The odds are against Singapore's opposition

By John O'Callaghan

SINGAPORE (Reuters): Only the rashest punter would bet against the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) rolling to victory in Singapore's next general election.

Opposition politicians have long complained the system is stacked against them and that frequent legal action by PAP officials chills dissent. A government plan for new rules on political content on the Internet has raised fresh concerns.

But the reality remains that Singaporeans have little reason to rock a boat that has brought four decades of economic success.

"The election result is so foregone that there is really not any interest," said Chua Beng Huat, a sociology professor at the National University of Singapore who has written several books on the city state's politics.

"One thing that is stacked against the opposition parties is the last 40 years of economic success."

August 2002 is the election deadline but the smart money is on the school holidays in September or at the end of the year. Already voters are being warmed up with stories in the local media on policy and heartland issues such as housing and jobs.

"It's not a highly political society," said Hugh Young, a fund manager at Aberdeen Asset Management. "There's not any credible opposition and the government has continued to do an excellent job economically in what are tough circumstances."

After rocketing by 9.9 percent last year, Singapore's trade- driven economy is being forced to gear down by slowing demand in the key U.S. and Japanese markets, particularly for the electronics that make up more than half of exports.

The government has slashed already reduced growth forecasts for this year and Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong has warned the island's four million people to expect leaner times.

But Song Seng Wun, an economist at GK Goh Securities, said the downturn might prove to be a blessing for the PAP, particularly in wooing young voters who may be more skeptical.

"When things are looking up, it allows idle minds to vote with their hearts," he said. "When things are looking bad or potentially could become worse, people would be more concerned about job security and a roof over their heads."

The PAP is likely to campaign as it has in the past -- on its record and warnings that the opposition does not have what it takes to keep the economy on track in a volatile region.

Without question, the PAP has worked wonders in transforming a backwater into a regional powerhouse since Singapore's formal independence from the Malaysian Federation in 1965.

People enjoy high standards of healthcare and education, low unemployment and widespread ownership of state-built housing. The republic is clean, green and safe.

"People are always reluctant to admit that the government here is actually quite good," said Young.

"The stock market basically assumes 'steady as she goes' -- continued liberalization economically ... continued opening in all senses. Nothing precipitous, because that's not how Singapore operates, but just a gradual moving of the boundaries."

Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has fueled speculation of an early election by saying the PAP manifesto would offer something for the old, the young, women and ethnic communities.

Lee -- also a brigadier general, chairman of the central bank and son of Singapore's founding father Lee Kuan Yew -- offered no specifics but said the government wanted to craft a vision all citizens could help to shape.

"A lot of Singaporeans do think like the government," said Chua. "When it comes to really challenging the political structure, there isn't that much new thinking."

The ruling party plays a role in almost all aspects of economic and social life, although critics say that paternalistic approach often comes at the expense of personal freedoms.

The government, which already reserves the "right of reply" to press reports it deems in need of correction or clarification, recently warned the foreign media not to "engage in" the city state's politics but has left vague exactly what that means.

Civil rights groups and opposition politicians also decry government plans to introduce new -- and as yet unspecified -- Internet guidelines before the election.

"Limits are necessary because, while the Internet has great potential and utility, it also has its dangers," Lee said while launching the PAP's new website this month.

The Web's anonymity, the deputy prime minister said, opened the door to hoaxes and irresponsible opinions.

The National Solidarity Party, one of the more vocal and active of 22 opposition parties, said the existing Internet Code of Practice precluded the need for new rules.

"We must learn to respect our Singapore citizens, and give them room to explore and build up their ideas and creative talents," it said in a statement.

The operators of TalkingCock.com, an equal opportunity satirist of Singaporean foibles, said they were disappointed but not surprised by the talk of restricting websites.

"It may be well-intentioned, but there is a tendency in Singapore -- not just amongst the politicians, mind -- to use sledgehammers to crack nuts," a spokesman told Reuters.

If past polls are anything to go by, the PAP will run unopposed in many constituencies, have close calls in a few and lose only a handful of parliament's 83 elected seats.

Singapore is divided into nine single seats -- usually the most hotly contested by the opposition -- and 15 wards that group three to six candidates, although the boundaries may be redrawn.

Under the "first past the post" system, the party winning the vote in a Group Representation Constituency takes all the seats.

In the previous two elections, opposition parties contested fewer than half the seats. But they still bristle at the notion that the PAP can dominate parliament when it won 61 percent of the vote in 1991 and 65 percent in the last election in 1997.

The government says the constituency cluster system ensures the representation of Indians and Malays, who are outnumbered by Chinese by a margin of three to one.

The PAP swept 81 seats in the 1997 poll, leaving the Workers' Party and the Singapore People's Party with one each.

Veteran opposition politician J.B. Jeyeratnam, best known for breaking the PAP's 16-year parliamentary monopoly in 1981, was defeated but won a seat under a "best loser" provision.

Jeyeratnam's political career is now threatened by a court judgment related to a defamation suit which could render him bankrupt and unable to run for re-election.

But opposition parties hope for a fighting chance with a proposed coalition called the Singapore Democratic Alliance.

With the population small and natural resources scarce, some older Singaporeans fear the young are succumbing to "shop 'til you drop" materialism at the expense of the "strive to survive" attitude that powered the nation's growth.

The young are also going to university in places like Australia, Britain, Canada and the United States, bringing home foreign ideas about free speech and the role of government.

"Among the older ones who went through a period of hardship during the separation of Malaysia and Singapore there is that genuine belief that the PAP is the best," said Song.

"But among the younger generation, for those who love travel and are Internet-savvy, they're becoming a bit more cynical -- they're the ones who may register those protest votes."