The race still open for all candidates: IFES

M. Taufiqurrahman, The Jakarta Post/Jakarta

Although Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is still being touted as the favorite to assume the country's top job, the race remains open for the incumbent president Megawati Soekarnoputri to outshine him in the Sept. 20 runoff, a survey revealed.

In its latest survey, the Washington-based pollster International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES) found that 63.1 percent of respondents believed that Susilo would make the best president, beating Megawati who was chosen by 28.5 percent of respondents.

IFES said the survey underscored the inability of the parties' political machinery to determine their supporters' preference.

Megawati made a slight improvement according to the latest IFES survey as 28.5 percent of voters favored her, compared to 24.4 percent in the previous poll.

"However, this finding must be treated with caution, and is likely to change between now and Sept. 20 for a number of reasons," IFES said.

In its latest tracking survey, the pollster interviewed 1,250 people in all provinces from Aug. 7 to Aug. 14. The margin for error is 2.8 percent.

It said that among many factors at play that could sway the support of voters were the fact that support that Susilo obtained from voters from different political parties in the first stage of the presidential election in July may mean that he was the initial, but not necessarily the final, choice of those who did not vote for Megawati.

In the first round of the election, Susilo enjoyed broad support from supporters of political parties who had nominated their own candidates, including Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle.

The survey discovered, among other things, that 33.8 percent of respondents who voted for the Golkar Party in the April 5 legislative election, chose Susilo in the first round of election against 49.1 percent who voted for the party's candidate Wiranto. It also found that 38.4 percent of respondents who voted for the United Development Party, chose Susilo, while only 15.4 percent of them voted for the party's presidential candidate Hamzah Haz.

IFES said that results of its surveys conducted before the July 5 election had overstated the support for Susilo.

"With one month to go until the runoff, the relative standings may change significantly," it said.

Scores of pollsters, including IFES, had predicted prior to the July 5 elections, that Susilo and his running mate Jusuf Kalla would garner more than 40 percent of the vote. In fact, the pair collected 33.6 percent, according to the General Elections Commission (KPU) manual vote-counting.

IFES senior advisor Hank Valentino said that Megawati could still do much to challenge Susilo in the runoff by capitalizing on her status as the incumbent.

"As the incumbent, Megawati has a greater opportunity to ensure her message is being seen more during this time period," Valentino said.

Megawati received a boost to her morale from political groups who declared last week a grand coalition involving four parties to support her bid for a full five-year mandate.