The evolving strategic balance in Asia

By Juwono Sudarsono

The following article is based on prepared remarks made at the China-Indonesia Security Dialog, organized by the China Institute of International and Strategic Studies and the National Defense University in Beijing on March 28-29, 1996.

BEIJING: The evolving strategic balance in Asia and the Pacific today comprises the changing political, economic and military priorities of China, the United States, Japan and Russia. By 2010 the strategic quadrangle should be consummated into a new stable distribution of power reflecting a more enduring political, economic and military arrangement among the four major powers.

The strategic balance has far reaching implications for the Asia-Pacific and profoundly affects the development trajectories of other states in the region. More importantly, the effective implementation of cooperative engagement and comprehensive security require understanding of the current transition from a situation largely determined by the combined preponderance of the United States and Japan to a more balanced equilibrium incorporating the role of China and Russia.

The transition is definitely moving toward a more Asia-centric security paradigm with China and Japan as chief determinants. China's role is especially pivotal for the simple reason that it will be the second largest economy in the world by 2005. China's vast physical expanse, population and its geopolitical setting connecting the Asia land mass of Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia merit the attention and understanding of all of its Asia- Pacific neighbors.

Although greater attention and effort will continue to focus on economic interaction involving all APEC economies, the continued success of that process will be determined by how the security dimension will be handled within a new distribution of power among China, Japan, the United States and Russia. A clearer identification of the convergence between economic transformation and changing security priorities need to be mapped out and periodically assessed. Therein lies the challenge of matching progress in Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) with tangible benchmarks in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) consultative process.

As economic growth in the region advances and the need to secure energy resources becomes more acute, military tensions in the region increase the possibility that combined strategic, conventional and low intensity considerations will have to be factored in along with diplomatic maneuvering over global trade, investment and financing rules. Nations which need to sustain growth rates of 8 percent to 10 percent for the next decade must calibrate their energy needs and link that strategy with appropriate security policies commensurate with the region's specific features.

Although in security terms Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia are related, there is merit in separating the two regions into distinct categories. Each region has its peculiar strategic circumstance and local characteristics. The South China and East China sea lines of communication, for example, are crucial for Japan's economic viability since they comprise more than 80 percent of Japan's sea-borne trade. That viability affects the quality of U.S.-Japan alliance structure which in turn influences the strategic balance in the Korean peninsula.

The sensitivity of the North Korea nuclear weapon build-down through the October 1994 Agreed Framework attest to the delicate nature of combining nuclear, conventional, and low intensity levels of military strategy. These will influence the scope and timing of Korean unification.

The Spratly Islands dispute is too intricate to be discussed through diplomatic means alone. Every percentage growth rate that an Asia Pacific nation strives to sustain ultimately affects the energy needs of its immediate and region-wide neighbors. Depending on the situation, forward based strategies through prepositioning and selective theater forces deployment will have to be linked to a credible deterrence capability.

In the decade ahead, that deterrence will increasingly involve the use of electronic-based air and naval forces capable of integrating radar, surveillance and communications systems. The air, sea, rail traffic and logistical systems which China is developing with its neighbors in mainland Southeast Asia are enhancing inter-region cooperation. New technologies employed in conjunction with the imperative to secure access to off-shore and undersea energy resources will become more significant. Along with increased regionalism and globalism in trade, investments and finance, all economies in the region must factor in the security dimension.

Increased linkages between enhance economic imperatives and need for commensurate military capabilities result in four national trends that merit special attention.

* The availability of surplus weapons and equipment from NATO and ex-Warsaw Pact countries have also encouraged substantial growth in defense expenditure. Though these developments do not necessarily lead to a regional arms race, even phased modernization sustained well into the next century can affect priorities and perceptions of national security.

* Given the uncertainties of the evolving strategic environment, many Asia Pacific countries are developing their defense industry capabilities. In the past five years Japan, China, the two Koreas, Singapore and other countries in the region have invested heavily in local defense industries. No country can be completely independent of foreign suppliers. But the emphasis towards greater self reliance is understandable, since a significant portion of defense industry enhancement may result in spin-offs to the broader civilian economy;

* Following the adoption of the Law of the Sea Convention in November 1994, many nations in the region have legally acquired territorial rights of the exclusive economic zone. Substantial resource opportunities have led to expanded security concerns and responsibilities. Since jurisdiction over these territorial waters overlap, there is greater need to coordinate policies exploring options on establishing joint responsibilities rather than claims of based on sovereignty.

* The paradox of growing economic success leading to affordability in purchasing new weapons and new equipment pose serious challenges to building confidence among nations that have facilitated, if not stimulated, defense spending. Intra-regional defense cooperation on a bilateral and or multilateral dimensions require skill and patience to match progress reached in economic cooperation. Additionally, there has been an important image- building and prestige factors involved depending on the leadership style adapted in individual countries.

The writer is Vice Governor of the National Resilience Institute, Jakarta.