The Kosovo model for East Timor

It is not often that anything from the turbulent Balkans can be cited as a model for others to follow. But pending terms for ending civil war in the Yugoslav province of Kosovo suggests what might be done about the equally troubled Indonesian region of East Timor.

Thoroughly tired of Kosovo's dangerous civil war, Western allies ordered its factions to negotiate a cease-fire promptly, providing great autonomy while keeping it within Yugoslavia legally. After three years, the long-term political status will be considered again.

Autonomy of sorts is already on offer for East Timor, the half-island Indonesia seized from Portugal in 1975 as its 27th province. But that has not been enough to end fighting which led to some 200,000 deaths; many East Timorese want full independence.

And that is precisely what Jakarta offered last week. In a surprise statement, it vowed to walk away and leave East Timor alone but free if the present autonomy terms are rejected. But that may be a bit of a poisoned chalice for all concerned; quick independence could fuel prolonged civil war in East Timor and more separatism elsewhere around Indonesia.

Thus the Kosovo example seems relevant: It envisions an extremely high degree of autonomy within the existing national framework for now, with the promise of reaching a long-term political solution at a fixed date.

Such a plan could let East Timor stop fighting and start building, reviving a shattered economy. Meanwhile, no political options would have been closed for any group. With luck, some peace and prosperity might bring a reasonable compromise when the time comes.

So the Kosovo plan seems a useful precedent for negotiators to consider. They might even call it one country, two systems.

-- The South China Morning Post, Hong Kong