The millennium bug: Mild cold or nasty flu?

By Amir Sidharta

JAKARTA (JP): People have made such a big deal about the millennium bug. Recently, there has been a marked increase of advertisements offering assistance and consultation on how to deal with the potential problem that could be caused by systems failure due to the calendar systems within computers.

Actually, the millennium bug was identified early enough so that most computers in use today will not be effected by it. For example, Apple computer's date system since its initial inception has been programmed until 2039, so that there certainly will be no millennium bug problems for Apple users. Most likely, personal computer users using Windows and Macintosh operating systems will not be affected by the Y2K bug.

However, it is true that other programmed systems may be affected by the sudden change of year to 2000. In a program that registers only the last two digits of the year, the date will suddenly become 00. So, just as a precaution, it might be wise to follow the advice from Alfred Herzing, which was passed on through electronic mail. He suggests that we fill our cars with gasoline just before Dec. 31, 1999, because electricity might fail, thus gas pumps may not be working starting Jan 1, 2000. He also advises people to have two weeks of cash on hand before Dec. 31, 1999, as automated teller machines and banks may have problems. Similarly, we should have a two-week supply of nonperishable food and water, prescription medicine, candles, batteries and flashlights.

Computer controlled public transportation schedule monitors also may be affected, so Herzing advises people to be aware of the potential problem when planning to travel on New Year's Day, 2000. In America and Europe, many people may travel on New Year's Day and therefore are highly dependent on the controllers and scheduler in train and air traffic networks.

However, here in Indonesia, expatriates will most likely already be abroad, while locals are unlikely to be traveling on New Year's Day. Most middle class and upper middle class members of society will remain in bed with hangovers after big bashes welcoming the arrival of Y2K.

Herzing also advises people to obtain copies of bank, investment and credit card account statuses, homeowner's, earthquake, flood, car, life and health insurance policies. He also warns about Sept. 9, 1999 as a problem date (9/9/99). Some sloppy programmers use a 9999 code as a reset flag, and this might cause further problems. Therefore, perhaps it would also be wise to obtain records before Sept. 9, 1999, after Sept. 9, 1999 but before Dec. 31, 1999, and after Jan 1, 2000 so that you can compare documents for errors.

The great fuss about the next millennium has already affected us. Previously, the Indonesian government planned a political schedule culminating in the year 2000.

The government once planned to hold elections in May 1999 and hold a General Assembly of the legislature to prepare for a new elected government to emerge in 2000. However, this plan was scrapped.

In order to secure the 12th biennial to be held in the year 2000, the fine arts committee of the Jakarta Arts Council has insisted on holding the 11th Jakarta Biennial in November 1998 despite problems in obtaining funds to finance the event.

There must be many other institutions that have something big already planned for the year 2000.

Hence, countdowns to 2000 are big. Since New Year's Day, on the upper left corner of SCTV's screen, digits have appeared apparently indicating the number of days left until we finally hit 2000. At the ASEAN Secretariat, there is a large clock that also shows this countdown.

This countdown counter was launched at an event at Mal Taman Anggrek in West Jakarta on Aug. 19, 1998, 500 days to year 2000.

However, there seems to be a discrepancy. On Tuesday, Jan. 5, 1999, while SCTV indicated 361 days to 2000, the countdown clock at the ASEAN Secretariat showed the number 359. It seems that one of the two counters needs to be corrected. In any case, both counters might not indicate the days remaining until the new millennium after all.

I always thought millennia end -- not start -- at the thousandth year. So, if that is correct, then year 2000 would be the end of the second millennium, and not yet the beginning of the third millennium. Hence, the film Space Odyssey 2001, not Space Odyssey 2000. On Wednesday, Jan. 6, 1999, Kompas appeared with a counter that clarifies the matter: 360 days until Y2K, 726 days until the next millennium. So SCTV's counter is correct, while the ASEAN one needs to be corrected.

Actually, I don't know why people are making such a big deal of the next millennium. We know today, only a couple of years from 2001, that we are nowhere near the technological advances that people envisioned us to be able to accomplish by the next millennium, such as portrayed in the aforementioned movie.

While we may need to be aware of the bugs in entering the year 2000, entering the next millennium will surely be just be another day. We should not expect too much out of it, as nothing we do not already know just a few days before it's arrival is likely to suddenly surprise us on New Year's Day 2001.