The Kremlin power vacuum

Now that his own physicians have disclosed the gravely precarious state of Boris Yeltsin's health, Russia faces a potentially volatile period of political uncertainty. Though less visibly turbulent than earlier crises, including the failed 1991 coup attempt, this period could prove no less important in determining whether Russia makes a successful transition to democracy.

The mystery of Yeltsin's infirmity and the Kremlin's Panglossian reports on his health have now been replaced by the sobering word that he is, even more than suspected, a very sick man. Recent medical tests, disclosed by the surgeon designated to operate on Yeltsin's failing heart, show that the Russian president probably suffered a heart attack during his strenuous campaign this spring. With his heart already damaged by arterial problems, and his kidneys and liver in poor condition, Yeltsin may be too weak to be a suitable candidate for the coronary bypass surgery that was initially planned for later this month.

As Yeltsin's doctors ponder the next step, aided by Michael DeBakey, the American heart specialist who has traveled to Moscow to act as a consultant, Russia's political leaders should put aside their rivalries and establish a united front for governing Russia in the weeks ahead. Yeltsin seems unlikely to resume his full duties any time soon, and may be unable to serve a second term at all.

Yeltsin has turned over some of his powers to Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, including control over the powerful ministries that manage Russian foreign policy and domestic law enforcement. Yeltsin has also agreed to give Chernomyrdin temporary command over Russia's still-formidable nuclear arsenal if doctors go ahead with the heart surgery.

But just under that orderly facade, there are signs of turmoil in the Kremlin as Chernomyrdin jousts for power with his main rivals, Alexander Lebed, the national security adviser, and Anatoly Chubais, Yeltsin's chief of staff. Chernomyrdin and Lebed, both likely future presidential aspirants, have made no secret of their mutual distrust since Lebed moved into the government after his strong showing in this year's election. The two men have clashed publicly over Lebed's plan for ending the war in Chechnya.

The intense rivalries are partly the legacy of Yeltsin's centralized leadership, which denied real power to any aide so that the president's power would remain supreme. While that may have succeeded in keeping top aides in check, it also left them accustomed to vying with one another, a dangerous habit when the leader is ailing or absent.

If the government fails to manage a steady transition of power, there are several men ready to exploit any sign of weakness, including the communist leader, Gennady Zyuganov, and the ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Zyuganov has already called on Yeltsin to resign.

It is not too soon for Yeltsin and his aides to develop a long-term strategy for governing Russia under an infirm president. The Russian Constitution provides for the prime minister to fill in for an incapacitated or dead president for three months, at which time new elections must be held. But the constitution offers no guidance on how power should be handled during a protracted illness.

Washington's relations with Moscow are already partly paralyzed by the power void in the Kremlin, and that will only get worse if lines of authority are not more clearly defined and Chernomyrdin fails to exercise the new authority he has. For Russians, the cost of confusion could be severe. After moving so far toward democracy in the last five years, Russia should not slip backward because its leaders are fighting for power under an ailing president.

-- The New York Times