
Bitterness aside, there are real geopolitical issues at stake here. China's antipathy towards Japan could torpedo Tokyo's bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council since China has affirmed it supports India's bid over Japan's. China also favours a European site for the world's first nuclear fusion reactor rather than in Japan -- a multi-billion dollar investment that could give Asia the leading edge in cheaper energy.
Energy could well provide the spark for a future conflict between China and Japan. The flashpoint is a small chain of islands off the coast of Japan, which China also claims. The Senaku islands, known as the Diaoyu in China, are thought to straddle potential fields of oil and gas. Tokyo recently angered Beijing again, by renting several privately owned islands in the chain to reinforce its claim.
At a recent security conference, one Chinese academic went so far as to imagine a military clash if a Chinese oil company began prospecting for oil and gas in the area and Japan mounted a challenge.
Given China's appetite for oil, and Japan's rigid stance on matters of sovereignty, it does seem more plausible that accidents will occur here, than in the much feared Taiwan Strait.
The writer is a former editor and chief correspondent of the Far Eastern Economic Review. He can be reached at michaelvatikiotis@yahoo.com