The race still open for all candidates: IFES

The race still open for all candidates: IFES

M. Taufiqurrahman, The Jakarta Post/Jakarta

Although Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is still being touted as the
favorite to assume the country's top job, the race remains open
for the incumbent president Megawati Soekarnoputri to outshine
him in the Sept. 20 runoff, a survey revealed.

In its latest survey, the Washington-based pollster
International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES) found that
63.1 percent of respondents believed that Susilo would make the
best president, beating Megawati who was chosen by 28.5 percent
of respondents.

IFES said the survey underscored the inability of the parties'
political machinery to determine their supporters' preference.

Megawati made a slight improvement according to the latest
IFES survey as 28.5 percent of voters favored her, compared to
24.4 percent in the previous poll.

"However, this finding must be treated with caution, and is
likely to change between now and Sept. 20 for a number of
reasons," IFES said.

In its latest tracking survey, the pollster interviewed 1,250
people in all provinces from Aug. 7 to Aug. 14. The margin for
error is 2.8 percent.

It said that among many factors at play that could sway the
support of voters were the fact that support that Susilo obtained
from voters from different political parties in the first stage
of the presidential election in July may mean that he was the
initial, but not necessarily the final, choice of those who did
not vote for Megawati.

In the first round of the election, Susilo enjoyed broad
support from supporters of political parties who had nominated
their own candidates, including Megawati's Indonesian Democratic
Party of Struggle.

The survey discovered, among other things, that 33.8 percent
of respondents who voted for the Golkar Party in the April 5
legislative election, chose Susilo in the first round of election
against 49.1 percent who voted for the party's candidate Wiranto.
It also found that 38.4 percent of respondents who voted for the
United Development Party, chose Susilo, while only 15.4 percent
of them voted for the party's presidential candidate Hamzah Haz.

IFES said that results of its surveys conducted before the
July 5 election had overstated the support for Susilo.

"With one month to go until the runoff, the relative standings
may change significantly," it said.

Scores of pollsters, including IFES, had predicted prior to
the July 5 elections, that Susilo and his running mate Jusuf
Kalla would garner more than 40 percent of the vote. In fact, the
pair collected 33.6 percent, according to the General Elections
Commission (KPU) manual vote-counting.

IFES senior advisor Hank Valentino said that Megawati could
still do much to challenge Susilo in the runoff by capitalizing
on her status as the incumbent.

"As the incumbent, Megawati has a greater opportunity to
ensure her message is being seen more during this time period,"
Valentino said.

Megawati received a boost to her morale from political groups
who declared last week a grand coalition involving four parties
to support her bid for a full five-year mandate.