The number two man

The five-yearly meeting of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), which will elect the republic's president and vice president, is only four months away. But just the same, most people are still reluctant to speak about the future national leadership.

The reasons behind the mass silence are not pointless shyness nor unnecessary politeness, but rather a certainty that their opinions would be useless. This is because the ruling elite practices a long and efficacious method in electing those to the top spots.

Since President Soeharto will be surely reelected for a seventh term in March, the only relevant topic today is who will be the future vice president. Still, one does not see any lobbying activities -- much less campaigns -- by potential candidates. Nor are any questions asked about how many will be in the running or whether the winner will be decided upon behind closed doors.

Some politicians have vaguely eyed the second spot but have not been courageous enough to speak up. Perhaps they remember the number of potential candidates for future leadership that have been smashed by the system.

Some political forces have said they would only announce their candidates when the time was right, but news of their trivial activities have paled into insignificance.

These attitudes are part of our culture, and the timid but ambitious politicians have been defeated by the political system even before they approach the battle field.

A political observer has said that making so much fuss about the matter today will only lead to chaos. He was apparently afraid there would be too many candidates from various social groupings outside the country's highest lawmaking body.

On the other hand, every citizen with a fair idea of politics is aware of how strategic the second spot has become. In fact it has been regarded a strategic post for the past 15 years, ever since Soeharto passed his prime by local standards.

However, the notion became less of an issue after he emerged as healthy as ever after each presidential term. But next year Soeharto will be 77 years old, far beyond the life expectancy of the average Indonesian.

Now that the nation is facing a complex future, many have come to believe that it is once again an issue worth considering, if only for the setting of the criteria for Soeharto's second in command between 1998 and 2003. Many people are aware that an heir apparent needs preparation and a long apprenticeship.

Under this consideration the question now is: should the making of a vice president be left to the MPR alone? Should the people remain silent about the important issue of their future and -- as Indonesians like to say -- let the sky fall on them?

Or should they sleep to the accompaniment of lullaby-like rumors amid murky activities and confusing speculation, only to wake up to the dizzying reality that even political pundits don't appear to know what is going on.

It is impressive to see how Singapore and Malaysia prepare their future leaders. But we still remember how Indonesia and the Philippines submerged into chaos in the aftermaths of presidents Sukarno and Ferdinand Marcos, under whom citizens were not allowed to think about their future.

If people were to discuss candidates for the second most important post it would not mean they were venturing outside the system. Instead they would be providing the MPR factions with new ideas and input.