The possible impact of the elections on ASEAN

The possible impact of the elections on ASEAN

Bantarto Bandoro

The last decade has seen tremendous pressure for greater
democratization in Southeast Asia. This pressure will be
sustained as Indonesia will hold its general election next year,
a process that will determine the country's destiny at the global
as well as regional and national level. It is also during such an
occasion that the world will witness how the fate and the future
of the Indonesian nation, economically and politically, is
decided and contested through the ballot box.

Once the elections are over, generally people then demand
greater peace, security and stability. They also demand sustained
economic growth, more prosperity and justice. But beyond these,
they will also want a legitimate government which is clean and
transparent. However, the process toward a more democratic
Indonesia alone is certainly not enough.

Indonesia must go beyond democracy to address something more
encompassing and more fruitful and promising; that is good
governance.

The countries in Southeast Asia will be very anxious to see
whether Indonesia can survive the election process peacefully.

The outcome of Indonesia's experiment in democracy would
certainly have a major impact in shaping the political evolution
of Southeast Asia as well as the long-term stability and security
of the region.

The coming general election will be very different from the
previous ones, because of the application of a new system and
rules.

Indonesia will have its first ever direct presidential
election, and this will have far-reaching implications for
democracy and stability in Asia and Southeast Asia in particular.

No one is sure whether the new system and rulings will
guarantee clean and fair elections. One may, therefore, cynically
argue that the new sets of rules will only make the process more
complicated, which is feared will create chaos and instability.

Maintaining stability and security has always been the core
concern of the countries in the region. No regional or national
policies are pursued without reference to such objectives.

It is inevitable that the changed political environment in the
region, caused either by domestic turbulence or external factors,
has to some extent affected the security of the region, and thus
the direction as well as the policies of a given country. It is
through such a prism that the region looks at our general
election.

By next year, Indonesia will certainly be the central focus in
the region as it develops into a more democratic country, a
process that would certainly be welcomed by most Southeast Asian
countries. But one must acknowledge the fact that democratic
change is really never easy, even for those who have practiced
democracy for a long period of time.

Rarely is democratic change peaceful. Often there is bloodshed
and turmoil. Southeast Asian countries might have this kind of
view toward Indonesia, one probably built upon the reality that
instability has long been perceived as a chronic condition in
Indonesia. Therefore, if democracy turns into street rallies and
brawls, and the citizens lose sight of the ultimate goals of
peace and prosperity, the road to true democracy and stability
will for sure not be smooth.

We have witnessed the fact that the country has changed
political leaders under unconstitutional or at best
constitutionally questionable circumstances. We also witnessed
that riots and violence filled the transition period from the
accession of B.J. Habibie to the presidency to president
Abdurrahman Wahid's removal by the People's Consultative Assembly
in July 2001. These did affect the progress toward a more
democratic society.

Megawati Soekarnoputri's ascension to the presidency indeed
defused the political crisis that preceded Abdurrahman's removal.
However, the obstacles to democratic consolidation remain
formidable even now.

That is to say that the 2004 general election will be
conducted amid very fragile domestic political and economic
conditions.

In addition, the election will be held at a time when the
country has not yet stabilized in terms of ethnic and religious
conflicts and threats to its territorial integrity. Under such
conditions our neighbors will be watching us. In short,
disintegration could be the last stage of the scenario, that
would drive the regional security environment in the opposite
direction.

Immanuel Kant

Reference has often been made to the thinking of Immanuel Kant
(1795) when one discusses the essential link between democracy
and stability. It is argued that democracy is one of the main
components for a prosperous and stable region. But the democratic
process in Indonesia can become a serious problem for the
stability of the region unless it is carefully and properly
managed.

Indonesia needs a high degree of awareness that
democratization requires hard work in promoting not only a sense
of stability -- domestically and regionally -- but also good
governance. Nation building is also a prerequisite in the
democratization process. Can the post-election Indonesia offer
such a hope, or can it even do better for itself and the region
as a whole?

At the regional level, a shared adherence to democratic values
should enable the countries in the region to enhance and
strengthen the stability and peace in the region. A democratic
Indonesia should be part of such a project provided that it not
only avoids a collapse of authority in Jakarta, with different
factions vying for power, but also has the capacity to sustain
long-term domestic stability.

Although the elections are still five months away, there is
already a widespread view that the chances of a stable democratic
transition are not good given the fact that the main candidates
have already started firing bullets at each other. This in turn
forces the candidates to react by -- among other things --
mobilizing their militia groups or launching counter political
moves at a higher level.

It is not impossible therefore that such a tendency will
emerge during the elections. The worst-case scenario is the
emergence of forces that backtrack and work against democracy.
There is reason therefore for the public here as well as the
countries in the region to be concerned about the negative impact
of the Indonesian elections. If anything bad happens, efforts to
promote peace, security, prosperity and regional integration
based on democratic principles will be substantially undermined.

The likely impact of the post-election Indonesia on security
in the ASEAN region can perhaps be explained only if we speculate
on the outcome of the elections.

This article attempts to illustrate the possible scenarios
based on the impact of the Indonesian elections on the ASEAN
region.

One of the scenarios is that after the election, the
political leaders in Jakarta, whoever they are, will continue to
move the political reform process toward a stable democratic
order. But it is contingent on whether the new government will be
able to have a full grip on the economy, and restore investor
confidence, enforce the law and eradicate corruption and nepotism
within the bureaucracy.

Image building after all is part of the objectives that have
to be achieved through such political reforms.

If the next government were able to manage those challenges
successfully, then the prospect for democratic consolidation
would improve. If so, this would certainly be a positive
contribution to the building of democratic principles, which are
the foundation of national and regional stability and
cooperation.

A stable, strong and democratic Indonesia would strengthen its
leadership role in ASEAN. This is very important for the
maintenance of long-term regional stability. It will also
enhance and strengthen ASEAN capacity for collective action based
on "accepted" democratic values and principles. Conversely, an
unstable Indonesia with its fragile democratic life -- would make
the regional security environment uncertain and even dangerous.

This would mean that while the countries in the region highly
value the strategic importance of Indonesia, failure in the
democratic process could turn Indonesia into a trouble spot.

For most countries in Southeast Asia, the overriding concern
about Indonesia is perhaps not whether it is democratic or not,
but when stability will return and how. They will be curious to
see how Indonesia will be able to balance its need for both
democracy and stability. While the people in Indonesia yearn for
democracy and aspire to be democratic, it is also true that it is
not the panacea for all ills.

What the ASEAN neighbors will wonder then is whether
Indonesia's search for stability will take a course toward more
democracy, or lead to a more authoritarian regime, and how can
the case for Indonesian democracy for long-term stability be
convincingly and clearly made to the Indonesians whose daily
lives are affected by instability and street violence?

The evolution of Indonesia's democracy could drive the
Southeast Asia security environment into a certain direction.
What we would hope to see is that violence-free elections and a
successful democratic transition in Indonesia could contribute
toward stability in Southeast Asia. Given that Indonesia is the
current chairman of ASEAN, a stable and democratic Indonesia
could help realize the newly proposed ASEAN's concept of
community. Can such an image help eliminate the perception that
instability and chaos is a chronic condition in Indonesia?