The Mahathir Dilemma

Quit while you're ahead. That's the best and wisest advice anyone could give to a long serving political leader like Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. That is also probably what was in Mahathir's mind when he announced his intention to resign from his United Malays National Organization (UMNO) chairmanship on Saturday, taking the whole nation by surprise.

But when he retracted his resignation one hour later, he had obviously come to realize that resigning was easier said than done. Even if he genuinely wanted to resign -- and going by the statements of UMNO officials, he will still go ahead with this plan in the near future -- he has obligations that prevent him from stepping down anytime soon.

Those around him may argue that there is the unfinished business of leading Malaysia. Mahathir himself has admitted that his affirmative action policy of promoting the economic welfare of the bumiputra Malays has not been effective in making the predominant race in his country competitive in business. But this argument doesn't hold water, since this failure could either suggest that he should stay or make way for someone else to take charge.

The real motive of the people in his inner circle in keeping him in power is more self-serving. They are the ones who have profited from his leadership without the responsibilities. Many of these stand to lose more if he goes. They were probably the ones who convinced Mahathir to change his mind on Saturday and retract the resignation.

The real reason why Mahathir cannot resign just yet is because he has not really prepared his country for a smooth and effective succession. That is one responsibility that any leader, especially a leader of a country, cannot escape.

There is no doubt that his resignation is imminent because age has caught up with him. At 76, he is no longer as energetic as when he started his premiership 30 years ago. He knows that he will have to go soon. His greatest concern at this stage therefore should be for a smooth leadership succession, rather than tending to the many pieces of unfinished business. But here, like Indonesia's strongman Soeharto and the Philippine's Ferdinand Marcos, Mahathir falls short. He is simply not prepared.

The Malaysian leader has on more than one occasion mentioned that he will not go the way Soeharto and Marcos tragically ended their leadership, leaving their countries in total chaos. He is therefore fully aware of what lies in store for his country and his people if he makes the same mistake.

Soeharto and Marcos found that it was impossible for them to quit even if and when they wanted to. A dictator is like a man riding a tiger. He cannot dismount lest the tiger devour him. Both Soeharto and Marcos built their countries' political systems in such a repressive way that secured their hold on power, but at the same time kept at bay anyone who remotely challenged their leadership.

Each man built a system that destroyed the mechanism to produce and train political leaders from the grass roots, depriving their countries of generations of effective leaders. Soeharto and Marcos preferred to be surrounded by yes-men. While this allowed them to cling to power for many years, they eventually became the victims of their own "success". They both became imprisoned in their palaces, unable to quit even in their twilight years until they were forced to. And when they did step down, it came violently.

Soeharto and Marcos may have done some good for their people, but both men today are remembered more for bringing their countries to near destruction or economic bankruptcy.

The lessons of Soeharto and Marcos for Mahathir are clear. A political leader is judged successful, not only in terms of what he delivers during his leadership but also by what happens to the nation once he leaves office. Mahathir has brought Malaysia to economic prosperity and political stability. But if this is the legacy that he wants to leave behind, then he must do one more thing: Prepare for a smooth and orderly succession.

Here is the dilemma for Mahathir: He can only ensure this kind of succession by turning Malaysia into a democracy. That would mean opening up the political system, tolerating dissents and freeing the media from government censorship. Yet, these were the same means he used to prop up his power all these years. And he doesn't have much time left.

Can Mahathir pull it off? Let's hope so, for the sake of the Malaysian people and of the people in the region.