The fastest growing technology worldwide

The Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) telecommunications system has become the fastest growing technology worldwide, thanks to its increasing number of users.

The subscriber base for 3G CDMA2000 1X and 1x EV-DO expanded by 10.5 million in the third quarter of 2003, to reach 64.5 million users, while the total number of CDMA users worldwide grew to 174 million during that period, according to the latest data issued by the CDMA Development Group (CDG) -- the world trade association formed to foster the development and use of CDMA technology.

"CDMA2000 is expanding rapidly and is contributing to significant advancements in CDMA across the globe. The CDMA2000 subscriber base doubled during the first nine months of 2003, and operators are reporting that the high demand for CDMA2000 services is spurring growth in net additions and boosting revenues." Perry LaForge, executive director of the CDG said in a press statement posted on the organization's website www.cdg.org.

"We expect this trend to continue and anticipate that the CDMA2000 base will reach 75 million by the end of the year," he said.

CDMA2000 is the clear leader in data services. According to the data provided by EMC -- the world's major researcher of the wireless industry -- CDMA2000 accounted for 54 percent of users worldwide and 74 percent in regions outside Western Europe in the second quarter of 2003.

While only 2 percent of worldwide General System for Mobile communication (GSM) subscribers use General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) data services, more than 14 percent of CDMA subscribers utilize CDMA2000 data services.

In the year between September 2002 and September 2003, CDMA added more than 39 million subscribers, which represents a 29 percent growth compared to 24 percent for GSM, 7 percent for Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA) and 20 percent for the overall industry.

CDMA will continue to capture a greater market share and, according to Deutsche Bank, its share will double to reach 26 percent by 2008, with 60 percent of CDMA subscribers using CDMA2000 1X, 1x EV-DO or 1x EV-DV.

Asia-Pacific was the fastest growing region for CDMA technologies, fueled by rapid expansion in key markets China and India.

Carriers in the Asia-Pacific region added 21 million new CDMA subscribers in the past year, which represented a 42-percent annual growth.

In India, CDMA has reached more than 5.5 million subscribers and is growing at a rate of 700,000 per month.

In the Americas, CDMA carriers added 18 million new subscribers in the past year to reach 102 million users. In the U.S, CDMA continues to be the technology of preference.

According to the EMC database, CDMA subscribers accounted for 44 percent of all U.S. wireless subscribers in the third quarter, compared to 26 percent for TDMA and 15 percent for GSM. The CDMA2000 base grew by 2.5 times in the Americas, and today, one in four CDMA users in the region has access to 3G services.

The third quarter of 2003 also saw the deployment of 10 new CDMA2000 networks. There are currently 71 live networks in 36 countries across six continents.

Other data, however, indicates that the development of infrastructure for all mobile telecommunications systems such as GSM, GPRS, TDMA is not so encouraging.

According to a report published by Dell'Oro Group, the total mobility infrastructure market will drop by about one percent in 2004 to US$25.7 billion, then begin to rebound in 2005 with a 5 percent growth.

Growth is projected to accelerate to 13 percent in 2006 on the strength of new deployment in China and CDMA 1X-EV-Do and DV upgrades.

Dell'Oro Group expects the total market, driven largely by Wide (band) Code Division Multiple Access (WCDMA), to increase by 7 percent in both 2007 and 2008, reaching $34.8 billion in 2008.

In 2006, WCDMA infrastructure revenues and base station shipments are set to surpass those of the GSM-based system.

"Several key trends point toward recovery," Greg Collins, senior director of Dell'Oro Group, said in a statement posted on www.3newsroom.com.

For the handset market, a survey indicates that the increase in the sales of cameraphones has contributed to a rise in the total sales of the world's cellular sales.

According to a report issued by surveying company Visiongain, the rising popularity of cameraphones and smart phones is one reason behind the recovery of the cellular market.

Attracted to new designs, expanded features and capabilities, and falling prices, consumers are flocking to purchase new phones, poised to begin a prolonged replacement cycle as they upgrade to the next generation, color-screen models.

Visionagain estimates that cameraphone sales will grow by 50 percent annually for the next four to five years.

Cameraphones were only introduced to the market toward the end of 2002 but have seen remarkable sales figures, with an estimated 55 million sold worldwide in 2003, accounting for 14 percent of the total shipment.

Cameraphone sales have already outpaced those of digital cameras in the first half of the year, as well as surpassed the sale of PDAs.

This increase will contribute to the sale of 3G phone as consumers demand more multimedia functions from their handsets.

Text messaging has had phenomenal success and cameraphones will help the take-up of multimedia messaging, attaching sound and picture to the message.

New third-generation handsets include further camera capabilities for taking short video clips that can be sent as part of the message.

Replacement rates in mature markets and new subscribers in developing markets will keep yearly handset sales at around the 460-million mark in the next term, said Visiongain.

-- The Jakarta Post