The myth of the first 100 days and Susilo's real challenges

The myth of the first 100 days and Susilo's real challenges

James Van Zorge and Dennis Heffernan, Jakarta

As he steps into the palace, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono must
address the unrealistic expectation that he should show
substantial achievements within his first 100 days in office.
Local analysts are already talking about the mythical 100 days
that, in fact, has been long recognized by more thoughtful
political pundits as an unfair and fallacious way of grading a
new president.

The history of modern American presidencies shows that they
have had weak if not unsuccessful starts, and survived them.
Presidents have been judged largely on their later achievements.
Those with successful starts were rare and, often benefited from
special circumstances -- usually a crisis. Most presidents who
tried to force results out of the first 100 days found that such
valiant efforts often failed, and frequently backfired.

In fact, the origin of "100 days" goes back to 1933, when a
severe depression was gripping the United States. The Great
Depression was the gravest crisis in American history since the
Civil War. The mood in Washington was one of deep despair and
there was a pervasive sense of great urgency. Then came Franklin
Roosevelt: When he took office, he immediately got to work,
sending bill after bill after bill to Congress.

According to historians, many Congressmen passed FDR's
proposed bills without even bothering to read them. After
Roosevelt's whirlwind of legislating, the notion of 100 days was
popularized, much to the chagrin of those following in his
footsteps.

Doris Kearns Goodwin, a famous American historian, notes that
every president since Roosevelt wishes that the term "100 days"
could be exorcised from the language. In a recent television
interview, Goodwin made the interesting point that "in fact, a
story is told about a speech written for John Kennedy in which he
said all these promises I have made will be accomplished in the
next 100 days. JFK angrily slashed out the 100 days and made it
1,000 days instead, not wanting to be compared to Roosevelt, at
which point of course that 1,000 days would end with his own
life, which he could never have predicted at that time."

It is natural that Indonesians would like to see their new
president produce fast results. Despite the country's great
achievements over the past six years, there is the recognition
that much remains to be done. Indonesians are hoping for a
cleaner, more effective government, as well as a higher standard
of living.

Investors are hoping that Susilo and his economics cabinet can
improve the business climate and therefore trigger higher growth.
The international community is worried about Jakarta's war
against terrorism, and they will be looking for signs that the
president and his security apparatus can prove more effective
than his predecessors in cracking down against Jamaah Islamiyah.

Of course, making progress on these fronts will be a long
campaign. Eradicating corruption has never proven to be a simple
exercise in any country, and it should be seen as a long-term
project, bound to be fraught with frustration and political
minefields. Tackling terrorism will also be a daunting challenge;
although there might be some short-term victories, dismantling
Indonesia's extensive terrorist network could take many years to
achieve, and there are bound to be more innocent victims along
the way.

Realizing higher levels of capital investment is, practically
speaking, the least difficult of the major challenges that lie
ahead. Still, even if the new government does all the right
things, it will take at least one year before capital starts
flowing back.

Perhaps Susilo's greatest liability is not that he comes from
a small, minority party. Rather, when stepping into office, he
will find a lack of any sense of urgency, and a failure to
recognize that the entire government must work together with the
president to solve the nation's ills. Now, even before the keys
to the palace have yet to be turned over, Akbar Tandjung has
declared that his Golkar party and PDI-P will serve as a "loyal"
opposition.

More likely, regardless of what Susilo proposes, Akbar
Tandjung will spend his days trying to undermine the presidency.
This assumes, of course, that Akbar will survive serious
challenges to his chairmanship of Golkar.

If Susilo is to overcome the challenges that lie ahead, then
first and foremost he must change the frame of the debate about
the president's performance. Because he enjoys a tremendous
mandate from the public, he could use it by painting a compelling
picture of the larger challenges facing the nation, and how it
will require the cooperation of the parliament -- not just a good
president -- to be successful.

He should also draw a reformist roadmap and share it with the
executive, judiciary, parliament and the public. By doing so, he
will provide everybody with a sense of direction and enable the
electorate to hold the entire government accountable for their
performance.

Finally, he should explain that it will take much more than
100 days to make substantial progress: For sure, it will take
1,000 days, or even more, to rid the country of its terrorists,
put more people back to work, and bring about a cleaner
government.

The writers are Jakarta based consultants and can be reached
at jvzorge@rad.net.id.