The millennium bug: Mild cold or nasty flu?

The millennium bug: Mild cold or nasty flu?

By Amir Sidharta

JAKARTA (JP): People have made such a big deal about the
millennium bug. Recently, there has been a marked increase of
advertisements offering assistance and consultation on how to
deal with the potential problem that could be caused by systems
failure due to the calendar systems within computers.

Actually, the millennium bug was identified early enough so
that most computers in use today will not be effected by it. For
example, Apple computer's date system since its initial inception
has been programmed until 2039, so that there certainly will be
no millennium bug problems for Apple users. Most likely, personal
computer users using Windows and Macintosh operating systems will
not be affected by the Y2K bug.

However, it is true that other programmed systems may be
affected by the sudden change of year to 2000. In a program that
registers only the last two digits of the year, the date will
suddenly become 00. So, just as a precaution, it might be wise to
follow the advice from Alfred Herzing, which was passed on
through electronic mail. He suggests that we fill our cars with
gasoline just before Dec. 31, 1999, because electricity might
fail, thus gas pumps may not be working starting Jan 1, 2000. He
also advises people to have two weeks of cash on hand before Dec.
31, 1999, as automated teller machines and banks may have
problems. Similarly, we should have a two-week supply of
nonperishable food and water, prescription medicine, candles,
batteries and flashlights.

Computer controlled public transportation schedule monitors
also may be affected, so Herzing advises people to be aware of
the potential problem when planning to travel on New Year's Day,
2000. In America and Europe, many people may travel on New Year's
Day and therefore are highly dependent on the controllers and
scheduler in train and air traffic networks.

However, here in Indonesia, expatriates will most likely
already be abroad, while locals are unlikely to be traveling on
New Year's Day. Most middle class and upper middle class members
of society will remain in bed with hangovers after big bashes
welcoming the arrival of Y2K.

Herzing also advises people to obtain copies of bank,
investment and credit card account statuses, homeowner's,
earthquake, flood, car, life and health insurance policies. He
also warns about Sept. 9, 1999 as a problem date (9/9/99). Some
sloppy programmers use a 9999 code as a reset flag, and this
might cause further problems. Therefore, perhaps it would also be
wise to obtain records before Sept. 9, 1999, after Sept. 9, 1999
but before Dec. 31, 1999, and after Jan 1, 2000 so that you can
compare documents for errors.

The great fuss about the next millennium has already affected
us. Previously, the Indonesian government planned a political
schedule culminating in the year 2000.

The government once planned to hold elections in May 1999 and
hold a General Assembly of the legislature to prepare for a new
elected government to emerge in 2000. However, this plan was
scrapped.

In order to secure the 12th biennial to be held in the year
2000, the fine arts committee of the Jakarta Arts Council has
insisted on holding the 11th Jakarta Biennial in November 1998
despite problems in obtaining funds to finance the event.

There must be many other institutions that have something big
already planned for the year 2000.

Hence, countdowns to 2000 are big. Since New Year's Day, on
the upper left corner of SCTV's screen, digits have appeared
apparently indicating the number of days left until we finally
hit 2000. At the ASEAN Secretariat, there is a large clock that
also shows this countdown.

This countdown counter was launched at an event at Mal Taman
Anggrek in West Jakarta on Aug. 19, 1998, 500 days to year 2000.

However, there seems to be a discrepancy. On Tuesday, Jan. 5,
1999, while SCTV indicated 361 days to 2000, the countdown clock
at the ASEAN Secretariat showed the number 359. It seems that one
of the two counters needs to be corrected. In any case, both
counters might not indicate the days remaining until the new
millennium after all.

I always thought millennia end -- not start -- at the
thousandth year. So, if that is correct, then year 2000 would be
the end of the second millennium, and not yet the beginning of
the third millennium. Hence, the film Space Odyssey 2001, not
Space Odyssey 2000. On Wednesday, Jan. 6, 1999, Kompas appeared
with a counter that clarifies the matter: 360 days until Y2K, 726
days until the next millennium. So SCTV's counter is correct,
while the ASEAN one needs to be corrected.

Actually, I don't know why people are making such a big deal
of the next millennium. We know today, only a couple of years
from 2001, that we are nowhere near the technological advances
that people envisioned us to be able to accomplish by the next
millennium, such as portrayed in the aforementioned movie.

While we may need to be aware of the bugs in entering the year
2000, entering the next millennium will surely be just be another
day. We should not expect too much out of it, as nothing we do
not already know just a few days before it's arrival is likely to
suddenly surprise us on New Year's Day 2001.