The Kosovo model for East Timor

The Kosovo model for East Timor

It is not often that anything from the turbulent Balkans can
be cited as a model for others to follow. But pending terms for
ending civil war in the Yugoslav province of Kosovo suggests what
might be done about the equally troubled Indonesian region of
East Timor.

Thoroughly tired of Kosovo's dangerous civil war, Western
allies ordered its factions to negotiate a cease-fire promptly,
providing great autonomy while keeping it within Yugoslavia
legally. After three years, the long-term political status will
be considered again.

Autonomy of sorts is already on offer for East Timor, the
half-island Indonesia seized from Portugal in 1975 as its 27th
province. But that has not been enough to end fighting which led
to some 200,000 deaths; many East Timorese want full
independence.

And that is precisely what Jakarta offered last week. In a
surprise statement, it vowed to walk away and leave East Timor
alone but free if the present autonomy terms are rejected. But
that may be a bit of a poisoned chalice for all concerned; quick
independence could fuel prolonged civil war in East Timor and
more separatism elsewhere around Indonesia.

Thus the Kosovo example seems relevant: It envisions an
extremely high degree of autonomy within the existing national
framework for now, with the promise of reaching a long-term
political solution at a fixed date.

Such a plan could let East Timor stop fighting and start
building, reviving a shattered economy. Meanwhile, no political
options would have been closed for any group. With luck, some
peace and prosperity might bring a reasonable compromise when the
time comes.

So the Kosovo plan seems a useful precedent for negotiators to
consider. They might even call it one country, two systems.

-- The South China Morning Post, Hong Kong