The Israel-Jordan peace scorecard

By Megan Goldin

TEL AVIV (Reuters): The historic treaty Israel and Jordan signed five years ago has held firm in the face of violence and diplomatic rows but peace is far from flourishing in the way its architects hoped.

Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Jordan's King Hussein forged the accord that was hailed in Israel as the most tangible peace deal yet with an Arab neighbor. It was signed on Oct. 26, 1994.

Rabin, who was assassinated in 1995, and King Hussein, who died of cancer in February, established an especially warm personal relationship after hammering out the deal in a series of secret meetings.

The peace has been somewhat fruitful.

A joint Israeli-Jordanian industrial zone employs about 6,000 Jordanians and enjoys free trade status with the United States. Three more zones are on the drawing board including one straddling the Israeli-Jordanian border.

In an unprecedented move with an Arab country, Israel has given its military-industry plants permission to sell arms to Jordan. The countries announced plans in September to upgrade telecommunication links by laying a fibre-optic cable.

But overall successes are few.

"The scoreboard of the past five years of peacemaking may not be as peacemakers had hoped," Jordan's Prince Hassan, the late King Hussein's brother, told a Tel Aviv University conference to mark the treaty's fifth anniversary this month.

The prince stood out amongst a dearth of Jordanian participants at the conference which Israel's Foreign Ministry called the main commemorative event since no official celebrations were planned.

The paucity of Jordanians at the event underscored Israeli academics' concerns about a growing trend by professional unions in Jordan to punish members who have contacts with Israel.

The Jordan Press Association this week expelled three prominent journalists for visiting Israel. All of Jordan's professional associations have banned members from carrying out acts that would contribute to "normalizing" ties with Israel.

While Israel's bungled assassination attempt on Hamas leader Khaled Mashal in Amman incensed Jordanians in 1997, most of their frustration was sparked by right-wing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's slowing of peace moves with Palestinians.

Palestinians make up a majority of Jordan's population and Jordanians cannot tolerate peace with Israel moving forward in leaps and bounds while peace with the Palestinians stands still.

Rabin's protege Ehud Barak, who became prime minister in July, has revived peacemaking with the Palestinians and this bodes well for Israeli-Jordanian relations.

Barak and King Abdullah of Jordan, King Hussein's son and chosen heir, have begun cultivating a personal relationship that Asher Susser, a Tel Aviv University expert on Jordan, said was critical for peace to prosper.

"It has to be a relationship of genuine mutual trust and strategic understanding," Susser said.

Barak has appointed a senior official to see to it that plans for such projects as the joint Eilat-Aqaba airport earmarked to have opened years ago finally get off the ground.

The most critical phase of peacemaking has begun with Israel and the Palestinians setting themselves a deadline of September 2000 to finish negotiating thorny permanent status issues including borders, refugees, water and Jerusalem.

"The future of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan will be shaped by these negotiations," said Israeli Ambassador to Jordan Oded Eran.

He was referring in particular to the fate of the Palestinian refugees, a majority of whom live in Jordan and hold Jordanian citizenship.

Susser traces rising Jordanian disappointment in part to Jordan's economic woes. Jordan has a foreign debt of more than US$7 billion with rising unemployment and poverty.

Many hoped peace would radically alter Jordan's economy in a short time.

"The disappointment results in the main from expectations that were unrealistic in the first place," he said.

Israeli security checks on freight and trucks crossing from Jordan to the West Bank have riled Jordanian businessmen who see the measures as an excuse for protectionism.

They desperately want a piece of Israel's virtual monopoly of the $2 billion a year market in the West Bank, home to more than two million Palestinians aspiring to independence.

Jordan had hoped for an annual trade with the West Bank to the tune of $200 million when it signed the deal, Susser said. Israeli Foreign Ministry figures for 1998 put it at $21 million when Israeli imports from Jordan stood at $17 million.