The lesson of Indian-Pakistani conflict

Alexei Bogaturov, Institute of U.S. and Canada Russian Academy of Sciences, Russian Information Agency Novosti, Moscow

Having eliminated one source of tension, the Taliban regime, the U.S. anti-terrorist operation in Afghanistan has given birth to another. It has destabilized the situation in Pakistan where there were many Taliban supporters, and the conflict in the country has extended to neighboring India where the activity of Islamic terrorist groups has surged. As a result, India and Pakistan, whose relations have left much to be desired for 50 years already, have found themselves on the brink of war.

A situation has developed which the world community considers to be serious, and fraught with dangerous and quite unpredictable consequences. The Indo-Pakistani conflict continues to cause understandable concern among the leading powers, most notably Russia and the U.S.

The present tension between India and Pakistan may be treated as a new-generation conflict, the first involving medium nuclear powers. The scenario that the entire world has instinctively been afraid of has turned into reality: States unburdened by responsibility for the destiny of the world with nuclear weapons at their disposal are in confrontation.

In the epoch of the great stand-off between the former Soviet Union and the U.S., the two powers realized only too well that if they were to wage a nuclear war, it would be a global catastrophe. After the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, despite the tension in bilateral relations and the continuing cold war, they did their best to avoid a direct conflict.

The policy of "nuclear deterrence" was based on self-restraint on the part of the world's two giants, which, while taking a responsible foreign-policy decision, had to take into account its possible consequences and guess the reaction of the opposite side.

Unfortunately, the proliferation of nuclear weapons was not contained. This has led to a still greater danger of a nuclear conflict, though at a limited, regional, level. However, this too is fraught with danger and destructive consequences, which may affect neighboring regions and influence the destinies of millions of people.

India and Pakistan are seemingly demonstrating their desire to avoid an armed conflict. The leaders have agreed to exchange information about the location of nuclear facilities so that attacks will not be launched against them if military operations begin. But if a true large-scale war is waged, there are no guarantees that the two sides will consistently refrain from the use of nuclear arms. Neither New Delhi nor Islamabad considers itself an aggressor, but both sides are getting ready to rebuff any aggression. If this is the case, war could break out at any moment.

So far it is hard to predict how the Indo-Pakistani conflict will end, but now it's clear that the whole system of containing the nuclear threat needs thorough reconsideration and perfection. It has become evident that, though it is a major element of the maintenance of international security, the Nuclear Non- proliferation Treaty is not enough. The need to work out a new global system of nuclear deterrence, which will become a reliable guarantee against a nuclear war, is obvious.